Category: Forecast Discussion

Sep 03

Couple Dry Days Ahead Of Friday Storms; Weekend Cool Down…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Photos
September 3, 2014

Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.

63/ 84	62/ 87	67/ 89	58/ 73	51/ 74	51/ 75	56/ 79

Dry Time…Sun-filled days can be expected after morning fog burns off across outlying areas both today and Thursday. Temperatures will be a touch above normal.

Friday Night Storms Ahead Of Big Cool Down…A cold front will pass the state early Saturday. Ahead of this front, a line of strong to severe storms will be possible Friday night. We’ll fine tune timing as we progress through the next day or two. A blast of much cooler, drier air will then pour into the state over the weekend. It’ll feel very much like fall around these parts…

Next Rain Maker…We’ll enjoy another dry and seasonably cool couple days before our next potentially significant rain maker gears up for the middle of next week. Both the GFS and European forecast models are hinting this could be a significant rain maker, but caution this is still early and fine tuning will be required.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″
7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Farmer Paul of Full Circle Farm sent in this beautiful fog bank shot this morning. Full Circle Farm is located across southern Boone County in Whitestown. We encourage you to check out their web site if you haven’t already. Thanks, Paul!

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/03/couple-dry-days-ahead-of-friday-storms-weekend-cool-down/

Sep 02

Wet Pattern Looks To Continue Into Mid Month…

Filed under Autumn, European Model, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain
September 2, 2014

I was out and about earlier today and taking note that local lawns are much greener than they typically have been over the past few years by early September. We can thank recent rains and warmth, but it’s been a wet year, overall, to date. Think back to all of the winter snows and then add the copious spring and summer rains. The end result so far? 2014 is running close to 2″ above normal precipitation at IND.

Overnight rains went close to forecast. We picked up 1″ on the dot in the city, including northern ‘burbs. (IndyWx.com HQ in southern Boone County also picked up 1″). Heavier rains and localized flash flooding took place down state.

A look at today’s rainfall:

Moving forward, the pattern over the upcoming (2) weeks appears wetter than normal.

In the shorter term, the GFS and Canadian paint a wet picture out by Days 7-10 (BTW- the European agrees).

Modeling suggests 2-3″ type rainfall is possible over the upcoming 7-10 day period. A transient pattern can be thanked for the overall wet forecast.

The CFSv2 also suggests precipitation runs 150%-200% of normal levels through mid September.

As harvest begins across some Hoosier farm lands, note the increased wetness in the pattern through the upcoming 14 days, or so.

The region will remain in an active pattern through the next couple weeks, at least, as we lie in the battle ground between a stubborn southeastern ridge and an increasingly active early fall northern stream. A wetter than normal mid west will ensue…

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/02/wet-pattern-looks-to-continue-into-mid-month/

Sep 02

Improving Weather Through The Day…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
September 2, 2014

Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.

67/ 80	60/ 83	64/ 87	69/ 89	55/ 73	49/ 73	51/ 76

Decreasing Rain Coverage; Increasing Sunshine…A shield of moderate to heavy rain encompassed the state during the overnight. This shield of rain is slowly moving east, southeast and we’ll be looking at improving weather through the day. There’s still the chance of a widely scattered thunderstorm late morning or early afternoon as a frontal boundary slides through the region.

Sunny Days…As we progress through the mid and late week stretch, we’ll enjoy dry skies and plentiful sunshine. Normal lows and highs are in the lower 60s and lower 80s this time of year, so we’ll be very close to that Wednesday before moderating temperatures take us warmer than average to wrap up the work week.

Late Week Cold Front; Autumn Feel This Weekend…A cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass Friday evening and lead to the possibility of a broken line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. A MUCH cooler air mass will then invade the region behind the boundary, leading to a true fall-like feel this weekend!

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 0.75″
7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

John Salewicz sent us this beautiful sunrise photo Saturday morning before storms invaded portions of central Indiana. Thanks, John!

Are you craving cooler air to go along with that early season pumpkin spice latte? You’ll be in luck this weekend as a true fall-like air mass invades…

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/02/improving-weather-through-the-day/

Sep 01

Beneficial Steady Rains Coming Overnight…

Filed under Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, GFS, HRRR, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather
September 1, 2014

I’m just getting settled back in from Auburn, AL, but wanted to update a couple of items before a complete 7-day post in the morning.

1.) Rain is continuing to become more widespread to our southwest and will overspread southern and central Indiana during the overnight into the wee morning hours Tuesday. Most communities will accumulate 0.50″-1.00″ of needed rain, but a few locally heavier totals (closer to 2″) can be expected. The HRRR forecast rainfall totals by 11am (when most of the rain will be ending across even our eastern counties) looks solid and we agree with this for the most part. Note the heavier forecast totals across southwestern Indiana.

2.) A cold front will sweep the state Friday night into Saturday morning and result in a MUCH cooler weekend. Temperatures will fall to well below normal levels (by 5-8 degrees on average) over the weekend and result in a perfect, early fall-like, feel! Highs Saturday through Monday will likely only range in the lower to middle 70s with overnight lows in the lower 50s (a few readings into the 40s can be expected outside the city).

