Category: Forecast Discussion

Nov 01

Saturday Forecast: Chilly Weekend; Eyeing Another Significant Storm…

Updated 11.01.13 @ 10:53p

Zionsville, IN After a day filled with heavy rain and damaging winds, we closed the week out with chilly, but pleasant weather conditions.  We’ll enjoy a chilly weekend ahead and we’re eyeing another significant storm system that promises to have a renewed threat of heavy rain, severe weather, and a big temperature drop next week.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSaturday: Mostly cloudy; Passing shower (0.05) 42/ 50

Reinforcing chilly air will blow into the state Saturday.  This will be accompanied by mostly cloudy skies, blustery northwest winds, and the threat of a passing light shower or sprinkles.  Grab the coat or jacket before heading out to get those Christmas lights put up or take care of those outdoor chores.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 33/ 51

We’ll wrap up the weekend with dry and chilly weather.  Plenty of sunshine will team up with cool, crisp fall air to present a beautiful close to the weekend.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 35/ 57

Partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures will greet folks on the way back to school and work.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Increasing clouds; developing nighttime showers (0.10) 48/ 60

We’ll eye our next storm system for a mid week arrival. Tuesday should start sunny, but mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase followed by developing nighttime showers as warmer, more muggy, air moves over the top of the dry, chilly air in place initially.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconWednesday: Scattered daytime showers, increasing at night with thunderstorms (0.60)  54/ 62

A cold front will slide through the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning and this will be the focal point of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. We stress that it likely won’t rain all day Wednesday, but showers will be possible before the more widespread rain and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

We’re monitoring this storm for a renewed threat of heavy rain and severe weather. At this distance, it’s far too early to be precise with the threat details, but we think widespread 1″+ rains are likely along with another enhanced straight-line wind event for at least portions of central Indiana during the Wednesday night/ Thursday time period.  Each storm system is different and presents its own set of challenges, but this storm has a few similarities to that which we just dealt with.

We have time to watch things and we’ll update accordingly as we move forward.  Stay tuned.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconThursday: AM Thunderstorms (0.50″) 42/ 55

We forecast thunderstorms to be likely Thursday morning, but as the cold front slides east of the region, the rain chance will end from west to east through the day.  Temperatures will cool dramatically as we go through the afternoon and evening hours with falling temperatures after a midnight high.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 45

The big story as we wrap up next week will be the colder air.  In fact, latest model data suggests we plunge into the 20s for lows by next Saturday morning.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/01/saturday-forecast-chilly-weekend-eyeing-another-significant-storm/

Oct 21

Cold Close To October; Watching Halloween Closely…

Right on cue, the well advertised cold pattern is settling in and looks to remain entrenched over the region to close October and open November. Note the eastern trough and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/21/cold-close-to-october-watching-halloween-closely/

Oct 15

Wednesday Forecast: Getting To Be That Time Of Year!

Updated 10.15.13 @ 4:42p

Zionsville, IN Rain showers will continue pushing east of the region tonight and we should be rain-free Wednesday. We discuss what’s sure to be a busy, chilly forecast below!

Status-weather-clouds-iconWednesday: Partly cloudy; 50/ 61

Tuesday’s rain will be all, but a memory Wednesday with sunshine returning to your forecast. A north breeze will be in play, helping usher in cooler temperatures.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconThursday: Scattered showers; 0.10; 44/ 58

Some weak upper level energy will move across the state on Thursday and this could help spark a scattered shower.  We’re not looking at all day rains or significant rainfall by any means.  Besides the rain, the other big weather story Thursday will be the chilly air.  We’ll be far below the middle 60s, which is considered the normal high for this time of year.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 42/ 63

We’ll wrap up the work week with very pleasant autumn weather.  A secondary cold front and resurgent chilly air will be set to invade for the weekend, but we think the frontal passage holds off until Friday night. As of now, we forecast the front to come through dry.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy; 40/ 54

Cool Canadian air will flow into the Hoosier state Saturday amidst chilly northerly breezes.  Winds may gust upwards of 20 MPH or so during the daytime Saturday.  You’ll certainly need that jacket or sweater as you head out to the fall festivals or the pumpkin patch!

