Jul 13
Rain is once again falling apart moving into central Indiana this morning. Short term model data is a bit aggressive on rain and storms. The visible satellite image shows plenty…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/13/sunday-morning-rambles-2/
Jul 08
The search for that first 90 degree day will have to go on (and on and on and on…) as the pattern remains one that will continue to make it very difficult for any sort of long-lasting, sustained, heat. In fact, we’re actually going to trend temperatures even cooler as we move into Week 2- the exact opposite of what you’d come to expect as we rumble into mid to late July.
Before we get into next week, let’s focus on the shorter term. Drier air is on our doorstep as a cold front sweeps central Indiana this evening. This will set the stage for a very pleasant mid week stretch, including temperatures that remain below average and dew points that fall into the 50s. Note the latest dew point plot below, indicating dew points falling into the 50s, and remaining there for the better part of the next (3) days:
We will turn much more humid (oppressively so) over the weekend and this will help aid in thunderstorm development over the weekend. Most of the region can expect around an inch of rain, on average, between Friday night and Tuesday, mostly thanks to complexes of thunderstorms. However, there will be locally heavier totals exceeding 2″ in spots.
A MUCH stronger front will sweep the state Tuesday and result in temperatures and weather conditions that are much more fall-like than summer. A couple days next week have the potential to remain in the 60s for highs (centering on Tuesday-Wednesday for that as of now) and overnight lows could dip into the middle 40s to near 50. Breezy north and northwest winds can also be anticipated. – Certainly far from what you’d expect for this time of year!
Here’s what the upper air pattern will look like next week:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/08/not-much-hot-air-in-sight/
Jul 06
What a weather year this has been for central Indiana. Snow and cold translated to wet and stormy as winter turned to spring. Now as summer rumbles into the supposed “dog days” we’re really left with the exact opposite. Our weather pattern will be dominated by a fast moving northwest flow over the upcoming (7) days and this spells an active and stormy open to the work week and next weekend, with an “island” of cool, pleasant weather thrown in the mix Wednesday through Friday.
The GFS operational run shows that we’ll remain locked into the rather active northwest flow pattern through the upcoming week. Note that while the trough axis moves east with time, the northwest flow remains intact.
There’s excellent ensemble support from the GEFS and EC, as well.
The end result is a (7) day stretch that remains cooler than normal when all added up, highlighted by the cooler punch of air (worthy of open windows yet again) Wed-Fri.
This also remains quite the active pattern in regards to thunderstorm complexes and rounds of locally heavy rainfall. We bracket late tonight into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday, followed by next weekend for possible storm complexes that will make for a rather noisy time of things here. As for the severe threat, we’ll have to keep a close eye on each complex. It’s possible one or two of these could pose a damaging wind threat as they race southeast and that’s our biggest concern as of now.
When you total it all up, the upcoming (7) day period, July 7th-14th, is likely to lead to more significant rainfall over the region. The Canadian isn’t holding back, suggesting widespread 2-3″ totals. That may be a bit “bullish,” but we’ll forecast 1.5″-2″ with ease during the upcoming week, including locally heavier totals.
Quick summary:
Monday through Tuesday will be highlighted by rainy and stormy periods before we introduce a much cooler and drier regime Wednesday through Friday. Humidity builds over the upcoming weekend with additional rain and thunderstorm chances returning.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/06/here-we-go-again-2/
Jul 01
It’s hard to believe we’re approaching the July 4th holiday already. Where is the summer going?! I remember back in my football days, once past the 4th, summer was over for me as two-a-days began the following week. Come late July, we would beg for the fall semester of school to begin! 🙂
If you’re like me, the upcoming weather pattern in the days ahead will certainly have you craving fall! Lows in outlying areas will dip into the upper 40s come Friday morning (not bad for the 4th of July, huh)? Anyway, here are some things that have the attention of IndyWx.com in the days (and weeks) ahead…
1.) Trending Cooler…Note the cooler air in the upper Mid West this evening, including many already in the 50s and 60s. That cooler air will head south with time Wednesday into Thursday. We’ll note the cooler temperatures tomorrow as highs only reach the middle to upper 70s. The cooler than normal temperatures will really settle into the region tomorrow night and Thursday, continuing for the big 4th of July holiday. Some outlying communities may fall into the upper 40s Friday morning!
2.) Arthur…What’s now Tropical Storm Arthur will likely continue to strengthen in the days ahead and potentially come too close for comfort to the NC Outer Banks around the upcoming holiday. By the time Arthur is along (or just offshore) the NC coastline, he may be packing hurricane force winds. Certainly, plenty of rough seas are to be had up and down the mid Atlantic coast into the Northeast coastal waters for the upcoming long holiday weekend.
