Category: Forecast Models

Another Week Is Upon Us; Looking Ahead…

I.  The new work week will open up with a continuation of unseasonably cool temperatures.  Speaking of temperatures, how nice has it been to have air equivalent of late-September as we get set to wrap up the month of June?!

II:  A weak upper level disturbance will drift overhead Monday afternoon and help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours.  Not everyone will get wet Monday evening, but a couple gusty storms are possible.  Here’s a look at the radar valid at 6p Monday.

III.  After a dry Tuesday and Wednesday, better shower and thunderstorm chances will return to our forecast for late week into next weekend.  Additionally, temperatures and humidity levels will return to closer to seasonal norms.

IV.  An active pattern will remain with us as we progress through the first half of June.  A busy NW flow aloft will likely send multiple storm clusters southeast into the region and we’ll have to be mindful for the potential of some of these storm complexes containing strong-to-severe storms and excessive rainfall.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/25/another-week-is-upon-us-looking-ahead/

VIDEO: Heavy Rain Develops Overnight Into Friday…

The combination of an approaching cold front to our north and remnant tropical moisture from Cindy will serve to enhance rainfall amounts across central Indiana late tonight into early Friday evening.…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/22/video-heavy-rain-develops-overnight-into-friday/

VIDEO: Storms Rumble In For Some Tonight; Tropical Talk; & A Cool Close To June…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/20/video-storms-rumble-in-for-some-tonight-tropical-talk-a-cool-close-to-june/

Upcoming Week Headliners…

I. Drier and Cooler Air Returns:  A cold front will pass this evening and allow a much less humid and cooler air mass to return to the state.  Dew points will fall into the 50s by Monday morning and highs should only reach the upper 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon.  Refreshing air will remain in place through the day Tuesday.

A much less humid air mass will arrive to open the work week.

II. Watching the Gulf:  All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this week as it tries to breed early season tropical “mischief.”  There are many more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important details (ultimate track and strength), but confidence is high on a depression or storm forming in the Gulf by middle to latter portions of the week.  Early thinking would place more emphasis on this being a big inland rain event across portions of the southeast, as opposed to this thing ramping up fast enough to be a big wind/ surge problem, but stay tuned.

Confidence is high on early season tropical development this week in the Gulf of Mexico.

III. Unsettled Weather Returns:  A storm system will approach the region by the latter portions of the work week, including the weekend.  As a result, a warmer and increasingly moist air mass will return and help spawn showers and thunderstorms.  Unfortunately, timing isn’t our friend as numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday-Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet.

Heavy rain and storm chances increase late week.

IV. June Ends On A Cool Note:  Once we get rid of the significant storm next weekend, an unseasonably cool air mass will build in over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the 8-10 day time period.  How do highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s sound and lows in the middle 50s?

Models agree on an unseasonably cool close to June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/18/upcoming-week-headliners/

JMA Weeklies: Heat Relief Coming And An Active Pattern As We Get Into July…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • Heat relief on the way through Week 1
  • Core of heat, relative to normal, backs west through the period
  • Active NW flow regime to open July

Week 1:  

The JMA Weeklies really try to emphasize the “transient” nature of the pattern and associated dry, hot weather some folks were becoming concerned about only a couple of days ago.  Week 1 is highlighted by a much wetter regime through the Ohio Valley and most of the East.  As the ridge pulls back west, a cooler regime returns to our region, while the Southwest bakes with anomalously hot weather.

Week 2:  

The pattern favors wetter than normal conditions across the upper Mid West, including Great Lakes.  The mean upper ridge is forecast to remain out west.  Fittingly, the warmest temperatures, relative to average, will be confined to the west.

Weeks 3-4:  

As we push into July, the upper pattern sets-up in a manner that will require us to keep a very close eye on storm potential.  With a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of storm clusters impacting the region- tracking northwest to southeast.  Through the balance of the period, the hottest weather should remain to our west, relative to normal.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/15/jma-weeklies-heat-relief-coming-and-an-active-pattern-as-we-get-into-july/

Another Stormy Day Ahead…

The Storm Prediction Center includes the northwestern portions of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather later this afternoon and evening.  Given the overall set-up and morning trends from data, it wouldn’t surprise us if this threat expands further southeast in future updates later today from the SPC.

Similar to Tuesday, any storms that develop will be capable of locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  While storms should move in a quicker fashion today, precipitable water values (PWATs) remain downright tropical and will exceed 2″ later this afternoon.

Overall storm coverage should become more widespread as we push into the afternoon and evening hours.  Here’s what the radar may look like during the 4p, 6p, and 10p time frames:

From a severe perspective, the biggest concern is damaging straight line winds with stronger storms.  Remain weather-aware later today, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/14/another-stormy-day-ahead/

VIDEO: Hot, Humid Weather Gives Way To Better Storm Chances…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/13/video-hot-humid-weather-gives-way-to-better-storm-chances/

Model Data Remains Consistent On A More Active Pattern Returning…

Today’s 12z model suite is in and it remains consistent on a more active weather pattern returning to the delight of many Hoosiers! A blend of the GFS and European 10-day rainfall numbers print out 2″ for Indianapolis.  The GFS ensemble ‘mean’ (a blend of 21 individual members) agrees.

Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:

  • Wednesday into Thursday
  • Saturday into Sunday
  • Middle parts of the following week

While we don’t see any sort of uniform type rains in the upcoming period, the “smattering” of storms should help most neighborhoods get in on the rainy “goods” at one time or another over the upcoming week and a half.  Keep in mind, we’re in mid-June now and it’s mighty difficult to ask for anything much more than scattered storms this time of year on through late-summer…unless a tropical entity gets involved.  That’s just the way this time of year is.  With that said, localized torrential downpours are a very good bet from time to time, beginning as early as mid-week, as precipitable water values approach, or exceed, 2″ (about as moisture-rich as you can ask the air mass to get around these parts) into the upcoming weekend.

As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood.  Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week.  Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern.  Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things.  Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/11/model-data-remains-consistent-on-a-more-active-pattern-returning/

VIDEO: Ready to heat things up this weekend?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/08/video-ready-to-heat-things-up-this-weekend/

Dry Times Remain: Briefly Cooler Then The Heat Is On…

Our overall weather pattern will be dominated by short-term cooling, significant warming by the weekend, and dry times continuing.

We’re noticing a significant change to the brand of our air mass this evening as a northerly wind is taking hold and helping to usher in lower dew points.  This is only the beginning of a significantly cooler stretch of weather that will take us through the day Tuesday, continuing into Thursday.  While the upper level low will drift south into the Northeast, our region will be dominated by a northerly flow and a much cooler, refreshing air mass into the latter portions of the work week.

In fact, we forecast highs Wednesday to only top the upper 60s, and this will be a good 10°-15° below average for June 7th.  Lows each morning through Friday will start out in the lower-middle 50s for the city, itself, but some outlying neighborhoods will fall deep into the 40s.  Very refreshing, indeed, for early June!

High pressure will dominate our weather through late week, continuing the overall drier than normal theme.

Models slowly begin to increase moisture levels as we move into the weekend and an isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop, but widespread rains of significance aren’t anticipated for the foreseeable future.

The bigger story by the weekend will be a developing hot weather pattern.  Temperatures will be flirting with the 90° mark as early as Sunday and Monday.  Instead of running 10°-15° below normal such as midweek, temperatures by early next week will be running 5°-10° above normal and very much like the “heart” of summer.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/05/dry-times-remain-briefly-cooler-then-the-heat-is-on/

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