Category Archives: Forecast Discussion

Wet Close To 2018…

IND has already recorded over half an inch in the rain gauge this morning and there’s more where that came from between now and tonight. Steady rain will be replaced with scattered downpours late morning to around the lunchtime hour before widespread rain and embedded thunder returns early to mid afternoon.  Most can expect to tack on an additional half inch to inch of rain today and the latest HRRR sees this as well.

We’re also still monitoring the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms across southern portions of the state.  The Storm Prediction Center now includes far southern Indiana in a Slight Risk for severe weather today.  The primary concerns remain strong, damaging winds with a line of thunderstorms that may develop between 2p and 4p.  If your travels take you south towards Louisville today remain weather-aware.

Temperatures will run 25° to 30° colder New Year’s Day and a couple of scattered snow showers may fly- especially across the favored snowbelt areas to our north.

Have a happy and safe New Year’s Eve, friends!

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, New Year's Eve/ Day, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm

Heavy Rain (And Thunder Downstate) Arrives For New Year’s Eve…

We’re enjoying pleasant conditions this afternoon with filtered sunshine and temperatures that should top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s later on.  Enjoy it, as a big rain event gets underway for New Year’s Eve.

This afternoon’s visible satellite shows sunshine dominating across the northern half of #INwx.

Clouds will increase tonight and rain won’t be too far behind.  We think wet weather builds into central Indiana before sunrise Monday (likely between 4a to 6a) and periods of heavy rain are still expected late morning into the afternoon and evening hours.

Rain will arrive into the city itself between 4a and 5a Monday. 

We continue to monitor the prospects of a skinny line of strong thunderstorms that may impact southern Indiana Monday afternoon and evening.  If your travels take you south to Louisville for NYE plans, this is something to monitor.  Widespread severe weather isn’t expected, but strong winds are possible if this line materializes.

Timing out prospects for a skinny line of storms to impact southern #INwx Monday afternoon. Best idea as of now will come between 2p and 4p.

This storm system will have a true tropical connection.  Precipitable water values will be quite “juicy” for late December and plenty capable of producing locally heavy totals.  Widespread 1″ to 1.5″ can be expected, but a few area rain gauges will likely see higher amounts.

Colder air will whip in here late tomorrow night and help lingering moisture fall as scattered snow showers New Year’s Day.  More later on the potential of wintry “mischief” later in the week…

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, New Year's Eve/ Day, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms

Looking at the Holiday Week and Ahead to January…

Tomorrow will be a rather uneventful weather day across central Indiana, but things will begin to change as we head into Thursday.

An area of low pressure will track out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes by Friday. The end result will be increasing coverage of showers Thursday afternoon and perhaps even a rumble of thunder Thursday evening.

Most of the concentrated rain should come to an end around dark Thursday. By that time we forecast a general 1/2″ to 1″ to fall in area rain gauges.

More seasonable air will blow in here behind the storm system and we’ll have to keep an eye on energy “attacking” from behind over the weekend. With colder weather in place, snow is possible next weekend.

Looking ahead, a combination of ingredients appears to be coming together to create a rather significant transition in the pattern as we head into January. Note the developing positive PNA…

This will result in more sustained below normal temperatures making a return early January to our neck of the woods…

Additionally, it also appears an active storm track will continue. While impossible to say this far in advance, prospects for above average snowfall (average is 8.6″) appear likely through the month of January.

No Comments 10-day, Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, PNA, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles