Jan 09
Updated 01.09.24 @ 5:06p To say there’s a lot going on right now with this weather pattern is an understatement of understatements. When this involves an area such as central…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/09/tuesday-evening-thoughts-on-the-weekend-and-beyond/
Jan 09
Updated 01.09.24 @ 7:53a Burning the midnight oil and having plenty of coffee on hand is the only way to navigate this pattern over the course of the next week.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/09/video-no-rest-for-the-weary-in-this-pattern-sub-zero-cold-settles-in-next-week/
Jan 08
Updated 01.08.24 @ 5:07p
We open this evening by taking a look at the latest ensemble charts, courtesy of today’s 12z European run. While there’s simply no way of being able to guarantee the upcoming 10-day’s worth of snow in one single back yard, long suffering folks of significant winter weather across not only central Indiana, but a widespread chunk of the Ohio Valley, couldn’t ask for a more classic pattern.
First, the textbook high latitude blocking kicks off the active storm track and then bitterly cold, arctic air pours into the eastern portion of the country. Signs of this potential blocking and storminess were starting to show themselves back in the latter part of the summer. We added a couple of those analogs into building this year’s winter outlook, including the potential of blocking. By the way, it was back in January of 2019 when Indianapolis last recorded our last double digit below zero temperature (11F below zero). I still like our chances of getting into that territory between the 14th and 18th. Wind chill values will likely be much colder.
Now, back to the present. We don’t have any changes regarding tonight and predawn Tuesday. A “thump” of heavy wet snow, mixed with sleet will make for messy travel north of I-70 towards 11p to midnight, continuing into the predawn. Thankfully this will arrive when most are off the roads, but just a heads up if you have late night travel, expect slick conditions starting around 11p, or so. In fact, some of the latest guidance suggests IND may be looking at 1″/ hr snow rates during the onset of this precipitation late evening. Northern ‘burbs, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to accumulate a quick 2″ to 3″ of wet snow and then some sleet before the transition to rain predawn. Even though we’ll all be dealing with a wind-whipped cold rain by daybreak, those living from the northern ‘burbs and points north should expect slushy and slick conditions for the AM commute.
After a brief milder surge and continued gusty winds during the daytime Tuesday, colder air will wrap back into the region allowing rain to transition to light snow tomorrow night, continuing into Wednesday morning. Additional slick spots are likely for the Wednesday morning commute, though late tonight and early Tuesday will likely be more problematic north.
Attention then shifts to our late week winter storm. While I have a hard time seeing the incredibly potent GFS solution verifying, I do like the stronger low pressure options (when compared to the flatter wave idea). – Always have to watch out for rapidly strengthening lows that like to cut up west of the mountains when you get the true arctic branch diving in with the expected trajectory currently modeled. Bottom line, at this distance we don’t see any need to deviate from the idea of rain to start, switching to a wind-whipped snow event, complete with plummeting temperatures and strong, potentially damaging, winds. I’d plan on additional travel impacts late week into the weekend.
The “big cold” follows behind this storm and then we’ll eye the opportunity for additional snow next week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/08/dinnertime-rambles-been-a-few-years-indeed/
Jan 08
Updated 01.08.24 @ 7:54a One storm after another will impact our region through the next couple weeks, eventually followed by bitterly cold, arctic air. We’ll have to take each storm…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/08/video-memorable-winter-pattern-the-next-couple-weeks-longer-range-musings/
Jan 07
Updated 01.07.24 @ 3:27p
While we’ll enjoy a quiet open to the work week, our next storm system is already organizing to our west and will deliver a heavy wind-whipped rain event, bookended by wintry precipitation Monday night into Wednesday morning.
Rainfall numbers will approach, if not exceed, the 1″ mark for most Indiana rain gauges with this system- the majority of which falls overnight Monday through the 1st half of Tuesday.
A wintry mix of wet snow and/ or sleet will likely be the predominant precipitation type along and north of I-70 at the onset of precipitation tomorrow night, but this doesn’t appear as if it’ll last long enough to create long lasting travel problems. In short, a quick transition to plain ole rain is anticipated after the onset of wintry precipitation. Safe to say, the Tuesday morning commute will be a messy one across the region.
Winds will also to around 40 MPH overnight into Tuesday morning as the area of low pressure lifts up to our west.
As colder air wraps back into the region Tuesday night, left over rain will transition to wet snow, continuing into Wednesday morning.
Just as soon as we finish with this system, attention will shift to a brewing winter storm as we close out the work week. While it’s impossible to get too specific on the all-important track of this system, it’s safe to say that this should be another potent area of low pressure, including more in the way of cold air to work with. With the arctic branch of the jet digging south, it won’t take much for this system to phase and actually be a more intense storm than its predecessor. That said, we have a long, long way to go before we can talk about where the heaviest swath of snow will set up in the Friday/ Saturday timeframe. It’ll be important to stay abreast of future forecast updates in the days ahead.
Bitterly cold, arctic air will be unleashed east through mid-January. Note the coast-to-coast arctic air taking up residence towards Day 10.
