12/29/20 Weather Bulletin: One More Dry Day Ahead Of An Extended Period Of Unsettled Conditions…

Enjoy The Sun While You Can…Low clouds will slowly but surely clear out of here during the overnight and early Tuesday morning. This will allow for lows to go “deep” into the 20s for most central Indiana communities Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, just as soon as skies clear, our next storm is brewing off to the west.

Clouds will increase Tuesday evening- eventually giving way to rain Wednesday. This is “part 1” of the multi-faceted storm system that’s taking aim on the region as we close out 2020. Rain will overspread the state early Wednesday (pre-dawn NW, around sunrise for immediate central IN, and early-mid afternoon across SE parts of the state). Eventually the front will settle south, placing us in the colder zone Wednesday night and Thursday morning. With the colder air will also come a period of drier conditions. By this point low pressure will begin to organize along the NW Gulf Coast before lifting north. As this takes place, the same frontal boundary that settles south of our region will lift back north as a warm front New Year’s Day. Rain (potentially heavy at times) will accompany this event, continuing into early Saturday. (The bulk of our 7-day forecast rainfall amounts will fall New Year’s Day, itself). Overall, model consensus is warmer today than the past couple of days, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.

Colder, drier air will filter back into the region next weekend…

Bill McMillan December 28, 2020 No Comments Client, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, New Year's Eve/ Day, Rain

12/28/20 Weather Bulletin: Dry, Chilly Weather Monday-Tuesday; Questions Abound With Our NYE Storm…

Pre-Dawn High; Sunshine Returns…Our high temperature Monday will take place right after midnight for most of central Indiana. Daytime temperatures will remain steady in the low-mid 30s for most of the region as clouds slowly give way to a return of the sunshine. This is all thanks to a cold front that slipped southeast across the state last night. (Same boundary that helped generate some light showers across the region Sunday evening).

High pressure will continue to dominate our area Tuesday, but “trouble” lurks off to the west. Clouds will begin to increase during the 2nd half of the day and a few light showers (potentially mixed with snow across northern parts of the state) will arrive on the scene late in the evening as a warm front lifts north.

Midweek will feature unsettled weather conditions, but there are more questions than answers currently and fine tuning will take place over the next 24-48 hours. Solutions currently range from mild/ wet to a mixed bag, including ice and snow. In short, stay tuned… The one constant that remains is that this will be a more significant storm for central and western portions of the OHV than our Christmas Eve event. That said, details pertaining to precipitation type/ amounts are anyone’s guess from this point.

Chilly, dry conditions will return by the weekend.

Bill McMillan December 27, 2020 No Comments Client, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, New Year's Eve/ Day, Rain, snow, Wintry Mix

A Word On Our New Year’s Eve Storm…

There will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth in the days ahead over the operational model changes that are sure to come with our New Year’s Eve storm. Knowing what’s to come with the operational guidance, let’s take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Below, I’ve included a couple of images of the 500mb pattern (upper level air pattern) from the GFS ensemble. The first image is dug out from the archives and features our Christmas Eve storm. The second image is the storm in front of us for New Year’s Eve.

There are several differences, but the most notable one to us is the strength and orientation of the blocking high to our northeast. Secondly, the sharp wave break (deep trough) is not part of our NYE storm like it was Christmas Eve. While there are other ingredients in the pot to stir, these are two significant differences that lead us to believe the upcoming NYE storm will be a big-hitter for the Mid West and portions of the western OHV, as opposed to the more progressive event east of here Christmas Eve. The pattern will allow a couple of features to slow down and strengthen (amount to be determined, but perhaps significantly so) to create a more “revved up,” western storm to close out the year.

From this distance, Indianapolis and central Indiana is at least in the game for wintry fun NYE, but there will be much fine tuning ahead.

More later today! Enjoy your Sunday!

Friendly reminder I am traveling this week to see family and loved ones. Posts will come daily, but our regular schedule will be off because of this. Merry Christmas!

Bill McMillan December 27, 2020 No Comments Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, New Year's Eve/ Day

VIDEO: Tricky System Dialed Up To Close Out The Year…

We’re tracking a complex storm system to close out the year. Unlike it’s predecessor, I think central and western portions of the OHV are at an increased risk of wintry…

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Bill McMillan December 26, 2020 No Comments Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Client, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, High-latitude Blocking, New Year's Eve/ Day, Rain, snow, Weather Videos

VIDEO: Walking Through The Pattern To Close Out The Year And Open Up 2021…

From our home to yours, we wish you a very merry Christmas and a joyous holiday season!