Category: Forecast Discussion

Long Range Report: Warm Open To Meteorological Spring; MJO And NAO Impacts Longer Term…

Updated 02.29.24 @ 5:13a

Tomorrow we’ll welcome in meteorological spring and the first couple weeks of March appear to continue the unseasonably warm trend. At times, additional warm records will likely fall.

A ‘mean’ eastern ridge (and strong western trough) will dominate the 1st half of March.
Well above average temperatures are expected through the 1st half of March.

This is strongly correlated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation highly amplified in the classic warm phases this time of year. (You can absolutely say goodbye to any sort of sustained cold prospects this time of year with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and especially 6). Now, down the road, we’ll want to watch and see if we can maintain this amplitude and rumble into the transitional colder Phase 7 before a potential opportunity to see cold grow more impressive should we *finally get into Phase 8 late month. Remember that we made an attempt at that back in mid-February before things instead collapsed into the neutral phase. Moral of the story for folks longing for one more bout of sustained cold prior to the warmer months ahead, “don’t hold your breath.” The trend certainly isn’t your friend.

Back to the present. No matter what the teleconnections say, an amplified MJO will always win out. And the current MJO forecast to roll through the phases listed above screams that our recent warm times will “keep on keepin’ on” as we navigate the 1st half of March.

MJO forecast through March 13th

The Phase 5 and Phase 6 composite analogs at 500mb (upper air pattern) for an El Niño March:

What this should also result in is an active first half of the month, including above normal rainfall and likely at least another early season strong to severe weather event before we get to mid month.

It’s a classic pattern that should feature low pressure systems ejecting out of the Southwest and South-central into the Plains and western Great Lakes region. That puts our neck of the woods on the warm/ wet (and at times stormy) side of the equation.

As we move into late-March and early April, we’ll have our eyes focused on the MJO and whether or not we can, indeed, get into those traditionally colder phases. Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/long-range-report-warm-open-to-meteorological-spring-mjo-and-nao-impacts-longer-term/

VIDEO: Sharply Colder Today Before A Quick Warm-Up; No Let Up To The Warm Pattern Down The Road…

Updated 02.28.24 @ 7:44a Today will serve as a reminder we are still in winter, after all, but another quick warm-up will get underway as we head through the weekend…

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VIDEO: Severe Weather Expected This Evening And Overnight; Sharply Colder Wednesday…

Updated 02.27.24 @ 5:58a An unseasonably warm and quiet daytime will take a stormy turn tonight. All modes of severe weather are in play late evening and into the overnight,…

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Monday Evening Thoughts On Storm Potential Tonight – Wednesday…

Updated 02.26.24 @ 5:51p

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the ‘marginal’ risk area within their Day 1 Outlook. This is for the potential of isolated strong cells developing later this evening and through the overnight (large hail being the biggest concern from any stronger cell that pops), but this shouldn’t be a widespread severe weather event by any stretch of the imagination.

The Day 2 Outlook remains largely unchanged from this morning across our immediate area.

Concern remains that all modes of severe weather will be realized across northern IL and northern IN Tuesday evening into the overnight.

We want to reiterate that the majority of the daytime should be void of any sort of significant rain or storms across the state. It’s after 7p, and more so after 9p, that we expect discrete cells to initialize and roll across northern IN. These discrete cells will be capable of rotating (TOR potential remains), but also have the potential of damaging winds and large hail. The most widespread of evening convection should be focused north of the city, itself, but we’ll keep a close eye on tonight’s and Tuesday morning’s data.

We continue to believe a more pronounced squall line will march east across the state, including central and southern Indiana, during the overnight and predawn hours and it’s with this line that an elevated damaging wind threat will be hoisted. Timing this threat out features the 2a to 5a Wednesday time block from west to east. We recommend reviewing your severe weather safety plan and have a means of receiving the latest warning information should they be issued.

Showers and embedded thunder will remain widespread through the early morning hours before pushing off to our east by mid morning. By this time, we’ll be trending sharply colder (temperatures will fall off the cliff Wednesday morning), drier, but very windy.

Predawn highs around 60° Wednesday will be shaved by 30° by late morning along with a biting northwesterly wind gusting 30-40 MPH.

High pressure will deliver a colder, but sunny Thursday before a weak system delivers a return of clouds and light (insignificant) showers to close the work week.

The weekend continues to look mighty nice, including a quick rebound in the mercury and another taste of spring ahead of our next approaching storm early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-evening-thoughts-on-tonight-wednesday/

VIDEO: Forecasting Record Warmth Today; Timing Out Rounds Of Storms Late Tonight – Wednesday AM…

Updated 02.26.24 @ 7:30a We’ll go from “chamber of commerce” type weather to open the work week, including pushing for a record high later this afternoon, to rounds of storms…

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