Category: Forecast Models

Mar 03

Sunday Morning Rambles: Tracking 2 Systems This Week And More Unseasonably Warm Conditions Ahead…

Updated 03.03.24 @ 8:19a

A gorgeous Sunday is on deck with highs rising into the 60s and near 70° west. Enjoy that sunshine while we’ve got it!

Dry conditions should prevail through the daytime hours Monday before showers and embedded thunder roll into town overnight and Tuesday morning. Unsettled conditions will hold through the day Tuesday.

Rainfall totals of 0.25” to 0.75” will be common by Tuesday night across the region.

The next low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact us Friday into Saturday. Look for a more widespread, heavier round of precipitation with this particular system as we close the work week.

Despite cooler shots of air flowing in briefly behind frontal passages, there’s no sustained below normal temperature regime on the horizon, and for good reason with this kind of MJO:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/03/sunday-morning-rambles-tracking-2-systems-this-week-and-more-unseasonably-warm-conditions-ahead/

Mar 01

Another Spring-Like Weekend And Week Ahead…

Updated 03.01.24 @ 5:53a

Despite a rather gloomy and seasonally chilly Friday, the remainder of the upcoming 7-day period will feature nothing but unseasonably warm conditions. We’re set to open meteorological spring like we closed out meteorological winter: well above normal in the temperature department.

After a perfect weekend (at least by early-March standards), we’ll see periods of unsettled weather as an anomalous upper air pattern remains locked in. Note the deep western trough and expansive, strong eastern ridge.

We’ll push 60° Saturday, 70° Sunday, and zip well into the 70s Monday. (Monday’s record is 78°, set back in 1983, just in case you were wondering).

Dry conditions should remain until we get to Monday night and Tuesday morning.

It’s all the start of an unsettled pattern. An upper low will lift north into the OHV Wednesday with additional showers, followed by a new cold front and associated surface low set to impact our neck of the woods mid and late week.

By the time we get to next weekend, widespread 1”+ rain totals can be expected from a combination of the systems.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/01/another-spring-like-weekend-and-week-ahead/

Feb 29

Long Range Report: Warm Open To Meteorological Spring; MJO And NAO Impacts Longer Term…

Updated 02.29.24 @ 5:13a

Tomorrow we’ll welcome in meteorological spring and the first couple weeks of March appear to continue the unseasonably warm trend. At times, additional warm records will likely fall.

A ‘mean’ eastern ridge (and strong western trough) will dominate the 1st half of March.
Well above average temperatures are expected through the 1st half of March.

This is strongly correlated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation highly amplified in the classic warm phases this time of year. (You can absolutely say goodbye to any sort of sustained cold prospects this time of year with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and especially 6). Now, down the road, we’ll want to watch and see if we can maintain this amplitude and rumble into the transitional colder Phase 7 before a potential opportunity to see cold grow more impressive should we *finally get into Phase 8 late month. Remember that we made an attempt at that back in mid-February before things instead collapsed into the neutral phase. Moral of the story for folks longing for one more bout of sustained cold prior to the warmer months ahead, “don’t hold your breath.” The trend certainly isn’t your friend.

Back to the present. No matter what the teleconnections say, an amplified MJO will always win out. And the current MJO forecast to roll through the phases listed above screams that our recent warm times will “keep on keepin’ on” as we navigate the 1st half of March.

MJO forecast through March 13th

The Phase 5 and Phase 6 composite analogs at 500mb (upper air pattern) for an El Niño March:

What this should also result in is an active first half of the month, including above normal rainfall and likely at least another early season strong to severe weather event before we get to mid month.

It’s a classic pattern that should feature low pressure systems ejecting out of the Southwest and South-central into the Plains and western Great Lakes region. That puts our neck of the woods on the warm/ wet (and at times stormy) side of the equation.

As we move into late-March and early April, we’ll have our eyes focused on the MJO and whether or not we can, indeed, get into those traditionally colder phases. Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/29/long-range-report-warm-open-to-meteorological-spring-mjo-and-nao-impacts-longer-term/

Feb 28

VIDEO: Sharply Colder Today Before A Quick Warm-Up; No Let Up To The Warm Pattern Down The Road…

Updated 02.28.24 @ 7:44a Today will serve as a reminder we are still in winter, after all, but another quick warm-up will get underway as we head through the weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/28/video-sharply-colder-today-before-a-quick-warm-up-no-let-up-to-the-warm-pattern-down-the-road/

Feb 27

VIDEO: Severe Weather Expected This Evening And Overnight; Sharply Colder Wednesday…

Updated 02.27.24 @ 5:58a An unseasonably warm and quiet daytime will take a stormy turn tonight. All modes of severe weather are in play late evening and into the overnight,…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/27/video-severe-weather-expected-this-evening-and-overnight-sharply-colder-wednesday/

Feb 26

Monday Evening Thoughts On Storm Potential Tonight – Wednesday…

Updated 02.26.24 @ 5:51p

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the ‘marginal’ risk area within their Day 1 Outlook. This is for the potential of isolated strong cells developing later this evening and through the overnight (large hail being the biggest concern from any stronger cell that pops), but this shouldn’t be a widespread severe weather event by any stretch of the imagination.

The Day 2 Outlook remains largely unchanged from this morning across our immediate area.