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 38/ 57

Weather conditions will be very similar to that of Saturday on Sunday.  Dry skies and chilly breezes will dominate our landscape.  Temperatures will remain below average.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconMonday: PM shower chance; 0.10; 39/ 64

Our winds will back around briefly to the southwest and allow just enough moisture northward to potentially lead to a broken band of showers to move through the region Monday evening/ early Tuesday ahead of our next cold front. Most of your daytime Monday will remain dry and rain-free.  This front is packing a punch in the temperature department and will likely produce the coldest air so far this fall season by the middle of next week, including the chance of the first official freeze for IND.

imagesTuesday: Mostly cloudy; 41/ 49

As of now, next Tuesday is shaping up to be a rather cloudy, raw day.  Strong cold air advection will be ongoing.  Gusty north winds will help usher in the coldest air so far this fall season.  In fact, highs likely will remain below 50 degrees next Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies and chilly north winds.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/15/wednesday-forecast-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year/

Oct 15

Change On The Horizon…

So far, October 2013 is running well above normal in the temperature department: As shown above, the lower lakes and Ohio valley region has been the target for the biggest…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/15/change-on-the-horizon/

Oct 10

Friday Forecast: Busier Times Ahead In The Good Ole Forecast Office!

Updated 10.11.13 @ 6:45a

Zionsville, IN I, like many of you, make sure to enjoy the last of the warm, sunny weather this time of year.  As veteran Hoosiers know, the months ahead present a cloudy, bitterly cold, and windy time of things.  Thankfully, we have another gorgeous day lined up to close the work week.  We discuss this and busier times ahead below!

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 48/ 76

It’s only fitting that we close out the work week with the same type of weather we’ve enjoyed all week long- a cool start followed by beautiful weather conditions through the afternoon.  Get outside and spend some time soaking up the sunshine!

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSaturday: Mostly cloudy; scattered evening/ nighttime shower; 0.10″ or less; 50/ 76

Most of your daytime Saturday will provide pleasant weather to get some of those last minute chores taken care of.  We’ll notice an increase in our cloud cover followed by a broken line of showers (perhaps a rumble of thunder) rolling through the state from west to east.  We’re not looking at significant rainfall with this system.  In fact, we think most communities pick up less than one tenth of an inch of rain (if that).

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 55/ 70 

While some of our extreme eastern counties may see an AM shower Sunday, most of the day will be rain-free and feature increasing sunshine.  It’ll be another pleasant day for outdoor activities.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday:  Partly cloudy; 45/ 69

High pressure and an associated northerly air flow will dominate our weather to begin the new work week. North breezes may gust upwards of 15 MPH Monday and this will help keep us cooler than the weekend. We’ll start the day quite chilly (middle 40s for most) before warming into the upper 60s.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Increasing cloudiness, PM shower; 0.10″; 54/ 73

While we have some timing issues to work out as we draw closer to the event (GFS is more progressive whereas the ECMWF is slower), we’ll go ahead and introduce shower chances to your forecast as early as Tuesday evening. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconWednesday: Rain; 0.50″; 49/ 64

As of now, we see a cold front moving through the region Wednesday. Ahead of the front, showers and possibly a thunderstorm will blow through the region.  Our winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday night/ Thursday, helping drive the coldest air so far this season into the Hoosier state Wednesday night and Thursday.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconThursday:  Rain; 0.50″; 44/ 57

Again, as we posted above, timing is everything with our mid to late week cold front.  Overnight model data places a heavier corridor of rain through central Indiana mid week- potentially as much as 1″-1.25″ over the two day period.

We also want to continue pointing out that with the PNA shifting back into the  positive, the stage is set for chilly air to hang around the region with more “staying power” as we move through October’s second half.  We’ve covered this in posts below and will continue to go over things as we move forward…  It’s time to certainly pull out those coats! 🙂

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/10/friday-forecast-busier-times-ahead-in-the-good-ole-forecast-office/

Oct 08

Wednesday Evening Forecast Update

 

Forecast models continue to hint at the potential of our next significant storm system slated for a mid month arrival.  Latest data, hot off the press, remains in general agreement on the way things evolve, but details on timing and any heavy rain/ severe threat will have to be fine tuned as we move forward.

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gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht_s

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/08/wednesday-evening-forecast-update/

Oct 06

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

Rain was plentiful over the region over the past 48 hours.  While widespread 2″ rainfall was common for all of central Indiana, the heaviest rainfall fell across southern and eastern Indiana.

Here are a couple of illustrations of the rainfall totals.  The first image is storm total rainfall from the past 24 hours. Note the heavy, 4″ type rains over southern and eastern Indiana. The second image is off the awesome Weatherbell model site and shows the heavy rainfall event over Indiana that unfolded on a bigger scale.  Needless to say, the short term drought concerns that we were dealing with August and September have been erased.

