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Category: Forecast Models
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Dec 19
Long Range Update: Get Used To The Warmer Than Average Conditions
The short-term is as quiet as one could ever ask for this time of year. Accordingly, this is allowing us to look ahead to the potential of more active times on the horizon. Will that increasingly active regime be met with a return of the chill? Let’s dig in…
First and foremost, let’s look over the teleconnections and what light they’re shining on the pattern:
The Madden-Julian Oscillation has eyes on Phase 6 as we open January. This, too, would favor the “core” of the cold well to our northwest. We do, however, note the high latitude blocking that develops in Phase 6.
Given the above, to no surprise, the bulk of long range data paints above normal temperatures to open January. It appears as if what will be an increasingly busy pattern at that point will fall primarily in the form of rain as we ring in the new year thanks to storms cutting up west of our region.
The EPS, GEFS, and JMA Weeklies all suggest a warmer than normal pattern will be with us as we rumble through the first few days of the new year.
As we look ahead deeper into January, we do still believe the pattern will flip towards a colder than normal flavor, but we’re still a few weeks away from that change taking place. In the meantime, a quiet pattern with moderating temperatures (this week) will give way to even milder conditions the following week with a couple opportunities of rain to close the year and open January.
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Dec 19
VIDEO: Prolonged Stretch Of Mild, Quiet Weather…
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Dec 18
VIDEO: Snowstorm Review; Looking Ahead…
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Dec 17
Looking Ahead To Christmas Week: Quiet; Warmer Than Average…
It’s been a whirlwind of a few days around these parts, but, thankfully for those with Christmas travel plans, that’s all about to change- at least from a weather stand point.
A cold front will sweep through the state Wednesday morning and we’ll get a glancing blow of arctic air midweek.
This, combined with a fresh snowpack, will result in many neighborhoods waking up Thursday morning to 10s, and a few single digit reports.
With us being on the “outer fringe” of this arctic airmass, we’ll quickly moderate back to “normal” mid-December cold late week and into the weekend. This will be a harbinger of things to come as Christmas week, itself, kicks off.
Note the expanding upper ridge from the Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.
This will do a couple of things: shove the energy that could have led to a weekend East Coast storm south and result in an unusually quiet and mild time of things, locally for the Christmas holiday.
In fact, with the exception of a couple light snow showers in association with Wednesday cold frontal passage, we’re talking about a precipitation-free stretch through Christmas Day. Not only will the active pattern come to an abrupt halt, but temperatures will begin to moderate to well above average levels by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs around the 50° mark are likely.
The next chance of meaningful precipitation just come just after Christmas and likely take the form of rain.
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