Category: Forecast Models

Cool Close To The Work Week; Longer Range Talk…

Clouds will increase this evening and an isolated shower is possible though most will remain dry.  More on this and a look ahead to the weekend and beyond in the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/13/cool-close-to-the-work-week-longer-range-talk/

Shower Chance This Evening…

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56/ 77

56/ 78

53/ 80

60/ 85

65/ 84

67/ 82

63/ 83 

Evening Shower Chance…A frontal boundary will push through the region this evening and while moisture will be limited overall, don’t be surprised by an increase in cloudiness and an isolated shower as the front moves through. Overall, we’re looking at a beautiful day, along with continued below normal temperatures.

Nice Late Week Stretch…The late week stretch will be dominated by high pressure and slowly moderating temperatures.  We’ll start well below normal, but temperatures will creep back to seasonable levels over the weekend.

Unsettled Times Ahead…More unsettled times are ahead late in the weekend into next week. We still have details to iron out, but we’ve introduced rain into the forecast as early as Sunday.  Some of the rain may become heavy at times early next week. Stay tuned.

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

John Salewicz captured this shot of an autumn looking sky Tuesday morning as unseasonably cool air was pouring in.  Thank you, John!

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While moisture will be limited overall, don't be surprised if a few showers dot the landscape this evening as a reinforcing push of cool air blows in.

While moisture will be limited overall, don’t be surprised if a few showers dot the landscape this evening as a reinforcing push of cool air blows in.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/13/shower-chance-this-evening/

Fall-Like Feel!

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59/ 70

54/ 76

55/ 78

56/ 80

60/ 82

65/ 82

69/ 88 

Fall-Like Breeze…The second of two cold fronts moved through central Indiana overnight.  A weak trough of low pressure is yet to pass, but will do so this afternoon and may be accompanied by a couple of showers. Otherwise, we’ll enjoy a stiff northwesterly breeze today and it’ll feel very much like early fall out!  The humidity of yesterday is long gone and we’ll really begin to notice the drier feel to the air this evening.

Dry skies and early fall-like temperatures will continue Wednesday.  Some may even start the day in the upper 40s away from the city, especially across western suburbs.

Weak Cold Front…A weak cold front will blow through Thursday, but moisture will be limited.  While an isolated shower is possible, we chose not to even bring out the shower icon for Thursday, as these will be just that- “isolated.”  Most will remain dry and unseasonably cool.

Warming Up…Temperatures will begin to moderate going into the weekend and push to above normal levels early next week.  We’ll keep a close eye on the weekend as past forecast model runs suggested some rain may enter the picture Sunday.  Most recent runs keep us dry through the weekend, but key on a storm system late Monday into Tuesday with possible beneficial rainfall.

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″-0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Fall-like temperatures are ahead over the next couple days.  We forecast an official low in the city tonight in the middle 50s, but some upper 40s can be anticipated across western and northwestern suburbs.

Fall-like temperatures are ahead over the next couple days. We forecast an official low in the city tonight in the middle 50s, but some upper 40s can be anticipated across western and northwestern suburbs.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/12/fall-like-feel/

Feeling Tropical Now, But Cooler Air Coming…

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68/ 80

60/ 74

54/ 76

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58/ 80

58/ 82

64/ 85 

Air You Can Wear…We’re awaking to lots of fog and very muggy conditions.  Dew points remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s (very oppressive)!  A shower or thunderstorm will be possible really at any time today, but most likely this afternoon as the first of two cold fronts drops into the region.  Similar to yesterday, locally heavy downpours will certainly be possible with all of the moisture in the air.

A secondary cold front will blow through Tuesday with a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  We’ll get in on a much cooler and drier air flow Tuesday evening and this will set the stage for a very pleasant rest of the work week, including below normal temperatures into the weekend.

Warming Up; Chance Of Storms…Temperatures will moderate and we’ll introduce showers and thunderstorms into your forecast Sunday.  Early thinking on next week suggests a potentially unsettled (stormy) one, but warmer than average.

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Precipitable water values will once again approach 2" today and assist in locally torrential downpours around the region.

Precipitable water values will once again approach 2″ today and assist in locally torrential downpours around the region.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/11/feeling-tropical-now-but-cooler-air-coming/

Another Cool Period Looming Before We Crank The Heat…

Cooler than normal air masses have been lined up this summer as frequently as airliners waiting to land at Atlanta-Hartsfield airport. With that said, it’s only fitting that we’re targeting…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/10/another-cool-period-looming-before-we-crank-the-heat/

Another Shot Of Cool Air Next Week, But Is A Warmer Period Looming Late Month?

Good evening and happy Friday!  Tonight’s video looks at the weekend weather, another push of cool air next week, and touches on the long range looking at late August and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/08/another-shot-of-cool-air-next-week-but-is-a-warmer-period-looming-late-month/

Digging Into The Data…

Less than 24 hours away from portions of the region experiencing a heavy rain event, we still have a wide range of rainfall numbers. This morning’s water vapor image clearly…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/07/digging-into-the-data/

Mostly Cloudy With Afternoon Shower Chance…

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63/ 81

62/ 82

61/ 76

59/ 83

61/ 84

63/ 86

64/ 85 

Watching Storms To Our Northwest…Fog is locally dense in many communities across central Indiana this morning and it’ll take a couple hours to burn off.  Plan for extra drive time on your way to work and school.  Once the fog burns off we’ll look at mostly cloudy skies today along with the chance of showers this afternoon.  A complex of thunderstorms is off to our northwest this morning and the general track will take this complex of showers and storms into our general area later this afternoon in a weakened form.  Not everyone will get wet, but rain chances will be around this afternoon and evening.

Friday Battle…Forecast models continue to struggle with exact heavy rain placement Thursday night into Friday, mainly due to how they handle an area of high pressure to our north.  Thinking here continues to suggest we’re under the gun for a rather rainy Friday, but must maintain this is a lower than normal confidence forecast.  Central and southern Indiana appears most at risk for locally heavy rainfall, including some 2″ totals somewhere in the aforementioned region.  Widespread 0.75″-1.25″ amounts remain a good bet.

Increasing Sunshine This Weekend…Sunshine will be welcome after a rather gloomy work week.  We forecast high pressure to build in and supply partly cloudy and pleasant conditions this weekend before rain chances return early next week.

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
We'll keep an eye on showers and thunderstorms to our northwest this morning. Forecast high resolution data points to this arriving into central Indiana in a weakened form this afternoon.

We’ll keep an eye on showers and thunderstorms to our northwest this morning. Forecast high resolution data points to this arriving into central Indiana in a weakened form this afternoon.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/06/mostly-cloudy-with-afternoon-shower-chance/

Tuesday Afternoon Video Update; Closer Look At Friday.

This afternoon’s video update takes a closer look at what continues to appear to be a rather cool, rainy close to the work week.  Widespread soaking rains and temperatures that remain in the 60s Friday are very possible for some portions of our area.

The Canadian forecast model has remained most consistent on Friday's forecast and holds firm on an axis of heavy rain through central Indiana.

The Canadian forecast model has remained most consistent on Friday’s forecast and holds firm on an axis of heavy rain through central Indiana.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/05/tuesday-afternoon-video-update-closer-look-at-friday/

Saturday Morning Rambles…

Happy Saturday! Upper level energy will hang around the region today, creating a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Similar to Friday, a few of these could be strong…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/02/saturday-morning-rambles-3/

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