Nov 23
Updated 11.23.23 @8:21a Here’s wishing you and your family a blessed and very happy Thanksgiving holiday. We’re so incredibly thankful for your support- and more importantly friendship over the years.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/23/giving-thanks-and-talking-a-little-snow/
Nov 22
Updated 11.22.23 @ 3:03p
We’ve been keying in for several days on the energy that will lead to a Thanksgiving and Black Friday Winter Storm for the Rockies, and eventually a swath of accumulating snow into the Plains over the holiday weekend. To no surprise, modeling continues to trend more organized with this energy as it moves across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley this weekend. The time we’re monitoring for potential wintry impacts across central Indiana come early Sunday morning, continuing into the afternoon.
As bullish as we’ve been on this trending towards a more substantial system, capable of producing snow, locally, we remain confident that this won’t be some sort of significant winter storm. Why? Pattern recognition on both fronts. That said, the potential of a light snow accumulation across central Indiana Sunday is very much alive and kicking as of this evening. Know that we’ll be here right through the holiday and the weekend tracking the latest and will continue to keep you posted moving forward.
Regardless if we receive snow or not, the coldest air so far this season is on deck early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/22/models-trend-more-organized/
Nov 22
Updated 11.22.23 @ 7:48a A dry (but at times breezy) airmass will continue settling overhead just in time for our Thanksgiving holiday. High pressure will keep us quiet until Sunday.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/22/video-dry-weather-returns-just-in-time-for-thanksgiving-cold-pattern-settles-in-to-close-november-and-open-december/
Nov 21
Updated 11.21.23 @ 7:30p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/21/evening-video-update-the-trend-is-your-friend-winter-fans/
Nov 21
Updated 11.21.23 @ 7:24a A cold front will work through the region this morning. We’ll notice a wind shift to the northwest and colder air building into central Indiana through…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/21/video-calming-things-down-just-in-time/
Nov 20
Updated 11.20.23 @ 5:30p
I. The weather pattern will turn progressively colder as we move through the Thanksgiving holiday. This isn’t anything earth-shattering by any stretch, but temperatures running 4° to 8° below normal is pretty stout. There’s also still the potential of an early season arctic “jab” prior to us getting out of the first 3-5 days of December, but that likely comes after this weekend- if at all.
As a whole, it’s a dry pattern that will accompany the chill, but we will want to continue keeping an eye on energy that will eject off the Rockies over the weekend. At times models can underplay these features only to have to correct stronger as we grow closer to the potential event. Will that be the case this time? Impossible to say from this distance- just something we’ll continue to monitor with such a busy travel period. As it is today, modeling wants to “string” the energy out which would essentially be a light or non-event.
II. While the pattern drivers all are aligned for a cold open (first few days) of December, there’s reason to believe a period of milder than normal air will take foot just after- say sometime between 12/5 and 12/8, or so. That said, we’re in a bit of a fork in the road so to speak.
The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is going to pop positive at least for a period of time prior to mid-December. This strongly argues for a relaxation of the cold regime that we’ll endure to open the month. Guidance differs on the handling of the MJO, however. Should the American guidance be correct in taking things into Phase 4, when combined with what we see transpiring with the EPO, then we’re off to the races for at least a 7-10 day period of much warmer than normal temperatures. That said, European guidance collapses the MJO into the “null” phase and even hints at things emerging again in the colder phases come mid December. While we still have time to sort through this “mess,” the idea here is that the cold open to the month will moderate to slightly to moderately above normal for a 7-10 day period leading us into mid-month. Thereafter, I’m becoming increasingly bullish for a renewed cold pattern developing towards the Christmas and New Years holidays…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/20/dinnertime-rambles-talking-thanksgiving-weekend-and-early-december/
Nov 20
Updated 11.20.23 @ 7:24a Showers this afternoon will give way to a steadier and heavier axis of rain overnight and into the predawn hours Tuesday. We continue to believe a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/20/video-timing-out-weather-conditions-for-the-all-important-thanksgiving-week-cold-pattern-evolves/
Nov 19
Updated 11.19.23 @ 9:13a If you still need to put up those Christmas lights and other holiday decor, take our advice and use today to get that done. An area…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/19/video-getting-the-yuck-out-of-the-way-ahead-of-thanksgiving-cold-close-to-november-and-open-to-december/
Nov 18
Updated 11.18.23 @ 10:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/18/video-pre-thanksgiving-day-storm-and-a-cold-close-to-november/
Nov 17
Updated 11.17.23 @ 11a
The stars are all aligning to drive a significant shift in the overall regime towards one that should yield cooler (and, at times, colder) than normal temperatures as we navigate the back half of the month.
First, we have the MJO. Note how we’re set to slide into Phases 1 and 2 between now and end of the month.
These are progressively cold phases this time of year. Phase 1 has residual warmth across the Northeast (more seasonable here on the home front) before Phase 2 becomes overwhelmingly cold.
We then have the combo of the negative EPO and positive PNA. Both cold signals for our neck of the woods.
It’s no wonder model guidance is jumping on the persistent eastern trough to close out the month.
At some point in the 8-12 day period, I’d anticipate a true dislodge of true early season arctic air to get involved in the pattern. Think lows into the upper 10s, lower 20s and highs in the 30s. Still far too early to get specific with snow chances, but they will come before month’s end.
Stay tuned…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/17/more-on-the-cold-close-to-november/