A “relaxation” of the well below normal cold is on the way.
While this will support a 5-10 day period of temperatures of 5° to 10° above average (milder overnight lows, and a few days with highs at or above 50° are a good bet during the period, as well), the stage is already being set in motion for a return of colder conditions around the Christmas holiday. While admittedly, transitional periods can be “finicky,” there’s support from other pattern drivers behind a wintry return between the 12.22 and 12.24 time period. Furthermore, data suggests that there will be plenty of storminess to boot.
For those that love to review the operational model data as it rolls in (in some cases, up to 4 times per day), expect wild swings as the data begins to “hone in.” Despite some of that model fluctuation, we expect the pattern to look something like this around Christmas.
We expect the mean ridge position to set up shop over the Pacific northwest. This will result in a warmer than average regime across the west. At the same time, the trough will be pushing back into the east. As the cold air settles back in, we expect a rather active time of things during the period. This certainly doesn’t mean we’re talking snow storms, but it does appear likely that at least one or two systems of interest loom. We’ll have to deal with the challenges that will come from one or both as time draws closer.
While a “transitional” pattern appears likely around Christmas, there are growing concerns of a return of sustained cold as we get into the new year.
II. Highs today will come tonight (mid-to-upper 50s) ahead of the cold front. Once the front moves through, colder air will return for the second half of the weekend. As wrap-around moisture combines with the colder air, light snow showers will develop late Sunday night into Monday morning (shown below). This won’t be a huge deal.
III. The next item of interest will come from a clipper system Thursday. This won’t only serve up another round of light snow, but also help to reinforce the unseasonably cold air. Highs will return to around freezing to close the week with lows in the 20s.
IV. That leads us to what comes next weekend. While it’s still far too early for any sort of specifics, we’ll simply say to keep a mental note in the back of your mind for the potential of a more disruptive winter event coming out from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. We’ll certainly have to fine tune things and “hone in” as we progress through the upcoming week. From this distance, prospects range from nothing more than a light snow to a “plowable” storm. Unlike this weekend’s storm, there will be a limit to how far north next weekend’s storm will be able to track…