Category: Forecast Models

May 06

Catching Up On A Tuesday Morning!

Good morning and happy Tuesday!  We’re looking forward to a beautiful, and warm, few days ahead before unsettled conditions return by late week.  The video covers those details below.

Monday’s highs displayed quite the spread across the state- ranging from near 90 down state to the upper 50s across far northeastern Indiana.  Here across central Indiana, many enjoyed upper 60s to near 70 on Monday.  (Click on the image to enlarge).

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Despite the surge of warmth coming mid week, and likely again early next week, the overall theme is one that’s cooler than normal for mid May.  Note the strong trough developing over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

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Video discussing today’s forecast and looking ahead to the weekend and beyond:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/06/catching-up-on-a-tuesday-morning/

Apr 30

Cool Late Week Stretch…

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The region will remain under the influence of a chilly and, at times, damp upper low as we wrap up the work week.  While we’ll keep mention of an isolated to scattered shower into the weekend, most of the weekend will remain rain-free. A warm front will lift north through the region early next week, helping temperatures reach the warmest of the season so far.  We think the years first 80 degree reading will be registered by the middle part of the week.  A new storm system promises another round of active weather beyond the forecast period.

– We’re experiencing technical issues with our video recorder software.  We’ve cut two videos for today’s forecast, but neither will publish correctly.  We’ll continue to work on this and try to post a video briefing later this evening.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/30/cool-late-week-stretch-more-on-the-longer-term/

Apr 29

Tuesday Evening Update!

Quick evening update to discuss the overnight period and look at the cooler pattern moving in for late week.

Showers will diminish during the overnight and gusty northwest winds will deliver a cooler air mass that will hang on as we put a wrap on the work week:

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The video below has more details!  Have a great evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/29/tuesday-evening-update/

Apr 28

Keeping A Close Eye On Severe Potential This Evening…

The region is still very much under the gun for potential severe weather this afternoon and tonight.  That said, the severe threat across central Indiana is highly dependable on just how easy we’re able to shake the clouds and rain this morning.  Sometimes modeling (even high resolution data) struggles with this.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines the region for a Slight Risk of severe weather- again the primary threat time lies this afternoon into tonight.

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Latest high resolution data suggests we’re able to clear things out this afternoon and introduce sunshine to help add heat and further destabilize our local atmosphere (not a good thing), which would help lead to rather robust thunderstorm development.

Note the simulated satellite data showing the dreaded clearing from now through the afternoon:

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Latest high resolution data suggests potential super cell thunderstorms begin to fire to our west as early as 4-6pm.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

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Bottom line, a significant severe weather threat is present this evening into tonight.  We’ll hope the clouds and rain linger longer than modeling currently projects as this would greatly limit the potential heating and destabilization and subsequent severe risk.  That said, it’s important to note current data does suggest we break into afternoon sunshine.

Greatest severe risks here appear to be large hail, damaging straight line winds, and a possible tornado.  Be sure to have a way to get the latest weather information this afternoon and tonight.  Stay safe out there!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/28/keeping-a-close-eye-on-severe-potential-this-evening/

Apr 25

Clearing And Windy After Morning Rain…

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Video discussing today’s custom built IndyWx.com Forecast issued at 7:44am:

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/25/clearing-and-windy-after-morning-rain/

Apr 23

Wednesday Video Update

This morning’s video discusses rain and storm chances late tonight and again late Thursday night.  We also talk about a big storm brewing for later this weekend into next week.…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/23/wednesday-video-update/

Apr 17

Thursday Evening Update…

Rain chances continue to look less and less impressive tomorrow morning.  All-in-all, similar to last weekend, we’re expecting a beautiful time of things across the region going into the Easter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/17/thursday-evening-update/

Apr 14

Old Man Winter Isn’t Finished

Come this afternoon it’ll be tough to believe we were in the 70s over the weekend!  A cold front is moving through central Indiana this morning and resulting in showers.  Rain will continue in an off-and-on fashion today, becoming a bit more organized yet again later this afternoon and evening.  This will be in response to a wave of low pressure developing to our east, along the pressing strong cold front.

A look at the forecast simulated radar at 7pm this evening:

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MUCH colder air will pour into the region today, complete with gusty northwest winds.  In fact, we’ll be in the 40s just after the lunchtime hour and the free-fall will continue.  30s arrive this evening and rain will begin to transition to wet snow.  Not all will see accumulation tonight, but a slushy accumulation of around half an inch will be possible where heavier snow persists.

A look at the forecast simulated radar towards 11pm-12am:

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Temperatures will crash into the 20s by Tuesday morning.  I saw many folks at Lowes buying flowers yesterday…hopefully those folks aren’t planning on planting until later…

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Tuesday will feature clearing skies, albeit unseasonably cold conditions.  We’ll remain in the 30s most of Tuesday, struggling to make it much above 40 by afternoon, along with a chilly northwest wind in place.  Lows Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning will drop into the lower to middle 20s.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/14/old-man-winter-isnt-finished/

Apr 08

Taste Of True Spring Coming, But Another Shot Of Winter On Deck…

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Custom IndyWx.com Forecast Updated 04.09.14 @ 8:31a

Sunshine Returns; Warming Up. . .Instability-driven thundershowers developed Tuesday afternoon across central Indiana and even produced small hail in a few locations, especially east of the city.  Thankfully though the sunshine we experienced Tuesday evening is a sign of things to come for the mid week stretch.  We forecast a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky both today and Thursday, along with moderating temperatures.

A strong southwest breeze will help usher in potentially the first 70 degree day of the year Thursday.  We also note winds may gust upwards of 30 MPH (especially in the open country) Thursday afternoon.

Late Week Front. . .A cold front will move through the region during the day Friday.  Latest model data suggests a little more moisture will be available than we thought earlier this week and as a result we’ll hit the shower and potential thundershower chance a little harder Friday.  Anywhere from 0.25-0.50 of rain will be possible with this system as it moves through the area.

Watching The Weekend. . .While Friday’s front will only make it so far south, we’re still thinking Saturday will be rain-free for the majority of central Indiana.  We’ll note the threat of a shower down state and keep a close eye on things, but for now we’ll keep Saturday’s forecast dry and warm.  Get out there and enjoy a beautiful day!

Our next storm system will take aim on the region Sunday.  As such, clouds will increase and shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the rise as we go through the day.  We do note a rather large range in model forecast temperatures Sunday between the middle 70s per the European data to the lower 60s per the GFS.  For now, we’ll split the difference and forecast upper 60s Sunday with increasing rain chances as we progress through the day.  Stay tuned.

Brief, But Potent Blast Of Winter Chill. . .Another significant rain maker will blow through the region Sunday night into Monday.  At this early stage in the game, there’s a rather high probability of moderate to heavy rainfall (greater than 1″), but the bigger story will likely be the blast of winter-like chill that will invade next Monday night into Tuesday.  In fact, there may be just enough moisture lingering to result in some light snow or flurries Tuesday as the cold air pours in.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/08/taste-of-true-spring-coming-but-another-shot-of-winter-on-deck/

Apr 03

Looking At Tonight’s Weather And Another Storm Monday…

Good evening.  It’s been a busy day across central Indiana and we’re not finished just yet.  While the heaviest rains and strong to severe thunderstorms targets southern parts of the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/04/03/looking-at-tonights-weather-and-another-storm-monday/

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