Category: Forecast Models

Mar 14

Spring Like Today, But Keeping A Close Eye On Sunday…

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Forecast Update 03.14.14 @ 7:45a

Nice Close To The Work Week. . .A weak frontal system will blow through the region later this afternoon and this may spark a light shower south and east of the city.  All in all, it won’t be a big deal and won’t put a damper on an otherwise beauty of a close to the work week.  Gusty southwest winds will help temperatures zoom into the upper 50s to near 60 for afternoon highs.

Sunday Snow Storm Brewing?  That’s the big question this morning.  Model data continues to trend north and west with this storm system and we’re keeping a close eye on things.  The set up is one that features a late season arctic high over the Great Lakes region Sunday with developing low pressure moving out of Texas and into the TN Valley.  Yes, we’ll have the cold and the moisture…

We know Sunday will be a MUCH colder and windy day, but we’re trending our forecast snowier, as well.  Best chances of snow arrive Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.  While there’s still some question in regards to the northern extent of the snow shield, the northwest trend may not be done just yet.  As a result, we feel central Indiana is very much in play for accumulating snow Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.  Stay tuned.

Another Storm. . .Another storm system will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday and modeling continues to struggle on this event, as well.  We’ll leave the forecast relatively unchanged for Tuesday and Wednesday now.  After we deal with Sunday we’ll be able to get a better handle on the Tuesday/ Wednesday storm system.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2-4″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.25″

twicFor weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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John Salewicz sent in this beautiful panoramic cloud shot from Zionsville Thursday evening.  Thanks, John!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/14/spring-like-today-but-keeping-a-close-eye-on-sunday/

Mar 13

70 Degree + Type Weather Coming?

While we remain in a overall colder than normal pattern, spring, obviously, has to get here one day, right?!  The past week has seen an increase in spring at least “flirting” with the region for brief 24-36 hour time periods and this will continue over the upcoming week.

We remain concerned about a potential shot of well below normal cold to open April, but we thought it would be nice to talk about something pleasant for a change.  🙂  We’re keeping a close eye on next weekend, March 22nd and 23rd, for the potential first 70 degree + type day at IND this year.

The latest ensembles aren’t shying away from a significant, though transient, ridge building in during this time period.

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Note the GFS showing the transient, though significantly, warmer than normal air that would likely occur in this type pattern.  70 degrees + would certainly be attainable.

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See, we don’t just provide doom and gloom (though this past winter may seem that way) at IndyWx.com!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/13/70-degree-type-weather-coming/

Mar 13

A Look At Friday And A Comment On Sunday…

Good evening.  We wanted to touch base on a couple of things this evening.  Details are in the video…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/13/a-look-at-friday-and-a-comment-on-sunday/

Mar 11

Catching Up After A Day Outside Enjoying This Weather…

1.) We don’t really have any changes to the going snowfall accumulation forecast we have out concerning Wednesday.  We think Indianapolis accumulates 2″, with heavier amounts north of the city…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/11/catching-up-after-a-day-outside-enjoying-this-weather/

Mar 10

A Look At Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

The region has been under the influence of a cold eastern trough month to date with a brief relaxation taking place presently. The frigid March start and anomalously cold east…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/10/a-look-at-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/

Mar 10

Spring Tease Through Tuesday; Back To Winter Wednesday.

Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun.               34/ 60 40/ 63 18/ 40 10/ 35 27/ 53 32/ 49 28/ 40 Light –…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/10/spring-tease-through-tuesday-back-to-winter-wednesday/

Mar 09

Sunday Afternoon Update: Awesome Stretch Of Weather Before Dramatic Changes.

Good Sunday afternoon!  We’re enjoying beautiful weather and conditions will only improve Monday into Tuesday.  That said, a potential winter storm looms Wednesday.  Additionally, we’re keeping a close eye on…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/09/sunday-afternoon-update-awesome-stretch-of-weather-before-dramatic-changes/

Mar 08

Saturday Morning Thoughts…

Good morning and happy Saturday!  A weak weather system will move through the region and produce a couple of light showers this afternoon, but won’t be a big deal.  Rain will end as a couple of snow flakes.  Overall precipitation totals look less and less impressive with each model run, which wasn’t impressive to begin with.  Needless to say, don’t be concerned by any sort of significant rain or snow today.

Latest simulated radar off the NAM and HRRR shows the band of light precipitation pushing through the state this afternoon.

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While we’ll have a brief “set back” in the temperature department this weekend, early next week continues to look downright mild and very spring like.  Note our region flirting with 60s.  Impressively, a budding area of 70-degree warmth is expanding to our west.

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Details remain quite sketchy in regards to nailing down the storm the middle of next week with any sort of confidence.  While we’ll continue to sort through the data and gain a better understanding of things over the weekend, we’re confident on a colder regime returning by the middle of next week.  Note the trough per the GFS ensembles returning to the east.  Much more later!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/08/saturday-morning-thoughts/

Mar 07

Beauty Of A Close To The Work Week…

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Forecast Updated 03.07.14 @ 7:30a

Get Outside & Enjoy…We’re going to wrap up the work week with beautiful conditions.  If you can get out of work or school early today, IndyWx.com highly recommends it :-)!  High pressure will support sunny skies (after a little morning fog in spots) and milder temperatures.  Highs will zoom into the lower to middle 50s this afternoon!

Weak Weekend System…A weak cold front will slip south through the region Saturday.  Early morning sunshine will quickly give way to increasing clouds and developing light rain.  Rain will end as a period of light snow Saturday evening, but won’t accumulate.  The key word in all of this is light, with rainfall totals under a tenth of an inch.

Sunday will be a dry, chilly day with highs in the middle 40s.

True Spring Feel…The spring crave will be in full effect early next week as highs both Monday and Tuesday shoot into the lower 60s with sunshine.  We’ll notice a gusty westerly breeze Monday, assisting with the milder surge of air into the Ohio Valley.

Late Season Winter Storm Brewing?  Many questions remain around the ultimate track of the storm system by the middle of next week.  As of now, a blend of forecast model suggests a rain-to-snow scenario Wednesday, but it’s far too early to talk accumulations.  We’ll be able to fine tune some things over the weekend and have a better idea soon in regards to precipitation type and amount.  Regardless, a much colder air mass will pour into the region by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1-3″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″

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For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/07/beauty-of-a-close-to-the-work-week/

Mar 06

Thursday Evening Video Update…

Quick video update tonight to cover a couple of things: Southeast rain and western NC winter event. Beauty of a close to the work week here! More “rumblings” of a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/06/thursday-evening-video-update/

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