Category: Forecast Discussion

Feb 07

More Weekend Snow Talk…

We’re still dealing with some questions that will have to be sorted out for the weekend’s snow.  Latest high resolution data suggests we may see a couple of waves of accumulating snow cross the state this weekend.  Namely, we’re focused on late Saturday night into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning.  Scattered snow showers will fall during the day Saturday, but shouldn’t be a big deal and won’t impact everyone.

It’s a tough and challenging pattern we’re in over the next 60 hours and forecast models will continue to struggle with handling upper level energy as it ejects off the Rockies and heads east.  While our initial idea of a more organized, robust, storm system won’t come to fruition, it’s certainly possible some central Indiana neighborhoods deal with a “few” inches of fresh snow by Monday morning.  It’ll be important to stay tuned to latest forecasts this weekend as what may seem to be a rather harmless inch, or so, of snow could pile up to the tune of 2″-5″ for some areas should latest high resolution model data, hot off the press, come to fruition.

Case in point, the latest high resolution NAM model, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics, paints a couple of stripes of snow across central Indiana and seems to have a pretty good handle on the evolution of things over the next 48-60 hours.  It should be noted that not all model data suggests accumulating snow is ahead this weekend.  THAT SAID, many times, in similar weather patterns, the high resolution data performed better.  We’ll fine tune things and have a fresh updated 7-Day forecast available to you in the morning.  Make it a great night!

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Feb 06

Bitterly Cold And Snowy Pattern Rolls Along…

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Forecast Updated: 02.07.14 @ 8:07a

Frigid Close To The Work Week…Arctic high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley as we close out the work week.  While this will lead to a mostly sunny sky, downright frigid conditions can be expected.  The day will dawn with temperatures solidly below zero and include wind chill values as cold as 30 degrees below- a painfully cold start to the day, needless to say.

Watching A Weekend Snow Maker…We continue to keep a close eye on the weekend as another round of accumulating snow waits on deck.  Questions remain as to just how much snow accumulates and while model data continues to suggest we’re only looking at a light, 1-3″, weekend snow event at the moment, the chance is still there that modeling begins to trend a little more “robust” with upper level energy as it crosses the Ohio Valley.  High snow ratios will be at play here, meaning we’ll squeeze out more than the usual 1″ of snow for every 10th of an inch of liquid.  We bracket Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as the best chance of accumulating snow, but note this timing could change as we move through the next 24 hours.  Stay tuned.

Weekend Snow Bookended By A Bitter Feel…A fresh blast of bitterly cold air will pour into the Ohio Valley and Mid West region to kick off the new work week.  Temperatures will average more than 20 degrees colder than seasonal levels to begin the new work week and feature at least one, if not two, night(s) below zero.  The brutally cold, snowy winter of 2013-2014 just keeps on keeping on…

Watching The Southern Stream…Model data is really struggling in the longer term and it has to do with how each respected model set handles energy in the southern and northern branch of the jet stream.  We’re taking a “middle of the line” approach for now, including chances of snow the middle of next week.

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Feb 04

Major Winter Storm Underway

11:00p update

Snowfall has been falling to “beat the band” the past couple hours across central Indiana.  Just within the past 54 minutes we’ve added 1.2″ here at IndyWx.com HQ in southeast Boone County.  Storm totals thus far are approaching 7″ as of this report.

While you’ll note the drier push of air invading portions of south-central Indiana, it’s likely accumulating snow continues across central Indiana, especially from the I-70 corridor and points north, becoming more widespread and growing in intensity yet again during the overnight.  The culprit?  The highlighted upper low which will “carry” accumulating snow east through the night into Wednesday…

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6:00p update

A major winter storm is underway and currently producing snowfall rates in excess of 1″ per hour across most of central Indiana.  We already have snowfall reports of 4-5″ coming in and those numbers will grow deeper and expand as we progress through the night.

