Before we discuss the weekend winter storm threat, we still have to get through the overnight period-morning hours Tuesday with embedded heavy rain and storms. Some of these storms could offer up gusty winds and a few could be strong as they rumble across central Indiana Tuesday morning.
Most of the storms should push through west-central Indiana well before the morning rush hour.
Forecast radar 4am Tuesday.
Forecast radar 6am Tuesday.
Attention will then shift to the winter storm threat this weekend- particularly Friday night through early Sunday morning. We still have to fine tune the all-important specifics, but confidence is rising on the possibility of a significant wintry event impacting at least portions of the region this weekend. March snow events provide added headaches of dealing with the impacts of marginal temperatures, higher sun angle/ time of day, etc. Conversely, the tight thermal gradients noted with most late season, spring snow events can be impressive, as they can quickly feedback, ultimately leading to swaths of thumping wet, heavy snow. Hoosiers don’t have to think back too terribly far to some impressive and impactful March snow events. Modeling today is in relatively good and surprising agreement, especially considering the lack of agreement models have dealt us weather ‘folk for the past few months. 🙂
GFS ensemble members are focusing in on a snow event this weekend.
It’s still early in the game and a lot can (and likely will) change with model runs over the next few days. It’s wise not to make knee-jerk reactions to the operational model solutions, but instead understand the overall pattern driving the potential of this memorable March wintry event. Anomalously cold air in southern Canada will spill south this weekend and help aid in the “fun and games” ahead. At the same time, given the time of year, “suppression depression” isn’t likely as their will be resistance from the south-central Plains and southeast ridging in place. As of now, we think the I-70 corridor could be the “sweet spot” for snow totals, understanding fine-tuning will be required moving forward. Where a snowpack accumulates this weekend, expect temperatures Sunday night/ Monday morning to fall into the 10s.
Much more later!
Longer-term indications would suggest the period of chilly, wintry-like, air has a window to take over, but the window is small. Trends would seem to yield warmer solutions once past mid-month, with perhaps a “stick and hold” spring regime taking over.
Summary:
Threats and Timing:
Despite the lack of sunshine this morning, temperatures continue to run much milder than average. We’re currently running nearly 20° above where we should be at the 9a hour.
A quiet start to the work week is ahead as high pressure dominates early on. That said, a weak storm system will scoot through the state Monday night and Tuesday morning and this will help offer up the chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.
The next (more significant) storm system will pose a severe weather risk to close the week. We continue to keep a close eye on Friday and the Storm Prediction Center is as well, with western IL, IN, and western KY in their Day 6 Outlook. It’s still early, but the primary focus with the severe potential this storm may pose will be large hail and damaging straight line winds. Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data.
We’ll turn sharply colder Friday night and Saturday. Though it’ll feel much colder, we’ll really only “chill” to seasonal levels, including a gusty northwesterly breeze Saturday.
Longer-term, we’re rumbling into a much more active weather pattern through the mid range period. As the mean trough sets-up position in the west, the ridge will flex it’s muscle across the east yet again during early portions of Week 2. This will set the stage for a repeat of what we deal with Friday and, accordingly, we’ll have to monitor early next week for portions of severe weather yet again.
Winds will turn strong and gusty out of the southwest this afternoon, noted by the tightly packed isobars (lines of equal pressure) along with considerable mid and high level clouds.
Clouds will lower and thicken Saturday and we may also have to deal with periods of fog, as well. Showers and drizzle will lift into town as the day progresses, especially by afternoon and evening.
We don’t expect heavy rain this weekend. In fact, model data continues to really back off on expected totals. The general consensus is between 0.15″ and 0.25″ across central Indiana.
After a mild Saturday, cooler (but not cold) air will ooze into the Ohio Valley Sunday.
Resurgent cold air will blow into town during the middle and latter portions of the upcoming work week. Highs will return to the 30s with overnight lows in the lower 20s. We’ll likely add scattered snow showers into the mix as well.