Category: Forecast Models

We’ve been relatively spoiled so far this summer- both in regards to temperature and precipitation.  That said, as we approach the second half of July, things appear to be changing for the hotter and drier side of things.

July, so far, has been very pleasant, locally.  BTW- another push of drier air is inbound that should lead to a nice weekend, including low humidity values.

Ensemble data continues to suggest that the mean ridge position (hot dome) develops over the eastern portion of the country early next week before slowly retrograding northwest with time.

By the middle and latter portions of next week, the hot dome is set up in a position that will yield an extended stretch of hot temperatures across the state, including multiple mid-90 degree highs across central IN.

Given the current look of the ridge position, this would also be a rather dry pattern, as well, as the storm and rain track would shift north across the Canadian border into the northern Great Lakes states.  (Follow that 588 line above for a good indicator of the storm track).

One always has to be careful in trying to predict the timing of the ridge breaking down/ overall placement this time of year (models can struggle), but for now it appears as if we really heat things up and dry things out as we move through next week- especially the middle and latter portions of the week.