Category: Forecast Models

Warmth Next Week Gives Way To A Cool Mid Month…

The refreshingly cool couple days we’ve recently enjoyed will begin to give way to moderating temperatures today.  Humidity levels will remain pleasant and it’ll be a great Labor Day weekend to spend time outdoors.  Highs will top out around 80 today and into the middle 80s Sunday.  Labor Day will feature the mercury climbing closer to the 90 degree mark.  – Fitting, I suppose, for the unofficial end to summer.

Humidity levels will be on the uptick come Monday evening and Tuesday as Gulf moisture is transported northward.

GulfMoistureIt’ll be a downright hot week, as well.  Temperatures will top out around 90 through the end of the short work week.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_4As we rumble into next weekend and the following week indications continue to point towards wetter and cooler times.

After a dry week ahead, rain and storms will come with that increased humidity next weekend.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_7Early numbers off the press suggest 1″-2″ rains possible next weekend.

The increased rain and storm chances signal another shift in the pattern towards a cooler one just beyond the Day 10 period.  From experience, I would look for this trough around mid month to trend deeper (more significant) as time draws closer.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_47It’s possible the first push of widespread 40s loom around the middle of the month.  Time will tell…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/warmth-next-week-gives-way-to-a-cool-mid-month/

VIDEO: More on Hermine and the Labor Day Weekend…

 

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Meteorological Fall Begins With A Fall-Like Feel…

Meteorological fall runs from Sept. 1st through Nov. 30th. With that said, it’s only fitting we feel more fall-like on this the first day of meteorological fall.  We note 24 hour dew point changes below.  The browns indicate much drier air pressing south over the next 24-36 hours.

DryAirYou’ll definitely notice the drier, crisp feel to the air upon stepping outside this morning.  If you try hard enough, you can almost smell fall!  🙂

That drier air will support multiple nights with low temperatures into the lower and middle 50s tonight through Sunday morning.  We may even have a few neighborhoods dip into the upper 40s Friday or Saturday morning.

hires_t2m_indy_55We know this is the beginning of the transitional time of the year.  Eventually, these cold fronts will back more and more of a punch as we rumble deeper into fall.  On the flip side, summer isn’t ready to go away without a fight.  In fact, temperatures well above normal will return for Labor Day, itself, and continue into the majority of next week.  A string of highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common next week.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6Longer term, there are indications that continue to support the idea of a potentially more significant cool down around mid September.  Stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/meteorological-fall-begins-with-a-fall-like-feel/

Changes Ahead…

Today into Wednesday will offer up more of what we’ve grown so accustomed to over the past several days- incredibly humid air, along with scattered heavy thunderstorms.  Similar to days past, the humid, “heavy” nature to our air will help fuel localized torrential downpours.

Thankfully, the hour glass has been “flipped” and time is running out on the humid air mass.  In fact, as early as Thursday morning, we’ll notice a huge change.  A northeast flow will provide a much drier brand of air and temperatures will also cool significantly.  Several mornings (Thursday through Sunday) will feature lows in the 50s with highs in the 70s.  Lows into the upper 30s will drive southeast into the high ground of the beautiful east TN mountains.

NEFlow

1

3Eventually, our air flow will back around to the southwest and help push Labor Day into the “hot” territory.  Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 will be common for Labor Day, itself.

The balance of the first half of September looks warm, but there are indications for changes to begin showing up towards mid to late month that would lead towards more sustained, consistent pushes of cool…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/changes-ahead/

VIDEO: Talking Storm Chances And Briefly Cooler Air…

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