May 07
Updated 05.07.23 @8:25p
High resolution guidance continues to grow more and more bullish on another round of rain and thunder Monday morning. Localized heavy rain and vivid lightning is a good bet with this storm cluster. All in all it’s another case of the “messy” specific details regarding placement/ timing of storm clusters in the immediate term, in what’s otherwise been a nice job from global guidance 7-10 days ago.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/07/video-muggy-and-stormy-open-to-the-work-week-cooler-pattern-returns-late-month/
May 06
Updated 05.06.23 @ 7:11a
A new pattern is emerging (at least for the time being) and will offer up a much more typical feel by May standards, along with periods of storms as we navigate the early portion of the new week.
The good news is that our Saturday continues to look dry.
Attention will shift off to our west and northwest later this evening for the potential of local overnight rumbles on into Sunday morning. This will be the onset of more of an unsettled pattern, including multiple storm complexes to track at times through Tuesday.
Severe weather parameters certainly aren’t “off the charts” but there will be enough energy and moisture to signal a localized damaging wind threat Sunday and Monday with any storm cluster(s) that flare up.
Rainfall amounts won’t be uniform but localized 1”+ amounts can be expected with more of a general 0.50” to 1” area-wide rain in the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe.
Drier air and a brief ridge of high pressure will eliminate rain and storm chances Wednesday through Friday.
Unfortunately, as it looks now, moisture levels will rise significantly heading into Mother’s Day weekend and a return of unsettled weather will follow during this time period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/06/now-this-is-more-like-it-4/
May 05
Updated 05.05.23 @ 5:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/05/humidity-climbs-and-storms-follow-early-week-more-reason-to-buy-into-the-cooler-late-month-trends/
May 04
Updated 05.04.23 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/04/video-long-range-update-and-looking-at-short-term-rain-storm-chances/
May 03
Updated 05.03.23 @ 7:28a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/03/video-keeping-close-eye-on-northern-extent-of-rain-friday-night-otherwise-a-nice-weekend-on-deck/
May 02
Updated 05.02.23 @ 7:58a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/02/video-big-weekend-improvements/
May 01
Updated 05.01.23 @ 7:39a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/05/01/video-its-not-about-how-you-start-but-how-you-finish/
Apr 30
Updated 04.30.23 @ 10:04a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/30/video-cold-raw-open-to-may-mid-month-pattern-change-on-the-horizon/
Apr 29
Updated 04.29.23 @ 8:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/29/video-unsettled-and-chilly-pattern-midweek-frost/
Apr 28
Updated 04.28.23 @ 2:33a
While we remain bullish on a warmer response in the Week 2-3 time period, the longevity of any sort of “warm-up” is the point we’re trying to drive home. The MJO is still forecast to amplify into Phase 6 just past May 10th. As a result, our stubborn call remains on modeling being “forced” to correct warmer during this time.
As it is, we’re in a camp of our own with that call based off Thursday’s long range update. Note both the new European Weeklies and JMA Weeklies show the eastern trough remaining.
At the very least, it’s an interesting test case on our hands that we’ll be able to see play out in real time.
Even if we do see the Week 2-3 warm up, it’s likely to be short-lived as the MJO continues to rumble into cooler phases and the teleconnections (namely the EPO and NAO) tag-team neutral to negative through the bulk of May and into early June.
The end result after any sort of warmer response during the aforementioned time period is likely for at least a slightly cooler pattern to return compared to average. The relatively drier pattern will also trend wetter late May into early June.
At the end of the day, we still see a warmer surge taking hold, locally, between Weeks 2-3. However cooler and wetter conditions likely settle back in as we navigate the back half of May and into early June at least.
Is this a hint of the times as summer matures? Not out of the question this year as we flip the page to Nino conditions…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/04/28/lr-update-may-pattern-evolution-and-early-look-at-june/