Category: Forecast Models
The morning is dawning pleasant and quiet, but things appear to get quite noisy and active around these parts later this afternoon. A cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass in place across the region and thunderstorms will erupt in rather explosive fashion as early as the early to mid afternoon hours. Damaging straight line winds and large hail are of greatest concern.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights the region for an enhanced risk of large and destructive hail this afternoon.
Here’s a look at what the simulated forecast radar may resemble this afternoon, as always, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics:
Forecast Radar 1pm
Forecast Radar 4pm
Forecast radar 5pm
Forecast radar 7pm
Now it’s important to note not everyone will see destructive severe weather (as is usually the case with any severe weather outbreak), but signals point towards the possibility of a rather significant and large scale severe hail event across central and southern portions of the state this afternoon and evening. It’ll be very important to stay tuned to your favorite media and certainly heed all warnings that come out this afternoon.
We’ll clear things out nicely later tonight and Thursday and set the stage for an absolute beauty of a holiday and race weekend. We forecast bright, sunny skies each day along with cool temperatures that slowly warm to the upper 70s for race day, itself. We’ll introduce the next threat of storms for Memorial Day amidst bubbling true summer heat and humidity for next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/21/damaging-hail-threat-looms-for-central-southern-indiana-this-afternoon/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, NAM Model, Race Weekend, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos, Windy
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May 20, 2014
The region remains under fire for severe weather potential, primarily for damaging straight line wind and hail per latest thinking. The video uncovers when you can expect this and looks ahead to the all-important Memorial Day and Indianapolis 500 weekend!
The region is under fire for severe potential Wednesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/20/severe-weather-video-brief-tonight-wednesday/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Windy
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May 20, 2014
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57/ 80
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64/ 80
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Light
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The daytime hours into the evening will be very pleasant today- mostly sunny to partly cloudy, warm, and breezy! A windy warm-up is underway as temperatures are running 17 degrees warmer than 8 o’clock Monday morning. Highs both today and Wednesday will approach 80. We’re eyeing a couple rounds of thunderstorms in our future- late tonight/ early Wednesday and then again Wednesday afternoon. That said, we caution bust potential is high and while a slight risk of severe weather is up for the region for both potential thunderstorm complexes, conditions are far from a “lock.” We’re confident portions of the Ohio Valley will deal with a couple rounds of severe thunderstorms, but there’s the chance the first wave of severe weather is across far eastern portions of the state and targeting more of Ohio and there’s also the chance that round two Wednesday is mostly across downstate Indiana. We’ll keep an eye on things and update later this evening. Regardless, large hail and damaging winds will be of greatest concern. Stay tuned for further updates this evening. Rainfall potential is around half an inch tonight through Wednesday, with locally heavier downpours. As we move forward, we’re very confident on a glorious late week stretch and Memorial Day weekend- lots of sunshine and very pleasant temperatures! A warm front will introduce a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm Monday afternoon, along with a much hotter, more humid feel.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/20/eyeing-storms-wednesday-beauty-of-a-weekend-on-deck/
Happy Monday! Here’s hoping everyone had a great weekend! The week ahead will feature a much warmer, muggier regime as early as Tuesday. Rain chances will increase Wednesday night into Thursday (early indications are for around half an inch of rain). We’ll then (thankfully) dry things out and introduce a very pleasant air mass heading into the all-important Memorial Day and Race weekend. We’ll have a full 7-day forecast posted here later this evening. Make it a great Monday!
Southerly winds will transport 80 degree type air and a more humid feel by Tuesday and Wednesday.
A cold front will deliver best rain chances of the week Wednesday night into Thursday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/19/catching-up-on-a-monday-morning/
Many central Indiana neighborhoods are still in the 40s as of this update. Officially, the high so far today at IND has reached 50 and is more than 20 degrees below where we should be for this date.
The upper low continues to swirl over Iowa this afternoon and will help push a band of showers into central Indiana during the wee morning hours Friday. Additionally, the threat is there that a couple of the stronger showers Friday afternoon include some small hail with added instability and the very cold air aloft.
As we look ahead to the second half of May, don’t be surprised by a repeat performance in this weather pattern. We think brief ridging will be responsible for highs above the 80 degree mark the middle of next week, but the stage may be set for another stretch of unseasonably cool air to wrap up the month…. Additional details can be found in the video!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/15/thursday-evening-update-repeat-in-the-pattern-coming-to-end-may/
The remainder of the work week will feature plenty of rain and well below normal temperatures.