3.) Continued Active Pattern…Though we’ll enjoy some much needed dry weather as we cool things down, an active time of things will return early next week, including multiple storm chances.
Additionally, we don’t forecast any sort of significant heat for the foreseeable future. In fact, we may “enjoy” another round of unseasonably cool air by the middle to latter parts of next week, as projected by the ESRL/PSD upper air pattern above.
4.) Thoughts Turning To Fall & Winter…Part of what we provide here are thoughts on the seasonal and long range, including a variety of model data that may argue for, and against, our seasonal ideas (have to keep an open mind and be sure not to “model hug” any sort of data set). The latest JAMSTEC ideas have to make those eastern winter lovers smile…
As we transition from fall to winter, the model suggests a weak, to borderline moderate, El Nino progresses into a Modoki ENSO event (read more HERE about the differences between an El Nino event and an El Nino Modoki event). Combine this with the warmer than normal north-central and northeastern PAC waters and the players are, at least, on the field for a colder than average east- particularly southeast.
Pure speculation at this point, and it should be pointed out that this model struggled on the cold winter last year at this time. Instead of the cold winter we experienced, it’s 2013 June forecast for December-February 2013-2014 was a warm one. We’ll keep a close eye on the trends through late summer into fall.
An important note- as opposed to looking into the flip-flopping forecast temperature regime at this juncture, focus more on the projected oceanic patterns. Time will tell, but even though we’re only into early July, know that we continue to formulate some early thoughts and ideas on the upcoming fall and winter…
Have a relaxing night and God Bless!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/01/tuesday-night-weather-rambles/
Jun 30
We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today. The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex. Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.
The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL. All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.
The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.
This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.
Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana. Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.
Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region. In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region. Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.
Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.
Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening. The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.
Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state. While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region. More later this afternoon!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/30/severe-threat-tonight-for-portions-of-the-region/
Jun 27
Seems like a broken record, but more showers and thunderstorms dot the central Indiana landscape this evening and will continue over the weekend, though no all day rains are anticipated. Additionally, we’re still tracking well below normal air for the all-important holiday weekend next week. Details in a quick Friday evening video update below!
A cooler than average pattern continues to look likely for the all-important July 4th weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/27/quick-friday-evening-video-update/
Jun 26
1.) After a relatively dry day (though don’t tell Indy’s northwest communities that) Thursday, rain chances will begin to creep back into our forecast over the weekend as humidity levels…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/26/thursday-evening-weather-rambles/
Jun 24
The pattern continues to look as if it’ll evolve in a way that will assist in delivering the hottest air so far this year during the course of the upcoming weekend into early next week. That said, the seeds are once again being planted that should promote a trough and associated cooler than normal pattern returning as we head closer to the Independence Day holiday.
In short, an active and progressive pattern is set to continue across our immediate neck of the woods. This promises a continuation of above average precipitation and while shots of hot air will invade from time to time, it’s going to be mighty tough to get any sort of hot pattern to stick around for any sort of staying power over the course of the upcoming couple weeks.
In the short-term, we’ll enjoy a couple of cooler, drier days for the mid week stretch, but ridging will build this weekend into the middle part of next week and we should have no problem reaching the hottest levels of the year so far. Note, however, how the upper pattern reverses and allows a trough to develop over the Lakes and Ohio Valley by Day 10, or the Independence Day holiday.
There’s relatively good agreement between the GFS and European during the 8-10 day period with the trough and associated cooler pattern returning.
The NAEFS and CFSv2 highlight the warmer than normal pattern giving way to cooling week 2.
The GFS ensembles show the transient regime ahead. Note the warming giving way to cooling and then warming again towards week 3. Again, this is a good indication of wetter than normal conditions as well across a good portion of the Mid West and Ohio Valley.
To sum things up, the hottest air so far this year will likely move into the Hoosier state early next week and feature a day or two of 90 degrees +. The heat won’t have staying power as a trough and associated cooler air mass will return heading into the Independence Day holiday, and could potentially be highlighted by a round of gusty storms as the heat gives way to cooling. We’ll have to keep an eye on this as we draw closer.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/24/hot-weekend-coming-but-were-set-to-cool-going-into-the-holiday/
Jun 24
We’re eyeing a rather unsettled day across central Indiana, including numerous showers and thunderstorms that will likely develop across the region, especially from late morning into the evening hours. So far, the majority of heavy rain and thunderstorms has remained off to our northwest, but that will likely change within the next few hours.
We’re tracking upper level energy off to our southwest this morning and this piece of energy will track northeast as we move through the second half of the day.
The latest visible satellite image also shows the spin associated with the upper level energy over southern Illinois this morning.
Note the heavy rain and embedded thunder currently to our southwest associated with this disturbance this morning.
