Category: Forecast Models

Updated 03.16.22 @ 6:42a

While relative warmth will dominate headlines in the short-term, there’s plenty of reason not to buy into the idea that we’re finished with the chilly late winter temperatures just yet.

First, let’s start with the MJO. We’re in Phase 2 now, but what is most intriguing is the duration spent in Phase 3 (favors a pressing trough east and south similar to what image 2 shows below).

Should the MJO continue to move forward with similar amplitude then milder conditions would prevail as we get set to wrap up the month.

By that point, however, we’ll have to pay particularly close attention to the EPO and NAO phases. There are growing signals that both teleconnections will favor a return of colder than normal conditions prior to closing out the month. Couple that with the MJO movement and confidence continues to increase that we aren’t quite finished with the chill just yet. The question then becomes what takes place in April? We’ll lean into that with more detail during tomorrow’s update.