Category: Forecast Models

Updated 02.13.22 @ 7:42a

Only a couple weeks “officially” remain in meteorological winter. Perhaps it’s appropriate that the pattern is hinting at a vastly different look in the 10-15 day period (much warmer), and for good reason:

Perfect alignment between the MJO and teleconnections.

The MJO is forecast into Phase 4 as we put a wrap on February. Analogs show the eastern ridge that typically takes up residence in Phase 4.

All of the primary teleconnections (including the NAO- remember it’s now time to start keying in on the NAO) are in phases that also argue for above average temperatures.

To no surprise, modeling sees a warm, wet (compared to normal, of course) stretch ahead to close February and open March.

European ensemble

GFS ensemble

Given the blue print laid out above, I’d personally lean more towards the GFS solution (more widespread above normal conditions) over the Euro.