Category: Forecast Models

Apr 03

Update On The Heavy Rain And Severe Potential

It’s a wet and stormy morning across central Indiana, including heavy rain and embedded stronger storms.  The latest HRRR short-term data paints a continued stormy picture through the morning.

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That said, we’ll get into some dry time late morning into the afternoon, but the atmosphere will be priming itself for another noisy night ahead.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines the region under a slight risk of severe weather, including damaging wind, damaging hail, and a potential tornado.  The greatest risk of severe is to our south, but we must remain on our toes tonight into the wee morning hours Friday.  Please keep your weather radios on alert mode tonight.

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The simulated radar shows thunderstorms re-firing to our west late tonight, moving in during the overnight hours.

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When all is said and done (and accounting Wednesday’s rain) we still forecast widespread 2-3″ of rain across the region, with locally heavier totals.  Additionally, we bracket late tonight into the early Friday morning hours for the greatest chance of severe weather across our region.  Hail and straight line wind damage are of the greatest concerns, but a tornado can’t be ruled out.  The cold front will sweep the state clean Friday afternoon and help set up a very nice, although cooler, weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/03/update-on-the-heavy-rain-and-severe-potential/

Apr 01

Wet, Stormy Period…

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Forecast Updated 04.02.14 @ 7:30a

Heading Into A Stormy, Wet Period. . .While periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us through Friday morning, we break things down and focus in on this afternoon/ evening into Thursday morning for the potential of heaviest rainfall.  We then think we experience a bit of a “lull” in the action Thursday afternoon before we ramp things back up and introduce a severe weather component Thursday night into Friday morning.  Renewed heavy rains would also accompany these thunderstorms.  As for the severe risk, really all modes of severe weather are in play, including damaging hail, straight line winds, and even the possibility of a tornado or two.  We’ll continue to closely monitor the ongoing weather situation and suggest you plan to keep abreast of the latest developments in the days ahead in terms of potentially flooding and severe weather.  Severe weather outbreaks are always dangerous, but particularly so at night.

The cold front will sweep the state clean of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms Friday morning and this will set things up for a much quieter, calmer (although windy) close to the week.

When all is said and done, we forecast widespread 2-3″ rainfall through the heart of the state, including central Indiana, along with localized amounts between 3″ and 4″.

Much Needed, Calmer, Weekend. . .High pressure will build over head as we go through the weekend and this will supply a drier, calmer period Saturday and Sunday.  We’ll note a cooler air mass in place, along with a gusty northwest wind Saturday, but winds will calm Sunday, ensuring a pleasant close to the weekend.

Eyeing Our Next Storm. . .Things are still much in the air in regards to the precise details with a new storm system early next week, but we’re confident something’s brewing.  The European data suggests this is another heavy rain event for our neck of the woods Monday, while the GFS is further east, and takes the majority of the moisture up the eastern seaboard.  We’ll continue to monitor things.

One more item of note, mid to long range guidance is in agreement on the return of a below normal temperature pattern here later next week…  In fact, a few wet snow flurries may fly next Tuesday as the cold air pushes back in.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 3″ – 4″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/01/wet-stormy-period/

Apr 01

Enjoy Today; Heavy Rain And Storms In Our Future…

Today will be another beauty! Enjoy!  We think conditions go down hill rather rapidly later tonight through Friday morning with periods of heavy rain and the threat of severe weather…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/01/enjoy-today-heavy-rain-and-storms-in-our-future/

Mar 28

Heavy Snow For A While Saturday Morning…

We continue to closely monitor the goings on around a late March storm system that promises to provide quite the snow show for some tomorrow morning!  Details can be found…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/28/heavy-snow-for-a-while-saturday-morning/

Mar 27

Covering Gusty Storms Tonight And Saturday Snow…

Busy times in the forecast office continues.  We are eyeing potentially noisy thunderstorms later tonight and the threat of wet accumulating snow for portions of the area Saturday.  Details can…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/27/covering-gusty-storms-tonight-and-saturday-snow/

Mar 27

Busy Pattern…

A busy weather pattern will keep us on our toes with two storm systems of note between now and Saturday.

Periods of showers will keep most of today wet.  While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of moderate to heavy showers are possible today.  A quick punch of milder air will arrive this afternoon after a chilly start to the day, combined with a strengthening south wind.  Total rainfall today and tonight should average half an inch, or less.

Highs today will reach the lower 50s, despite the showers.

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Latest simulated radar data shows the potential of a line of thunderstorms moving through here late tonight, directly associated with the cold front.  A strong storm is possible along with gusty winds as the front slides through early Friday morning.