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/01/beneficial-steady-rains-coming-overnight/

Aug 29

Muggy And Potentially Stormy IndySportsReport.com Football Forecast

Filed under Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, High School Football, HRRR, Rain, Summer, T-storms
August 29, 2014

Good morning football fans! Your IndySportsReport.com high school football forecast promises to be a warm and humid one with storm potential… A warm front will lift north through the region…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/29/muggy-and-potentially-stormy-indysportsreport-com-football-forecast/

Aug 27

Slightly Less Humid; Still Can’t Rule Out A Storm…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, HRRR, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm
August 27, 2014

Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.

65/ 87	69/ 89	68/ 88	70/ 83	70/ 87	69/ 83	58/ 82

Break In Humidity Won’t Last Long…A briefly drier air mass will filter into the region tonight into Thursday, but won’t last long. Heat and humidity will return to wrap up the work week and move into the weekend. A couple of storms will be possible Thursday, but most should remain rain-free.

Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday through Sunday. We’re not talking about a weekend wash out by any means and there will be more dry hours than stormy.

Early Week Cold Front…A cold front will move through the area Tuesday evening and feature a cooler and drier brand of air for mid week. Stormy times continue beforehand with shower and thunderstorms in our Monday and Tuesday forecast before we dry things out Wednesday.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″ – 2.00″
7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

A briefly drier air mass will move into the region late tonight into Thursday. Humidity will return quickly to wrap up the work week.

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/27/slightly-less-humid-still-cant-rule-out-a-storm/

Aug 26

Front Moves In This Evening…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Weather Photos
August 26, 2014

Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.

69/ 90	69/ 87	64/ 86	65/ 89	68/ 88	69/ 86	70/ 88

Frontal Boundary Leads To Better Shower And Storm Coverage…A cold front will slip through central Indiana later this evening. This will be a focal point in better coverage of showers and thunderstorms today, especially this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy downpours can be expected though rainfall amounts won’t be uniform (rarely are this time of year).

The boundary will move just south of the region Wednesday before stalling out. It’ll remain close enough to maintain mention of scattered thunderstorms into your mid week forecast with a drier forecast Thursday. Temperatures will slip backwards a couple of notches and humidity values will improve to a degree mid week.

Stormy Times Return…After a somewhat drier time of things mid week, unsettled times will return late week into the Labor Day weekend. No all day rains are anticipated, but there will be periods of storminess into and through the weekend.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″-2.00″
7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

We received a couple colorful sunrise pictures this morning from Boone County, highlighted by cloud shots from storms ongoing to our north. Thanks to John (T) and Paul (B) for these great photos this morning!

Rainfall totals will be far from uniform today, but more locally heavy downpours can be expected.

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/26/front-moves-through-this-evening/

Aug 25

Monday Evening Rambles…

Filed under Forecast Discussion, Rain, Summer, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles
August 25, 2014

1.) What exciting news we had the pleasure of sharing earlier this morning. We’re pumped for our partnership with the fine folks over at IndySportsReport.com!

2.) The steering current will keep us on our toes over the coming days as periodic storm clusters threaten. It’s tough to pin point precise timing or location where these storm complexes will track, but it’s safe to say the overall region will be a focal point for additional storminess in the days ahead.

3.) Heat and humidity remain in the oppressive range through late week, before a potential punch of slightly cooler/ drier air. Admittedly, ridges can be difficult to move this time of year and models are struggling in handling the details in the mid range. We’ll keep an eye on things. As of now, we don’t see any sort of major push of cool/ refreshing air through at least the short to mid range period. The Canadian is the most bullish on a period of cooler air as we get into September. Stay tuned.

4.) We’ve made up for lost time in the rainfall department over the past week, or so. What was, initially, a bone dry August has improved. We’re now only running a little more than three tenths behind where we should be, officially.

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/25/monday-evening-rambles/

Aug 23

Continued Steamy; Afternoon Storms In Spots…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm
August 23, 2014

Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Fri.

70/ 89	70/ 88	71/ 90	70/ 90	71/ 90	70/ 88	68/ 85

Steamy…Plan for plenty of heat and humidity this weekend. Sunshine can be expected both days, but evening and nighttime storms will be scattered about the region. We don’t anticipate as widespread coverage as compared to late last week, but some locally heavy downpours will be around Saturday and Sunday, including the chance of more localized flooding.

Hot, Hot, Hot…The ridge will expand early next week and this will essentially eliminate rain chances Monday and Tuesday (only isolated coverage at best). Additionally, this will allow temperatures to reach the lower 90s for many communities across central Indiana.

Late Week Cold Front…We forecast more unsettled weather to develop late next week as a cold front draws closer to the area and the ridge begins to break down. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms lie ahead once past mid week, with best rain chances in the forecast period above likely arriving Friday.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″ (locally heavier totals)
7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Highs may reach 90 in a couple spots today, but we forecast Indy’s official Saturday high at 89.

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/23/continued-steamy-afternoon-storms-in-spots/

Aug 22

Cooler To Open September?

Filed under CFSv2, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
August 22, 2014

As we move through the next week, we continue to think we’ll cool things off as we wrap up August. We’re not talking about any sort of major unseasonably cool…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.

Leave comment

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/22/cooler-to-open-september/

Category: Forecast Discussion

Interested in past weather?