Category: Forecast Models

Cool, Damp Open To The Weekend…

As we get set to open the weekend, our weather pattern remains unchanged from the past couple of days. The Ohio Valley will continue to be dominated by a cut off area of low pressure sitting and spinning overhead. Unseasonably cool air, along with periods of showers will be the result. Similar to Wednesday, stronger showers could contain small hail, particularly during the afternoon.

Steadiest and most concentrated rain appears to come during the morning hours Friday. Here’s what the radar may look like predawn and mid morning Friday. Rain will be tracking west or southwest (pivoting around the upper low).

Additional scattered showers and embedded thunder will remain in our forecast Saturday.


In general, additional rainfall should be in the 0.50″-1″ range, but there will be isolated heavier totals under more persistent rain bands.


It’ll be a continued cool stretch with highs both Friday and Saturday in the mid 60s (at best).

The second half of the weekend certainly looks like the better of the two, but we caution that these cut off lows can be fickle and surprises can result in regards to timing. At any rate, a drier pattern will build in early next week, along with moderating temperatures. 

Looking ahead, a significant storm system looms just beyond the 7-day that will require our attention in the days ahead.

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Cool And Unsettled Is The Theme…

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VIDEO: Tuesday Morning Update…

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Hot, Dry Pattern Continues For Now; MUCH Cooler Next Week…

The remainder of the work week and this weekend will remain dry and unseasonably warm.  Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s through the period. Strong ridging will keep us rain-free with plentiful sunshine.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_12A “backdoor” cold front will approach the region from the northeast late in the weekend, but won’t have enough “umph” to push the drier, cooler air our friends across the northeast and mid Atlantic will enjoy our way.

gfs_t2m_b_ma_14The evolution of the pattern from an unseasonably warm, dry regime to a much cooler, autumnal feel will, undoubtedly, feature showers and thunderstorms as we transition.  Modeling continues to waffle back and forth in regards to rainfall totals.  As of now, we’ll highlight Monday-Wednesday with increased rain chances.

gfs_tprecip_ky_28Thereafter, we turn MUCH cooler.  Data suggests Tuesday-Friday features temperatures much more like we’d expect for late September.  Lows in the 45-50 degree range, along with highs between 65-70 can be expected.

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September: Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

Month-to-date, September has been a warm (+3.5 degrees) and wet (+1.17″) month across central Indiana.

month-tdevmonth-ppercThe warmth continues in the days ahead, but we’re going to run much drier, overall, as strong ridging remains the dominant factor through late week.

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cfs_tprecip_anom_conus_2016092000_21The past (90) days have featured hefty rains across the Mid West.

nws_precip_conus2_90Late season heat will grip most of the east over the upcoming (7) days. Note those population areas (nearly 90% of the lower 48) to experience at, or above, 80 degree heat between now and next Tuesday. Even areas into the Lakes and New England get in on the late summer feel.

ndfd_pop_over_80_8In the shorter term, an isolated shower is possible this evening, but most should remain dry as the air is very dry across the region.

hires_ref_indy_16The upper air pattern features strong ridging over the central and east over the upcoming several days. A cold front and associated trough will deliver cooler air by the early to middle part of next week.

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4In between the warmth and pending cooler, more fall-like, air will be a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week. Modeling differs on precipitation amounts, but, as of now, heavy rains aren’t looking likely.

gefs_qpf_ens_ky_33As mentioned, early to middle parts of next week should feature temperatures much closer to where we should be this time of year, if not a few degrees below average.

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