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As if all of this wasn’t enough, another storm system will arrive Saturday.  This system will have a wintry component to it, with the chance of a stripe of wet snow along the northern shield of precipitation.  It’ll require our attention as we move forward.  March storms have been known to have a surprise or two and it’s our job to try and help eliminate any of these surprises.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/27/busy-pattern/

Mar 22

Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

It was a cold winter across the Lower 48, including Indiana:

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March has followed suite, month-to-date:  Cold continues for the majority of the upcoming week, but we note moderating late week temperatures.

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It’s been dry as of late, but after a snowy winter, the region is doing just fine from a drought perspective.  We note abnormally dry conditions west:

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Latest CFSv2 data points to a wet spring ahead.  We also note the latest European weeklies suggesting a potentially “busy” 1st half of April, including a couple of “bowling ball” systems of note.  With the changing seasons, it’s not unusual to see big spring cut off lows slowly moving through portions of the country.

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Note the GFS (7-day) and Canadian (10-day) precipitation forecast:

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We also are still forecasting light snow Tuesday.  Most of this won’t accumulate with the high sun angle and low snowfall rates, but a brief coating to less than an inch is possible in spots:

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/22/where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/

Mar 19

Video Update On The Next Couple Weeks!

Here’s a rather lengthy video taking a look at the weather here across central Indiana the next couple weeks. Oh yeah, we’re also a little excited about Coach Pearl coming…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/19/video-update-on-the-next-couple-weeks/

Mar 16

Changeable Weather This Week…

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Forecast Updated 03.17.14 @ 12:00p

Quiet, Brighter Start To The Work Week. . .After a “ridiculously” cold, windy, and gloomy Sunday, it’ll be nice to see the sunshine return as we kick off another work week.  Temperatures will remain much colder than average, but with that late March sun working through later this afternoon (once these pesky clouds move east), it’ll feel somewhat better.

Fast Moving Storm System. . .Most of Tuesday will be sunny and dry, but a frontal boundary will race towards central Indiana Tuesday evening and we note some of our high resolution model data trying to bring a thin line of showers and thunderstorms through in association with this frontal passage.  After a mainly dry day, clouds will increase and we’ll forecast quick-moving showers and embedded thunder Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Rainfall amounts will remain light.

Dry, blustery weather will return Wednesday afternoon with temperatures just a few degrees below normal.

Late Week Storm. . .After a dry and pleasant Thursday, southwest breezes will kick into high gear and allow temperatures to jump into the middle to perhaps upper 60s Friday (dependent upon how much sunshine we see).  That said, another cold front will have it’s eyes set on our area and clouds will increase during the afternoon and evening hours with showers and thunderstorms developing Friday night as the front pushes southeast.

This will then set the stage for another cold weekend ahead.  While we’re trending next weekend (especially Sunday) MUCH colder, it’s possible we’ll have to lower temperatures even further in the days ahead.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.25″

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For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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After a long winter, sunshine and pleasant temperatures provided a great day to get outside and enjoy the conditions last Saturday in Zionsville!  Thanks to John Salewicz for this shot!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/16/changeable-weather-this-week/

Mar 15

Dry Today; Windy And MUCH Colder Sunday…

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Forecast Updated: 03.15.14 @ 8:53a

Nice Today; MUCH Colder Sunday. . .Today will easily be the pick of the weekend as mostly sunny skies dominate along with seasonable temperatures.  Get outside and enjoy!

We continue to watch a southern storm system for the second half of the weekend and while model data trended north Thursday, the common theme most of Friday into this morning has been back south.  As such, we’ll lean towards a less snowy forecast Sunday for central Indiana, but note if you have travel plans to the southern third of the state that accumulating snow and ice will greet you Sunday.  Here across central Indiana look for a rather cloudy and MUCH colder day.  In fact, temperatures won’t even make it to the freezing mark with a very strong east to northeast wind in play.  Winds may gust as high as 35 MPH Sunday afternoon, making it feel like the single digits and teens.

Relatively Quiet Week. . .Modeling continues to struggle with the timing and strength of storm systems in the week ahead, but current thinking takes the storm track primarily north of our area next week, meaning less impact (from rain or snow chances) here.  We caution that this can change and we’ll keep a close eye on things, but we’re trending our forecast towards a quieter one for now.  The next system of note will be a fast moving low pressure area and associated cold front that will pass here Tuesday into Wednesday.  A scattered shower and wind shift will occur with this system, but, as stated above, the majority of the more significant “weather” will lie to our north.

A brief warming trend to well above normal temperatures may carry us to close out the work week before the next systems eyes our area later next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″

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For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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I know many are saying thankfully we aren’t dealing with this kind of weather today.  After a harsh winter, it’s always nice to see the sunshine and milder temperatures return.  Today we take you back to a snowy Zionsville from February 17th.  This shot was taken by Janet Baker.  Thanks, Janet!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/15/dry-today-windy-and-much-colder-sunday/

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