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Category: Forecast Models
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/happy-halloween-active-pattern-continues-as-we-move-into-november/
Oct 29
Unsettled Pattern Continues…
Wet weather will return Halloween, but we still believe the more concentrated rain will be “shoved” to our southeast as trick-or-treating begins in earnest across most central Indiana neighborhoods. Unfortunately,…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unsettled-pattern-continues/
Oct 28
Looking At The Week Ahead: Strong Winds This Afternoon And A Wet Pattern Is On Deck…
I. Showers followed by wind: A fast moving storm system will sweep through the Ohio Valley as we close the weekend. Showers will accompany the leading edge of this storm system (this morning), followed by strong and gusty winds (even stronger than this morning) this afternoon and evening. In some cases, winds will gust 45 to 50 MPH. Hunker down!
II. Wet Halloween: A cold front will approach the state Tuesday evening into our Halloween. Widespread rain is expected Wednesday, BUT the silver lining may be that the bulk of precipitation will be shoved to our southeast before most trick-or-treaters take to the streets.
III. Chilly Open To November: Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town behind the cold front and set the stage for an unseasonably chilly open to November. Generally, lows will fall into the middle 30s and highs will top out in the upper 40s for the first few days of the month.
IV. Raw Saturday: It’s a “rinse and repeat” scenario as next weekend opens raw and wet thanks to a new storm system moving through the region. Gusty showers and unseasonably cool temperatures can be expected Saturday. Note the possibility of wet snow to fall on the northern periphery of the storm system through IA, MN, and WI. (Signs of the times).
V. Wet Pattern: After a long stretch of dry weather through the balance of October, a big shift in the pattern is taking place now and will continue to promote well above normal rainfall as we move through the first couple weeks of November. In some cases, the upcoming (10) days alone may yield 3″ to 4″ of rain in some areas of the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-at-the-week-ahead-strong-winds-this-afternoon-and-a-wet-pattern-is-on-deck/
Oct 27
Active Pattern Returns…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-pattern-returns/
Oct 26
Friday Evening Rambles: Wet Pattern Returns, But The Waters Are “Muddy” Concerning Temperatures…
It’s a new day, but unfortunately, there isn’t really any significant change with respect to the overall clarity of the first half of November- at least from a temperature perspective. On the other hand, we remain supremely confident on the return of a “busy” pattern from a precipitation stand point.
With the 12z update, the European ensemble data remains the colder solution when compared to its counterpart (GEFS) in the medium to long range period- or Days 10-15
With that said, data does agree on the more active and wetter than average pattern continuing (from now) through the period.
We’ll continue to look over the data this weekend to see if agreement can be reached on temperatures between the various modeling and update things accordingly. As things stand now, we still anticipate a “pull back” in the anomalous chill around the mid month time frame, but stay tuned. As the mean trough axis transitions into the central portion of the country, the more active storm track up through the Ohio Valley should continue.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/friday-evening-rambles-wet-pattern-returns-but-the-waters-are-muddy-concerning-temperatures/