Mar 27
Updated 03.27.24 @ 7:45a
High pressure will build overhead and allow increasing sunshine through midweek. Enjoy that Vitamin D while you can, as a wet pattern emerges for the Easter weekend and into early next week. Multiple rounds of heavy rain may eventually lead to a flood risk by early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/27/video-briefly-calmer-pattern-midweek-takes-on-a-wet-unsettled-look-over-the-easter-weekend-and-early-next-week/
Mar 26
Updated 03.26.24 @ 7:30a Wind is the story this morning, and that will continue through the afternoon and evening. A “big hair warning” is in effect today. 🙂 A bit…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/26/video-line-of-storms-to-develop-this-afternoon-busy-pattern-ahead-to-close-march-and-open-april/
Mar 25
Updated 03.25.24 @ 7:25a While the work week will open on a quiet note today, we’ll really notice an uptick in winds by afternoon and these will only continue to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/25/video-batten-down-the-hatches-keeping-an-eye-on-a-line-of-potentially-strong-severe-storms-tuesday-pm/
Mar 24
Updated 03.24.24 @ 8:20a
While a period of unsettled weather looms late Monday and Tuesday, the majority of the upcoming week will feature quiet conditions across our neck of the woods. We’re watching Tuesday afternoon for the potential of severe weather across the state.
The ‘mean’ trough will settle into the western CONUS and that’s where the coldest anomalies will setup shop.
Forecast period: 03.24.24 – 03.31.24
We’ll close the weekend with quiet conditions in place. Anticipate gusty winds to kick up Monday as our next storm system approaches from the west. This will also deliver a few showers Monday night before heavier rain and embedded thunder arrives Tuesday predawn. An additional round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe (damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out).
A cold front will sweep east and end the rain/ storm threat Tuesday night with calmer weather returning for mid and late week. The next chance of rain will arrive next weekend. Speaking of next weekend, though early, model guidance is suggestive that we may be looking at a heavy rain event around the time that we close out March and open April. Just something we’ll be keeping an eye on in the days ahead.
Upcoming storm dates to keep an eye on:
*10-day Rainfall Projection: 2.00″ to 3.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/24/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-48/
Mar 22
Updated 03.22.24 @ 7:56a
The ‘mean’ trough position will take up shop across the western portion of the country over the upcoming week before shifting into the East in the 10-15 day period. We reiterate while the balance of the upcoming 2 weeks will run cooler than normal, we don’t see anything significantly colder than normal on the horizon and also plenty of transitional warmth ahead of approaching storms.
Note how the trough shifts east late in the period.
Back to the immediate term, we’ll only see a few light showers later this afternoon (trace to 0.10”). Greatest coverage should arrive after lunch, continuing into mid-afternoon. Again, “light” is the key word.
Colder air arrives for the weekend, itself. We can expect mid to upper 20s both Saturday and Sunday morning.
A new, stronger, storm will blow into town with more in the way of widespread heavier rain and thunder Monday night into the day Tuesday.
Another system will follow late week and next weekend.
1” to 2” is a good bet across the greater region by next Sunday. (The bulk of this falls with our Monday night and Tuesday system).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/22/friday-morning-rambles-more-long-range-chatter/
Mar 21
Updated 03.21.24 @ 7a The area will receive a glancing blow from our late week low pressure “tag team” that will deliver light rain Friday (most areas will be under…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/21/video-light-rain-returns-friday-cooler-wetter-than-normal-pattern-anticipated-o-the-next-2-3-weeks/
Mar 20
Updated 03.20.24 @ 4:45a
Up until this week, March was off to a toasty start. Despite the recent transition to cooler air, the month is still running nearly 9° above normal.
Another surge of chilly weather will descend into the state today. A hard freeze is dialed up Thursday morning.
Light rain Friday will interrupt the otherwise dry, quiet pattern we’ve been enjoying.
This will be a nuisance variety type of rain, along with “raw” conditions to close the work week. Despite the insignificant showers, this does signal another transition towards a wetter, more active pattern ahead next week.
We continue to watch the threat of a heavier rain/ stronger storm event Monday night into Tuesday followed by another soaker late week.
While the pattern does look cooler than we started the month, I still don’t see any reason to beat the drum for out of season, “harsh” cold some other sources are signaling as we go through the next couple weeks- at least not for our neck of the woods.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/20/the-transitions-of-spring/
Mar 19
Updated 03.19.24 @ 5:34a It’s a cold start to the day across central IN, but this time of year, especially with enough sunshine, we can warm-up nicely. That’ll be the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/19/video-turning-gusty-later-today-damp-close-to-the-work-week-and-looking-ahead-to-a-chance-of-severe-weather-early-next-week/
Mar 17
Updated 03.17.24 @ 8:10a The theme for the bulk of the week ahead will be both cooler and drier. A few mornings will feature a hard freeze, including overnight lows…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/17/video-weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook/
Mar 16
Updated 03.16.24 @ 7:55a
Indianapolis is running right at average month to date from a rainfall perspective (1.78”).
We’re transitioning to a much drier pattern in the week ahead as a cooler, Canadian airmass dominates (for a change).
Several hard freezes (mid-upper 20s) are on tap in the upcoming 7-10 day period: Monday/ Tuesday morning and again late next week/ next weekend.
Cooler? Yes, but I still don’t see anything overly cold on the horizon as we navigate the next couple of weeks.
What’s more notable is the shift in the precipitation pattern over the next few weeks. The dry Week 1 (now) transitions to a significantly wetter and more active look Week 2 (below).
The JMA also sees the wetter regime.
This is forecast to continue in the Weeks 3/4 timeframe.
Continues to back up the idea of an active (wet) and stormy (more in the way of severe weather) spring as a whole.
Down the road, an eventual move into a hot, dry (compared to normal) summer may loom. (Yet one that is very active from a tropical perspective, continuing into the fall). More on that in the coming weeks…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/16/long-range-report-cooler-drier-week-1-turns-wetter-to-close-march-open-april/