Our benchmarks have been set…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/07/updated-thinking-on-monday-night-tuesday-and-late-week/
Jan 07
Updated 01.07.24 @ 7:32a Light snow will slowly come to an end through the morning hours and we’ll have around 24 hours, or so, to catch our breath before the…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/07/video-what-a-pattern/
Jan 06
Updated 01.06.24 @ 7:57a An area-wide 1.5″ to 2.5″ (locally heavier) snow is greeting folks early this Saturday morning. It’s the type of wet snow that truly gives that winter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/06/video-light-snow-redevelops-tonight-active-wintry-pattern-only-ramping-up/
Jan 05
Updated 01.05.24 @ 5:13p
High latitude blocking will continue to mature over the upcoming 6-10 day period. This will force a very stormy pattern underneath (across the Lower 48). After the light snow late tonight and Saturday morning (primarily grassy and elevated surfaces), we’re tracking 3 additional storms over this particular time period and each of these will deal out their own respective challenges that we’ll have to hone in on as the system(s) draws closer. Our daily posts and Client videos will handle those specifics.
Storm dates:
While we’re not looking at anything particularly noteworthy (in terms of relative to average) in the cold department over the next week, this begins to change by the 8-10 day period. Admittedly it’s been challenging trying to time when the arctic air sloshes east in this type pattern, but it’s becoming increasingly apparent that this should take place around mid-month. Note the cross polar flow developing towards the 10-15 day period, per this afternoon’s European ensemble update.
Just how cold are we talking? Subzero lows and highs around 10°F without a snowpack. Should we have a snowpack down by this time then the threat of a double-digit below zero low and highs in the single digits is on the table. The target date for this cold comes between the 14th and 18th. Wind chills will obviously be much colder.
The plot continues to thicken…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/05/the-arctic-hounds-lurk/
Jan 05
Updated 01.05.24 @ 6:16a This weekend kicks off quite the busy stretch of weather around these parts as the first of 4 storm systems delivers an area-wide accumulating wet snow…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/05/video-tracking-4-storms-over-the-upcoming-10-day-period/
Jan 04
Updated 01.04.24 @ 5:56p
An impressive high latitude blocking pattern is forecast to establish itself over the upcoming week to 10 days. Should this come to fruition as modeled, this will be one of the more textbook winter blocks we’ve seen in quite some time. While it doesn’t mean it “has” to get cold immediately, it certainly does immediately kickstart a very active and stormy regime. Storms will come at us almost in an every other day type fashion. Here’s the idea on the initial 3 storms forecast to impact central Indiana between now and this time next week.
I. Late Friday night and Saturday: It continues to look like a surface low will move along the north-central Gulf Coast with a trough of low pressure extending north into the lower Ohio Valley. Eventually, the surface low will make a move up the eastern seaboard, leading to heavy snow and mixed precipitation for portions of the big cities. Back here on the home front, we expect snow to overspread central Indiana from south to north late Friday evening (likely reaching the city, itself, between 11p and midnight). Periods of snow will likely continue until around sunrise and then diminish from southwest to northeast. By this point, a general area-wide 1″ to 2″ of wet snow is expected to fall. Since most, if not all, of this snow will fall when it’s dark, some light accumulation is now expected on area roadways. If you have travel plans overnight or early Saturday morning, allow extra time to safely reach your destination.
[– Snow removal Clients, salting and plowing will be likely late Friday night into early Saturday morning, prior to sunrise.]
Additional upper level energy will rotate across the central Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning, allowing for a renewed area of light precipitation to blossom. Most of this should fall as wet snow along and north of the I-70 corridor with mixed rain and snow south. An additional wet coating of snow is possible during this timeframe.
II. Monday night and Tuesday: This will be a significantly stronger storm system, capable of much heavier precipitation and high winds.
After a calm daytime Monday, precipitation should overspread the region from southwest to northeast after dark, likely reaching the I-70 corridor towards 8p to 10p. While we still have to hone in on the specific track of the surface low, there aren’t any big changes from the idea posted this morning. Heavy wet snow or mixed precipitation is likely at the onset across central Indiana before a transition to plain ole rain along and south of the I-70 corridor during the daytime Tuesday. (The timing of the arrival of precipitation coming during the late evening/ overnight is worrisome for winter weather impacts, even in the face of warm air advection/ marginal temperatures).
Further south, this should be an all rain event on the front end. The duration of mixed precipitation/ snow will have a big impact on central IN accumulation potential. Further north, an eventual change to a brief period of rain is also likely, but we think there will be heavy accumulation of snow (WSW criteria) before this takes place across the northern 1/3 of the state. This initial precipitation zone is at least a good starting point, but expect some additional changes as we go through the next day or two.
Notes/ Asides: Liquid equivalent precipitation should reach 1″ to 2″ across all of the state with system #2 and wind gusts to 40 MPH + will be a good bet. As colder air rushes in on the backside of the storm look for a period of wind-whipped light snow area-wide Wednesday morning.
III. Mid/ late next week: An additional strong storm is likely to develop along the front range during this time before tracking east northeast along a pressing arctic boundary. We’re heading into the type of pattern that’s conducive for quick deepening (strengthening) of the respective surface lows and don’t see any reason this won’t be the case yet again around this time next week. – Obviously, it’s far too early to try and get too cute with detailed specifics with system #3, but it’s worth keeping an eye on as we progress through the next several days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/04/busy-busy-pattern-on-deck/