As this energy moves northeast there’s no reason to think widespread showers and thunderstorms won’t be around the region this afternoon and evening. We note a very humid air mass in place with dew points around 70. Furthermore, precipitable water (PWAT) will approach 2″ this afternoon across the area. The upper energy will provide the needed lift. Needless to say, the ingredients are in place for another round of heavy rain.
The HRRR simulated radar product has a pretty good handle on what the radar may look like this afternoon, valid at 3p.
Widespread rainfall totals should fall within the 0.50″-1.00″ range on average today, but locally heavier totals closer to 2″ will certainly be possible under the heavier storms.
Interested in personal weather forecasts or consulting for yourself or place of business? Email us at bill@indywx.com.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/24/showers-thunderstorms-expand-in-coverage-later-today/
Jun 19
A rather rare flood event took place across localized areas of central Indiana between Wednesday, June 18th, 2014 and Thursday, June 19th, 2014. (27) hour rainfall totals 4pm Wednesday, June 18th through 7pm Thursday, June 19th reached 5.5″ (5) miles northwest of Zionsville, IN in southeastern Boone County, IN. 2.9″ of that rain fell in less than a (3) hour period between 4pm and 7pm Thursday, June 19th.
Local Agriculture impact:
Numerous central and southern Boone County crops experienced some sort of damage from rapid run off of the torrential rainfall. Communities and farmland impacted included Lebanon, Whitestown, and Zionsville.
Ground-truth reports taken at our IndyWx.com headquarters (5 miles northwest of Zionsville, just outside Whitestown, IN) recorded 5.5″ of rain within the (27) hour period mentioned above.
Radar estimated data also shows the widespread 4-5″+ rainfall totals across Boone County over the past 24 hours- Wednesday, June 18th through Thursday, June 19th.
Forecast model data from as early as Thursday morning suggested that particular afternoon and evening could feature training of heavy rain producing thunderstorms through central Indiana, including some embedded strong to severe thunderstorms, despite the Storm Prediction Center including central Indiana in any sort of severe weather categorical outlook (Slight Risk, or above). That said, it should also be noted that this wasn’t a major severe weather outbreak across central Indiana, though isolated severe weather reports did come in, including a brief tornado touchdown near Anderson Thursday afternoon, along with a couple of additional severe thunderstorm warnings. That said, the purpose of this post will focus on the set-up for heavy, and in some cases excessive, rainfall “training” (moving repeatedly over the same locale) over central Indiana communities Thursday afternoon/ evening.
First, let’s take a look at the broad scale pattern set-up. Needless to say, it’s certainly easy to see why localized flash flooding developed.
Thursday morning’s 06z model runs suggested CAPE values, or Convective Available Potential Energy, would reach 4800-5000 across central Indiana. You can look at CAPE as the “umph,” or fuel, that basically will feed a thunderstorms it’s energy. Anything over 2000 is considered plenty enough for strong thunderstorm potential.
The overall upper air pattern and steering currents suggested portions of the Ohio Valley would be under the gun, so to speak, for potential training of heavy rain and associated thunderstorms.
Rich tropical moisture was readily available across the area, indicative of 06z forecast dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the Ohio Valley region.
Perhaps the more telling story had to do with the forecast PWAT, or Precipitable Water, values that exceeded 2″ to 2.4″ across portions of central Indiana from the 06z model run Thursday morning. PWAT values are a good indication of heavy rainfall potential should there be something to trigger (lifting mechanism) showers and storms. PWAT values of 2″ and above are considered extreme and rather rare, even for this time of year.
We tip our hat to the 06z 4km NAM picking up on this early Thursday morning as it very closely matched where training thunderstorms and heavy rain initiated Thursday afternoon. Take a look at the forecast PWAT levels and the afternoon radar on Thursday, June 19th, as storms began to develop: Note rainfall rates exceeded 2″/ hr. across portions of central Indiana, including Boone County on the afternoon of June 19th.
Compare that to the forecast radar from another one of our short-term, high resolution, forecast models, the HRRR, valid 6pm:
(We want to thank the fine folks at Weatherbell Analytics for some of the forecast model images. Additionally, thanks to Radarscope for the radar storm rainfall totals).
In closing, a combination of ingredients came together to present a localized, yet very significant flood event, for central Indiana. The upper air pattern promoted movement of abnormally moist air to stream north into the Ohio Valley region. At the same time, the same pattern resulted in a steering current that was relatively weak across our immediate region- adding to the potential of training. The storms actually initiated (formed) along an old outflow boundary from the previous night, Wednesday, June 18th/ early morning Thursday, June 19th.
The days ahead will continue the unsettled theme across the region and we’ll have to remain on our toes for potential additional significant weather impacts as we move forward Friday, and even into the weekend. Much more later.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/19/boone-county-central-indiana-flooding-61914/