Quick Tuesday evening video update to discuss the colder times ahead…
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Category: Forecast Models
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/28/tuesday-evening-video-update-2/
Oct 28
Early Rain Then Cooler…
Latest surface analysis shows a cold front just west of the state this morning and this front will push west to east across the state through the morning hours. Forecast…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/28/early-rain-then-cooler/
Oct 26
Weekly Outlook: Big Weather Changes…
October, month-to-date, shows a reflection of cool anomalies across the Great Lakes region and wetter than normal across the central and Tennessee Valley. The week will get off to an…
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Oct 25
The Ups And Downs Of Autumn…
It simply doesn’t get much better than this! Wall-to-wall sunshine and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s across central Indiana this afternoon… If you aren’t outside now, we are making it mandatory to get outside upon reading this! 🙂 Enjoy, as the ups and downs of autumn will send us in an opposite direction late in the upcoming week.
Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the evolution of things heading into next weekend. While there are still a couple of important differences between the GFS and European, we’re growing increasingly confident on a much colder feel next weekend.
Note the latest GFS operational run stacked atop individual ensemble members. Needless to say, there’s ensemble support and leads to a higher confidence forecast in the mid range of a deep trough carving itself out across the Mid West and East. Unseasonably cold air would be associated with this.
Meanwhile, the European model is more extreme, suggesting a cut off feature develops across the southeast before helping spawn a Nor Easter and leading to high ground accumulating snows from the southern Appalachians northeast along the spine of the mountains.
Again, there’s ensemble support (left) to go with the operational run (right).
Whether or not we get some sort of cut off low pressure system to really dig in and help generate high ground snow is up for debate and will be the focal point for many for the upcoming week.
Back here on the home front we’re becoming increasingly confident on the first push of wintry type air here next weekend and timing will have to be fine tuned as we move forward, including the all-important Halloween forecast. The type air mass moving in will most likely put an end to the growing season across these parts as it’s likely capable of producing multiple below freezing nights.
Much more in the days ahead! In the meantime, enjoy what we have in front of us now!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/25/the-ups-and-downs-of-autumn/
Oct 21
Weekly Outlook: Generally Pleasant Autumn Weather…
October (month to date) is running slightly wetter than normal. Through the 21st, rainfall is running 0.52″ above normal at IND. A reflection of cooler than normal air remains centered…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/21/weekly-outlook-generally-pleasant-autumn-weather/
Oct 14
Much Needed Dry Time On Deck For #Harvest14…
Despite another day of showery, damp weather Wednesday, the overall “trend is our friend” in the short to mid range as a much drier pattern develops.
Drier, cooler air will penetrate into the Mid West and Ohio Valley as the weekend draws closer.
It’s important to note the GFS has support on the drier trend to include some other highly respected mid range model suites such as the Canadian and European.
The next round of rain arrives Tuesday with reinforcing chilly air that could deliver mid and late week frost and freeze conditions for parts of the region. The Canadian is a little more bullish on rainfall totals when stacked against the GFS and European. We’ll continue to monitor.
Regardless of Tuesday rain, we’ll quickly return to a dry regime by the middle of next week.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) agrees on a drier pattern in the mid range.
Latest forecast rainfall totals off the GFS model suggest amounts of 0.50″, or less, across the region over the upcoming 7-days, and it’s important to note half of that likely falls Wednesday with showers associated with swirling low pressure around the region.
Note the cooler trend developing in the 7-day, as well:
If your company depends on snow removal or other types of winter weather, please send us an e-mail for customized winter weather consulting at bill@indywx.com.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/14/much-needed-dry-time-on-deck-for-harvest14/
Oct 14
Tuesday Morning Rambles: Rain, Dry Time, And Frost?!
More rain is in the forecast today and Wednesday as a big, slow moving autumn storm system takes its time moving through the region. Additional rain the next 36 hours…
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Oct 08
Rainy Friday Or No?
Thursday will feature showers and unseasonably cool air. All in all, it won’t be a chamber of commerce day around these parts. Pack the rain gear and jacket! What’s up…
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Oct 06
Weekly Outlook: Active And Cool!
Another active period of weather is in store for the region. (After an extended stretch of pleasant conditions from late September into the opening of October, I guess we shouldn’t complain too much).
Dry days will be at a premium over the course of the upcoming 7-days. The final in a series of disturbances in the fast northwest flow will blow through the region Tuesday. This will offer up a threat of scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder through the daytime hours. Latest forecast radar data suggests showers and embedded thunder will be ongoing Tuesday morning.
After a dry day Wednesday (filled with lots of sunshine), we anticipate clouds and rain to quickly return as early as Thursday. Forecast models handle the evolution of things differently at this juncture. For now, we’ll side with a blend of the GFS and Euro and serve up best rain chances late Thursday into Friday, followed by less concentration of rain Saturday, coupled with cool north winds.
Saturday is a tough call at this point. The cold front will be south of our area and chilly Canadian high pressure will be building in, but we may keep considerable cloudiness and pesky showers around (similar to last Saturday?). Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune.
Note the cooler than normal air settling in over the weekend.
7-day rainfall numbers vary greatly from model to model. Upcoming weekly rainfall totals range from as little as 1″ to as much as 2″. The Canadian model is the most aggressive, suggesting over 2″ on a widespread basis.
Just beyond this time next week we may be looking at an even more significant storm system, but we still have time to fine tune things as we move forward.
Despite the dry weather late September through October’s open, the past 30 days have featured beneficial to excessive Corn Belt rainfall…
Year-to-date has featured a wet eastern region. Also note the dry pattern across the southwest (some places under 1″ YTD)! Officially, we’re just slightly wetter than normal at IND, year-to-date (+0.53″).
Thinking longer term towards the darker, colder, and snowier months ahead… The JAMSTEC remains “bullish” on a regime plenty capable of delivering the cold and snowy “goods” for the region… BTW- we usually post our annual winter outlook the first Friday of October. Things have been very hectic as of late and we’re going to have to delay this release by a few weeks….
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/06/weekly-outlook-active-and-cool/
Oct 02
Periods Of Storms; BIG Push Of Chilly Air On The Way…
|
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
61/ 83 |
46/ 70 |
43/ 49 |
40/ 57 |
44/ 64 |
49/ 64 |
48/ 70 |
Changes…BIG weather changes begin today as a warm front lifts through the region. This will lead to a warm and windy afternoon with showers and a possible rumble of thunder arriving as early as the morning rush. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening, but we also want to note there will be plenty of dry time in between rain drops. A bigger push of showers and thunderstorms will blow into town tonight into the wee morning hours Friday. A couple of these storms may reach severe levels, especially for western communities. Damaging straight line winds are the biggest concern.
Showers and thunderstorms continue Friday, but the bigger weather story will become our temperatures as a MUCH colder air mass rushes into the area Friday evening on a gusty northwest wind. Falling temperatures can be expected through the afternoon Friday so you’ll want to be sure to pack the jacket and cold weather gear tomorrow.
Chilly Weekend…Well below normal temperatures can be expected this weekend along with unsettled conditions. Saturday continues to look like a mostly cloudy and blustery day with periods of drizzle and/ or sprinkles. Sunday will feature more in the way of sunshine, but caution we may also deal with widely scattered light showers.
Timing Issues…We’ll fine tune early next week once our first storm system moves through the region. As of now, we target Tuesday as the best day of showers, but timing issues abound. More on this later.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.50″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
John Salewicz sent in this great sunset photo on the Carmel/ Zionsville line Wednesday evening. Thanks, John!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/02/periods-of-storms-big-push-of-chilly-air-on-the-way/