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rtma_precip_48

Temperatures are running MUCH cooler over the region today and we also note a drier, more fall-like, air mass building into the region.  A couple of other items- it’s easy to see where the cold front is currently located (as of this post) as many in Ohio are still dealing with warm, humid conditions.  Additionally, the cold core upper level low remains to our west and will rotate over our region Monday.  This will lead to an unseasonably cool day with mostly cloudy skies and the potential of a scattered shower.

rtma_glus

As we move forward, despite the cooler air to welcome in the new work week, we remain in a warmer than average pattern overall.  The PNA continues to dominate the pattern and until this goes positive, don’t look for any sort of sustained cool weather across the eastern US.

gfs_pna_bias

 

 

 

 

 

 

The European operational and ensemble show the current trough and associated cool air retreating and allowing a warmer southwesterly air flow to build in this week.

Monday

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_24

 

 

Thursday

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_96After a quiet time ahead (and much needed to dry out), our next significant storm system appears to arrive around mid month.  Both the GFS and European model are in agreement with this idea.  Does another potential significant rain maker and associated severe weather event lie ahead mid month?  Possibly.

Here’s a look at the upper air pattern out at Day 10 off the European model.  We note another significant storm system ejecting out into the Plains states, most likely after dumping another impressive early autumn snow on the central and northern Rockies.

ecm_z500_anom_noram_11

The GFS idea is something similar to that of the European, suggesting confidence is relatively high, at least from this distance.

gfs_z500_sig_noram_37

All of that said, we’re still in a “transient” pattern as the next big storm is shown crashing onshore along the west coast by both models.  We shouldn’t be surprised by a “transient” pattern this time of year. It’s October, after all- a month notorious for many swings on the thermometer.

We’ll close with a look at the European’s temperatures anomalies over the course of the next 10 days.  Note the chill of early week erased with above normal warmth for the majority of the period. Also, pay attention to the unseasonable chill coming off the Rockies and into the Plains towards the end of the period below.  This is associated with the mid month storm.

tavg_anom_ecmwf_conus_1

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/06/sunday-afternoon-rambles/

Oct 05

Noisy Night Ahead; Longer Range Thoughts

A noisy night is ahead as the promised heavy rain event and strong to severe thunderstorms arrive in the city around, or just prior to 8pm.  A couple of rounds…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/05/noisy-night-ahead-longer-range-thoughts/

Oct 04

Quick Afternoon Video Update

Your complete full, updated, forecast will be online later this evening.  Here’s a look at the 12z model data….coming more in line with what the European model has been saying…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/04/quick-afternoon-video-update/

Oct 03

Friday Forecast: Feeling Like Summer In October

Updated 10.04.13 @ 7:45a

Zionsville, IN Thursday started off with cloudy skies and scattered showers, but rainfall amounts were extremely light for the most part across central Indiana.

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Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 64/ 84

While we cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm Friday, we think the majority of central Indiana wraps up the work week rain-free. Get outside and enjoy temperatures at summer-like levels. We think we top the middle 80s with continued unseasonably muggy conditions prevailing.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSaturday: Increasing clouds; late showers and t-storms; 0.40″ 66/ 80

Most of your Saturday looks rain-free and continued unseasonably warm. We’ll note a gusty southwesterly breeze from time to time. As a cold front approaches, skies will begin to cloud up and scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. Rain chances will be with us in a widely scattered form from late morning on, but the better chances of getting wet appear to arrive Saturday night. We also note the Storm Prediction Center has placed the region in a Slight Risk of severe weather, with damaging winds the primary threat Saturday night. Stay tuned!

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSunday: Cloudy with showers and t-storms- late day clearing; 0.60″ 50/ 66

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely on your way to church Sunday morning, continuing into the afternoon before clearing takes place late. Winds will shift to the northwest and help usher in a MUCH cooler air mass Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will fall through the afternoon Sunday.

Status-weather-clear-iconMonday: Mostly sunny; 43/ 60

“FINALLY.” At least that will be the word IndyWx.com uses to describe Monday’s weather as some true autumn air builds into the region. Monday is shaping up to be a beauty of a day with bright sunshine and crisp, cool temperatures.

Status-weather-clear-iconTuesday: Mostly sunny; 44/ 68

Tuesday is looking to be a carbon copy of Monday thanks to high pressure remaining in control of our weather.  Classic early October weather conditions will prevail early next week.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconWednesday & Thursday: Partly cloudy; mid to upper 40s/ lower to middle 70s

Dry conditions will continue as we progress through the middle of next week with moderating temperatures. Highs will return to above normal levels by Wednesday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/03/friday-forecast-feeling-like-summer-in-october/

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