Concern remains that all modes of severe weather will be realized across northern IL and northern IN Tuesday evening into the overnight.

We want to reiterate that the majority of the daytime should be void of any sort of significant rain or storms across the state. It’s after 7p, and more so after 9p, that we expect discrete cells to initialize and roll across northern IN. These discrete cells will be capable of rotating (TOR potential remains), but also have the potential of damaging winds and large hail. The most widespread of evening convection should be focused north of the city, itself, but we’ll keep a close eye on tonight’s and Tuesday morning’s data.

We continue to believe a more pronounced squall line will march east across the state, including central and southern Indiana, during the overnight and predawn hours and it’s with this line that an elevated damaging wind threat will be hoisted. Timing this threat out features the 2a to 5a Wednesday time block from west to east. We recommend reviewing your severe weather safety plan and have a means of receiving the latest warning information should they be issued.

Showers and embedded thunder will remain widespread through the early morning hours before pushing off to our east by mid morning. By this time, we’ll be trending sharply colder (temperatures will fall off the cliff Wednesday morning), drier, but very windy.

Predawn highs around 60° Wednesday will be shaved by 30° by late morning along with a biting northwesterly wind gusting 30-40 MPH.

High pressure will deliver a colder, but sunny Thursday before a weak system delivers a return of clouds and light (insignificant) showers to close the work week.

The weekend continues to look mighty nice, including a quick rebound in the mercury and another taste of spring ahead of our next approaching storm early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/26/monday-evening-thoughts-on-tonight-wednesday/

Feb 26

VIDEO: Forecasting Record Warmth Today; Timing Out Rounds Of Storms Late Tonight – Wednesday AM…

Updated 02.26.24 @ 7:30a We’ll go from “chamber of commerce” type weather to open the work week, including pushing for a record high later this afternoon, to rounds of storms…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/26/video-forecasting-record-warmth-today-timing-out-rounds-of-storms-late-tonight-wednesday-am/

Feb 24

VIDEO: Overall, Strong Signal For Unseasonable Warmth Remains On Charts Into Early March. Watching Storms Early Next Week…

Updated 02.24.24 @ 8a Any lingering light snow showers will quickly come to an end this morning and we’ll welcome sunshine back into the picture later today. Sunday will feature…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/24/video-overall-strong-signal-for-unseasonable-warmth-remains-on-charts-into-early-march-watching-storms-early-next-week/

Feb 23

VIDEO: Tracking Snow Tonight Followed By A Quick Warm-Up And Storms Next Week…

Updated 02.23.24 @ 7:34a

A fast moving clipper system will offer up a round of snow tonight across northern and central IN. Here’s our latest thinking with respect to accumulation numbers. Snow lovers, we recommend getting out to enjoy early Saturday as an increasingly powerful late February sun angle will have many asking “what snow?!” as early as the afternoon.

A quick warm-up is on deck for the 2nd half of the weekend and we’re eyeing the potential of a couple rounds of storms Tuesday. A few of these storms could become severe, with damaging straight line winds the biggest concern from this distance with any of the severe activity that potentially develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/23/video-tracking-snow-tonight-followed-by-a-quick-warm-up-and-storms-next-week/

Feb 22

Just A Little Busy In The Forecast Office…

Updated 02.22.24 @ 7:20a

“Busy” is one way to describe the upcoming week to 10 days worth of weather as the pattern around these parts, and a large chunk of the East, takes on a spring look and feel. Everything from thunderstorms, rain, clipper snow, and an opportunity for strong to severe storms is included in the week ahead.

An area of low pressure will move through central and southern Indiana this afternoon, continuing to present scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. While north-central Indiana has been the focal zone for early morning activity, we anticipate more of central and southern Indiana will be impacted throughout the afternoon and early evening.

All of this precipitation and embedded thunder will push off to the south of the area around or just after dinnertime. A quiet night is on deck with cooler air flowing back into the state. This will lead to a calm close to the work week as temperatures “warm” back to around 50° Friday afternoon as sunshine returns.

As we open the weekend, a rapidly moving clipper system will drop southeast across the region, eventually leading to several inches of wet snow for the east TN and western NC mountains. Back here on the home front, a period of snow is expected to develop late Friday night and predawn Saturday. While this certainly won’t be anything like what we saw last Friday, a wet coating of snow is possible in spots as this upper air feature dives across the region. By daybreak Saturday, all of the snow will be out of the area and we’ll be talking about working in more in the way of sunshine into the mix as our day progresses. Gusty northerly winds Saturday morning will diminish as the day wears on.

A quick warm-up is on the way for the 2nd half of the weekend. In fact, highs will approach 60° Sunday afternoon (how’s that for weather whip-lash?!). These warmer times will allow a more potent round of storm to rumble across the region as we progress through the early stages of next week. A warm front will lift northeast across the region Monday with showers and then attention turns to the threat of strong to severe thunderstorm potential as we go through our Tuesday and Wednesday. More on the specific timing and severe threats (damaging straight line wind appears to be the biggest concern from this distance) with updates to come in the days ahead.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already highlighting the region for the opportunity of severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday (2/27) Severe Weather Outlook: Source SPC
Wednesday (2/28) Severe Weather Outlook: Source SPC

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/22/just-a-little-busy-in-the-forecast-office/

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