Dec 02
Updated 12.02.23 @ 7:42a We’re going to be socked in with considerable cloudiness this weekend, but these clouds will have more bark than bite. A few showers will scoot through…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/02/video-nickle-and-diming-our-way-into-the-new-work-week-temperatures-climb-late-next-week/
Dec 01
Updated 12.01.23 @ 7:44a
Though far from a blowtorch, the pattern over the next couple weeks (1st half of December) will feature milder than normal temperatures.
The pattern drivers, starting first and foremost with the MJO (more on the impacts late December in a moment), suggest milder than normal times should hold through the first half of December overall.
The EPO is also forecast predominantly positive with an erratic PNA pattern. Bottom line, all combined, this should promote an overall mild open to the month with a lack of any sort of significant winter weather threats.
The period opens wet and finishes (mid-month) that way with dryness in between.
Focusing in more on the MJO helps illustrate the story we’re telling not only over the next couple weeks, but into early 2024.
We’re currently in the warmest phases of the MJO this time of year (3, 4, and 5 in particular), but things start to change once to Phase 6 and beyond.
Many times, cold, arctic air begins to build on our side of the pole in Phase 6 and then busts loose in Phases 7 and 8. I think that’s on the table for us this year given where it appears the MJO wants to head and this is backed by long range teleconnection charts (namely the EPO and PNA) seemingly wanting to also head into the traditional colder phases, respectively.
This image will show the progression and corresponding upper level pattern nicely.
To close, while the first half of the month doesn’t appear to be overly kind to winter weather enthusiasts, it continues to look like the combination of the MJO, EPO, and PNA are aligning in a manner that will deliver more of a wholesale pattern change to colder than normal times past mid month and especially after the 20th. By that timeframe, we’ll have to start monitoring storm systems to potentially have a more wintry theme to them.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/12/01/lr-update-things-progressing-as-planned-cold-pattern-looming-for-the-holidays-and-into-early-24/
Nov 30
Updated 11.30.23 @ 7:44a Clouds will increase through the afternoon and give way to light rain by evening. That rain will grow more widespread and heavier in nature as we…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/30/video-wet-weather-returns-setting-the-stage-for-the-holiday-pattern/
Nov 29
Updated 11.29.23 @ 7:33a Our airmass will undergo quite the change over the next 24 hours. The early season taste of arctic air will be replaced with a milder (but…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/29/video-milder-but-wetter-shift-in-the-pattern-long-range-rumblings/
Nov 28
Updated 11.28.23 @7:16a
The coldest air of the season is greeting us out the door this morning, complete with snow flurries and wind chill values around zero. Safe to say that the heavy winter gear is needed today as highs struggle to crack 30° later on.
The upper pattern will transition to a milder (no blow torch by any means) and more active regime as we navigate the next 6-10 days. Most, if not all, storm systems will feature “wet vs. white” weather here over this particular time period.
Dry times return Wednesday only to give way to increasing clouds and widespread rain Thursday PM into Friday. The overall gloomy and damp pattern will prevail over the weekend and into early next week. Needless to say, enjoy whatever sunshine you can get later today and Wednesday.
It continues to look like the potential is there for more appreciable cold to get back involved with the pattern after mid-month and especially closer to the holidays.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/28/tuesday-morning-rambles-a-much-more-active-pattern-takes-foot/
Nov 27
Updated 11.27.23 @ 7:45a A true arctic air mass will settle over head today and lead to the coldest air of the season through Tuesday. Wind chills will fall to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/27/video-coldest-air-of-the-season-early-week-late-weeks-take-a-wet-turn/
Nov 26
Updated 11.26.23 @ 8:50a A wintry mix of rain and snow across central Indiana will fall as predominantly all snow across the northern 1/3 of the state where the best…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/26/video-wintry-mix-today-gives-way-to-the-coldest-air-so-far-this-season-to-open-the-new-work-week/
Nov 25
Updated 11.25.23 @ 9:33a
We’re waking up to cold (lows bottomed out in the middle 20s for most central Indiana neighborhoods) but dry conditions. While we’ll deal with more clouds today, dry conditions will hold today and tonight.
A weak system will move through the Ohio Valley Sunday with a wintry mix of wet snow and a cold rain across central Indiana, mostly rain downstate, and all snow across north-central and northern Indiana. Sunday will dawn dry but light precipitation will overspread the state from west to east through the mid morning hours. We don’t envision any sort of snow accumulation with the exception of far western central Indiana (dusting) northeast into the northern 1/3 of the state (1”-2” amounts on grassy and elevated surfaces). Generally speaking we think the accumulation potential is greatest from Rockville to Kokomo, and up to Fort Wayne. Light precipitation will end as a brief period of light snow Sunday night into Indianapolis but “light” is the key word and we don’t expect any accumulation concerns in the city, itself.
The coldest air so far this season blows into town as we open the work week. In fact, highs may struggle to reach freezing Tuesday, including morning lows into the 10s.
After Sunday, from a precipitation perspective, we’re talking about a very dry and quiet regime until we get to Friday. We’ll close the work week with a new storm system that will deliver a rainy Friday.
By this point, a transition to milder times will be underway so we don’t expect any sort of p-type challenges with this particular system.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/25/saturday-morning-rambles-a-bookend-forecast/
Nov 24
Updated 11.24.23 @ 8:32p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/24/long-range-update-interesting-times/
Nov 24
Updated 11.24.23 @ 7:50a Quiet, but colder (and blustery) weather will be with us for our Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. Our next weather maker arrives Sunday as the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/24/video-colder-air-flows-in-talking-sunday-snow-and-wintry-mix/