This is a widespread winter storm and impacting a huge chunk of territory.  Here’s a look at the radar at 6:30, via Intellicast:

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Notice the moisture connection with the Gulf of Mexico.  Moisture-rich air continues to stream north into the cold air mass in place and resulting in extreme snowfall rates of 1-2″ per hour…these will continue through the evening before intensity improves late tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has had to issue a mesoscale discussion to account for the heavy snow ratios.  Additionally, don’t be shocked if you hear a rumble or two of thunder tonight in the heavier snow bands.

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As we move forward, the dry slot, common with a mature cyclone, and discussed here originally Sunday will move northeast and result in a break in the snow across the region towards the 11 o’clock hour from the southwest.

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That said, snow will “fill” back in across central Indiana early Wednesday morning and produce additional accumulations.

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Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/major-winter-storm-underway/

Feb 03

Here We Go Again…

Yet another winter storm is bearing down on the region and will promise a snowy time of things here Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

Surface low pressure will begin to organize over the lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday morning and move northeast…eventually into PA before a secondary low takes over off the Northeast coast Wednesday.  We like our track of the storm below.

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This will really be the first storm that’s tapped into Gulf of Mexico moisture since the major winter storm that pounded our area early last month.  Moisture will be plentiful with this system and, when combined with the cold air, will lead to significant snow accumulation for most of central Indiana, with significant ice accumulation expected downstate across southern sections of Indiana.

We think snow begins to develop across central Indiana as early as early to mid afternoon Tuesday, but the heaviest of the snow will fall Tuesday night into the wee morning hours Wednesday.  In fact, snowfall rates may approach 1″ per hour for a time Tuesday night, especially where the heavy snow bands set up.  Just exactly where do these heavy bands of snow develop?  It’s a very tough call, but thinking at this juncture would suggest mainly north of Indianapolis.  Additionally, latest data suggests a thundersnow report or two may occur tomorrow night within the heavy snow bands.  Snow will begin to taper from west to east Wednesday morning, but the open country will have to deal with some blowing and drifting through the day Wednesday as the low departs northeast.  We’ll then enjoy a dry and cold couple of days as arctic high pressure builds in before our next winter storm develops for the weekend…

We forecast widespread 4-8″ (localized 8″+ totals possible within convective heavy snow bands) of snow to accumulate by the time all is said and done across central Indiana and our call right now is for the greatest chance of those 8″ reports to fall within the highlighted zone below.

HVY Snow Totals 020414:020514

Quick Bullet Point Thoughts:

  • Snow develops towards 3-4pm Tuesday.
  • Heaviest snow falls Tuesday night into the wee morning hours Wednesday.
  • 4-8″ of snowfall expected across central Indiana, with heaviest totals from Indy’s northern suburbs and points north.  Locally heavier totals can be expected within the heavier convective snow bands.
  • Significant ice accumulation of 0.25″, or greater, possible down state
  • Placement of embedded heavy snow bands will have to be monitored closely Tuesday night and may be accompanied by thunder and lightning.
  • Snow begins to diminish Wednesday morning, but blowing and drifting continues through the day.

The dry slot, originally mentioned here Sunday, will likely impact southern and south-central Indiana late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and will essentially shut off the accumulating snow threat south of I-70 during the wee morning hours Wednesday with some light freezing rain and/ or freezing drizzle glazing over the snow that falls.  Meanwhile, accumulating snow will begin to taper Wednesday morning north of I-70.  The latest high resolution NAM simulated radar, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics, shows this well.

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Feb 03

Tracking Two Winter Storms This Week

Initial thoughts from our first of two winter storms this week can be found below.  We’ll fine tune that forecast this evening, but feel good about our initial call.

A second winter storm is brewing for the late week and weekend period.  While we still have details to sort out with this storm, thinking would take a deepening surface low out of the Deep South into Ohio for the weekend.  This would, once again, place central Indiana in the favored zone for heavy snow.  Additionally, with a deepening surface low into Ohio, wind would be of concern with considerable to severe blowing and drifting.  It’s still very early in the game and we have time to watch things unfold, but we wanted to go ahead and make sure you put a mental note on the Friday-Sunday period, as well….

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tracking-two-winter-storms-this-week/