Category: Forecast Models

Major Temperature Swings: Summer-Like Mid-Week; Sweater Weather This Weekend…

Central Indiana will undergo significant temperatures swings over the upcoming week.  A southerly and southwesterly flow will push an unseasonably warm and moist airmass north to encompass all of the region as we progress through Wednesday and Thursday.

As a cold front slices into the summer-like warmth (highs will approach 80° Wednesday afternoon), scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into Thursday.

We then will shift gears rather abruptly as we move through the latter portions of the work week and on into the weekend with well below normal chill.  In fact, if current data comes to fruition, most of the weekend will be spent in the 40s.

Factor in a stiff northeast wind and periods of rain, we have the makings for a downright “raw” weekend.  We suggest having indoor activities planned this weekend as an extended period of damp, blustery, and unseasonably cool weather awaits.

We still have a few days to continue watching the data, but early indications suggest locally heavy rainfall is possible (1″-2″) across the region…

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Looking At The Week Ahead…

The second half of the weekend will feature beautiful weather, albeit breezy conditions at times.  Strong southwesterly winds will gust upwards of 40 MPH this afternoon, but also aid in pushing mid to upper 70s northward into central Indiana.  Despite the strong winds, we still recommend finding a way to get outside and enjoy this weather!

Highs will run close to 15° above average this afternoon.

Stormy weather returns Monday as a frontal boundary slips into the state.  A couple storms may become strong or severe Monday afternoon and the Storm Prediction Center highlights northwestern portions of the state for a Slight Risk.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with any severe storm that may develop.

High pressure returns for midweek and supplies a dry regime, along with increasing sunshine and temperatures that will run slightly above average (mid-40s at night and 65°-70° during the day).

There are questions once to the end of the period as the GFS and European handle the evolution of our late-week storm differently.  The GFS brings energy out into the Ohio Valley and results in unsettled weather returning Friday, continuing into Easter weekend, while the European is slower.  We’ll keep an eye on things over the next few days and update accordingly.  The GFS suggests some localized heavier downpours would be possible in the Friday-Sunday period as the majority of the 7-day precipitation snapshot below falls within the timeframe.

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Word On The Weeklies…

New JMA Weeklies stream in on Thursday mornings and we send out a Thursday morning report, in detail, to our clients dissecting the latest data, but want to try and start making public comments on the model here, as well.

The overall idea after looking at the JMA Weeklies is wet and warm over the upcoming (4) weeks relative to average. That said, there will be periods of drier times, especially Week 1, and late season chill- as can be expected every April.

Week 1:

Week 2:

Weeks 3-4:

The big picture is one that shows a drier pattern developing across the East during Week 1, but we caution that this drier regime doesn’t look to “lock” in.  Data suggests we get back to an active pattern between Week’s 2-4, biased wetter than normal in the Mid West and Plains.  The other screaming message is that a busy severe season should continue through the period.  Cold sets up across the Pacific Northwest, associated with the “mean” trough position, while spring-like warmth continues to build across our region in overall terms.  We know what that means as storms eject off the Rockies and track east…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/word-on-the-weeklies/

Ugly Close To The Work Week Gives Way To A Gorgeous Weekend…

Today certainly won’t be a “chamber of commerce” like day across central Indiana as we deal with numerous mixed rain and snow showers.  Already this morning, reports of wet snow are coming in to the forecast office from Whitestown, Lebanon, and Crawfordsville.

We’ll also add wind into the mix late morning through early evening, including gusts around 50 MPH.  Factor in the much colder temperatures with gusty northerly winds and you have the makings for a truly “raw” day across the region.  The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory until 8pm.

We should finally get rid of the precipitation later tonight and after a chilly Friday, weekend improvements are coming.  Lows both Friday and Saturday morning will be around freezing for most central Indiana neighborhoods.  After a cloudy start Friday, sunshine should return Friday afternoon as drier air works into the region.  With high pressure arriving this weekend, sunny conditions can be expected and with a southwest wind developing by Saturday afternoon, moderating temperatures are on deck as well.

In fact, after that cold start Saturday, highs should climb into the lower 60s Saturday afternoon and all the way into the lower to middle 70s Sunday afternoon!

Our next storm system will push into the Ohio Valley early next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

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Monday Morning Rambles…

1.)  Showers moved through the region early this morning and we’ll go through several dry hours before dealing with our next round of rain and thunderstorms by evening.  Most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms appears to come in the 5p-7p range.

2.)  We’ll get a breather on Tuesday, but our next storm system will move in quickly and begin impacting central Indiana during the day Wednesday.  A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and will require our attention over the next day, or so.  We’ll have more details with our updated 7-day later today.

3.)  We’ll get into the colder side of the storm to close the work week and thoughts will shift from storms to snow.  Wind-whipped snow showers will be a good bet in the unseasonably cold air Thursday into Friday morning.

4.)  Timing will once again be our friend as we push into the weekend.  Weak high pressure will arrive on the scene and help ensure dry conditions.  After a cold start Saturday, a moderating trend will develop.

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