Updated 07.08.23 @ 8:35a
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Category: Forecast Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/08/soggy-saturday-morning-long-range-pattern-update/
Jul 08
Wet, Stormy Open To The Weekend Before 2nd Half Improvements…
Updated 07.08.23 @ 6:28a
There’s no need for an alarm clock this morning, friends. A widespread complex of rain and storms continues to push into central Indiana at 6:30a.
We’ll have to deal with a few hours of rain and thunder before things begin to dry out mid and late morning (west to east). Sunshine should also slowly work back into the picture enough to help destabilize things just enough for a second (less widespread) round of showers and storms by this evening. These will likely initiate around the city with more widespread coverage south.
We’ll then all enjoy a greatly improved weather pattern by tonight continuing into Sunday. Lower humidity and pleasantly warm temperatures will make up a beautiful 2nd half of the weekend.
More on the long range pattern a bit later today in our client video discussion.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/08/wet-stormy-open-to-the-weekend-before-2nd-half-improvements/
Jul 07
VIDEO: Watching Saturday Storm Threat; Next Week Opens Nice Before Turning Unsettled Mid And Late Week…
Updated 07.07.23 @ 7:31a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/07/video-watching-saturday-storm-threat-next-week-opens-nice-before-turning-unsettled-mid-and-late-week/
Jul 06
VIDEO: Pleasant Close To The Work Week; Recent Wet Pattern Shift Looks To Hold Through July…
Updated 07.06.23 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/06/video-pleasant-close-to-the-work-week-recent-wet-pattern-shift-looks-to-hold-through-july/
Jul 05
VIDEO: Storms Tonight Give Way To Briefly Drier Air To Close The Short Work Week; Back To Unsettled This Weekend…
Updated 07.05.23 @ 8:15p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/05/video-storms-tonight-give-way-to-briefly-drier-air-to-close-the-short-work-week-back-to-unsettled-this-weekend/
Jul 04
Wednesday Evening Rumbles…
Updated 07.04.23 @ 10:53p
Most of our hump day should feature quiet conditions. A couple renegade storms will likely fire up during the mid to late afternoon hours. These will be ahead of a more organized line of storms impacting Illinois. That particular line will rumble east into the state towards 10p to 11p and likely reach the city, itself, around midnight.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes central Indiana in a ‘marginal’ risk of severe weather Wednesday. Damaging straight line winds are of biggest concern with this line.
While we’ll need to monitor radar trends and overall timing, as of this evening, it doesn’t appear that this will be a widespread severe weather maker (available energy and a late evening arrival argue against this being a significant event).
On the road early tomorrow morning but will be sure to have a fresh video update posted Wednesday evening with updates on the above and a look ahead to the next couple weeks.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/04/wednesday-evening-rumbles/
Jul 04
Brief Break In The Pattern Gives Us Time To Look Ahead To The Remainder Of Met. Summer; Open To Autumn…
Updated 07.04.23 @ 6:14a
There’s something about the 4th of July that signals a shift within. It’s been this way for me since back in the high school days. Back then, the following week meant 2-a-days were beginning as a new football season was only a few weeks away. Fast forward to today, and I understand some of the big box retailers are preparing to display their fall and Halloween decor over the next couple weeks. SEC Media Days, the unofficial “official” start of the college football season gets rolling in Nashville on July 17th. Heck, before you know it, we’ll be producing our annual winter outlook.
Okay, back to present.
As the Nino continues to mature, we believe the rest of meteorological summer (through end of month August) continues to keep any significant or long lasting heat away from our neck of the woods. In addition, the dry stretch that typically develops at some point each and every summer is also behind us. Simply put, the next 6-7 weeks appear to run near normal from a temperature standpoint and slightly above to above normal from a precipitation perspective. Overall, I prefer to lean on the latest JMA monthly product.
July
Temperatures
Precipitation
August
Temperatures
Precipitation
As we look ahead to autumn, the early call is for a warmer than normal open to fall as a whole. Certainly fits the bill with recent autumn trends…
We note both the JMA and latest European Seasonal product going towards this mild look. More on the entire fall seasonal outlook over the next few weeks.
From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a blessed Independence Day! A fresh batch of storms arrive later Wednesday and our short-term update later tonight will handle the latest look there.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/04/brief-break-in-the-pattern-gives-us-time-to-look-ahead-to-the-remainder-of-met-summer-open-to-autumn/
Jul 03
Timing Certainly Is On Our Side…
Updated 07.03.23 @ 7:34a
For most, the long holiday weekend continues on for another couple days. Thankfully, after round upon round of rain and storms, a drier trend will develop today and for Independence Day, itself. While we can’t totally rule out a passing shower today (case in point north and northeast of the city this morning), coverage and intensity of precipitation the next 48 hours will be significantly reduced. I think any sort of rain Tuesday will be very hard to come by (“isolated” coverage at best).
A new frontal boundary will push into the state Wednesday and the Storm Prediction Center has already included a Slight Risk of severe weather by Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
In addition to a damaging wind threat, localized flash flooding is possible as the cold front pushes through the region.
Thereafter, yet again, “timing” will be on our side as a much drier airmass filters into the region just in time for the weekend. Both Friday and Saturday appear dry and comfortable with significantly lower humidity.
A renewed wet, stormy pattern kicks off for the 2nd half of the weekend into next week. Buckle up.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/03/timing-certainly-is-on-our-side/
Jul 02
VIDEO: Another Round Of Storms This Afternoon/ Evening Then We Dry Things Out For The Holiday Itself…
Updated 07.02.23 @ 8:15a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/02/video-another-round-of-storms-this-afternoon-evening-then-we-dry-things-out-for-the-holiday-itself/
Jul 01
VIDEO: Busy Weather Pattern Continues; Multiple Rounds Of Weekend Storms, Including Severe Threat…
Updated 07.01.23 @ 9a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/01/video-busy-weather-pattern-continues-multiple-rounds-of-weekend-storms-including-severe-threat/