A surface wave will move up along a cold front today into Thursday and be responsible for widespread rain, some of which will be heavy, across central Indiana. Additionally, severe thunderstorms, including possible quick spin-up tornadoes, will be possible across far eastern Indiana and Ohio this afternoon and evening.
Note the forecast radar stays rather busy in the hours ahead!
Area additional rainfall total will reach between 1-2″ between this morning and Friday afternoon.
The other big story is the chill. Temperatures are drastically cooler this morning than what we’ve gotten used to the past several days, and the step down process will continue. We still think most of Thursday is spent in the 40s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/14/promised-wet-chilly-pattern-here/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, NAM Model, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos
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May 13, 2014
Note how dramatic of a temperature shift is occurring to our west- temperatures are down more than 30 degrees from this same time last night.
That cool air will filter into our region tonight and Wednesday. As a matter of fact, we still think Thursday has the potential to remain in the 40s for the better part of the day. The video below has more details on this and a look ahead to continued rainy times.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/13/tuesday-evening-video-brief-the-cool-down-is-on/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, NAM Model, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
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May 13, 2014
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Stepping outside this morning you would think it was July or August. Unseasonably warm conditions are coupling with dew points in the middle to upper 60s to help create quite the muggy feel to the central Indiana air mass once again. This will help fuel showers and heavy rain producing thunderstorms today, especially during the PM. Perhaps the most widespread rain and thunderstorms will arrive Wednesday into early Thursday as a wave of low pressure moves up along a cold front that will be just east of our region by that time frame. We still forecast locally heavy rainfall amounts during the course of the next 48 hours, including widespread additional 1.25″-1.50″ totals. The other big story will be the dramatically cooler temperatures that filter in tomorrow. We’ve called Wednesday our transition day and that remains our idea now, as well. Temperatures will likely fall through the afternoon and evening hours. Speaking of cool, temperatures will remain in the 40s for the better part of your Thursday (hope you haven’t put those jackets and sweaters away just yet)! We’ll slowly begin to shake the showers and clouds over the weekend and have trended more optimistic for Sunday’s forecast into early next week.
Most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will likely occur Wednesday into early Thursday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/13/showers-and-storms-then-much-cooler/
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The new work week will feature a very stormy and unsettled weather pattern. While everyone won’t get wet today, we do note the likely chance of afternoon thunderstorms bubbling up during the heating of the day. Like Sunday, any of these storms could feature torrential rain and could quickly pulse to severe levels. More widespread rain chances will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday in direct association with a cold front. The long advertised cooler pattern will arrive behind this front and set up an unseasonably cool time of things to close out the second half of the week and head on into the weekend. Rainfall totals this week will average an additional 1.25″ to 1.50″ with locally higher totals. As for temperatures, we’ll go from well above seasonal levels today (8-10 deg. above normal) to well below seasonal levels by mid week (20 deg. below normal).
Forecast radar at 2:00p today, via the short-term high resolution HRRR forecast model.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/12/unsettled-and-stormy-turning-much-cooler/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos
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May 8, 2014
Posts this weekend will be a bit “off schedule” as I celebrate my brother’s graduation. That said, posts will hit the site over the weekend and we’ll also keep you updated on our Twitter feed- @indywx. A busy time of things lies ahead and a very active weather pattern will carry us into this time next week. Let’s get into some of the details!
1.) (2) rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely Friday. Weakening showers and embedded thunder will dissipate moving into central Indiana Friday morning. That said, depending on the amount of clearing that takes place behind the first wave of showers and storms will go a long way into determining the severity of round two Friday evening. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) continues to highlight our area for a Slight Risk of severe weather (primary threats are large hail and damaging straight line winds) Friday evening. We also note the latest high resolution NAM simulated radar shows potential strong to severe thunderstorms moving in tomorrow evening.
2.) A second heavy rain and storm maker will arrive early next week. The Gulf of Mexico is open for business and suggests some locally heavy downpours are a good bet with both storms. This isn’t bad news as it’s been dry as of late. We’re now on day 9 without measurable precipitation and that will be changing in a big way over the upcoming 7 day period. Widespread 2″-2.5″ rains are a good bet over the upcoming week, including some locally heavier totals.
The detailed video discussion below covers more on the severe chances, heavy rain threat, and a much cooler pattern ahead!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/08/smorgasbord-of-weather/
