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Category: Forecast Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/02/tuesday-evening-stormy-for-some-tonight-wintry-next-week/
Feb 01
Monday Evening Video Update…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/01/monday-evening-video-update-6/
Jan 31
10 Day Ag-Weather Outlook…
10 Day AG-Weather Outlook
Issued: 01.31.16
Forecast period: 02.01.16 – 02.10.16
Focal Items:
- Plains blizzard Days 1-3
- Severe threat from the Mid South to the Ohio Valley Tuesday
- Impactful winter event developing late in the period
Summary: The forecast period will begin with strong ridging across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a significant trough digs across the west. That trough will lift northeast through the middle of the upcoming work week before re-amplifying over the upcoming weekend into early week 2 across the Plains and Ohio Valley region.
Sensible Impacts: A significant storm system will move off the Rockies and into the Plains Monday. The surface low will track northeast from SE CO Monday night into SW MI Tuesday night. To the north and northwest of the surface low, heavy snow and blizzard conditions will impact areas from CO, KS, NE, IA, MN, and WI. South and southeast of the surface low track, strong to severe thunderstorms will rumble through the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday night. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.
We’ll need to keep a close eye on the potential of a clipper system diving SE across the N. Plains and upper Ohio Valley over the upcoming weekend, but the bigger event appears to be a developing winter storm threat centered on the end of the period (2/8-2/10 time period). There are, obviously, a lot of details to sort through, but an impactful winter event is very possible across the Ohio Valley towards the end of the forecast period.
Temperature Anomalies: The period will open much warmer than normal, but transition cold, and eventually colder than normal by the end of the period across the forecast region.
Anomalous warmth will engulf the Ohio Valley to open the forecast period. Source: Penn State E-Wall
The pattern shifts colder than normal towards the end of the period across the Plains into the southeast. Source: Penn State E-Wall
Precipitation: A stripe of heavy snows (10″-15″) will fall from CO, NE, IA, southern MN, and WI with the initial early week storm. .5″-1.5″ of rain will fall across the Southeast, TN, and OH Valley regions (locally heavier totals where strong storm train). Overall, quieter times return mid and late week for the forecast region before the next potential strong storm develops late in the period.
For private weather consulting and more detailed ag-weather updates, please e-mail bill@indywx.com.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/31/10-day-ag-weather-outlook/
Jan 30
Taste Of Spring Today, But Winter Roars Back…
Highlights:
- Active period of weather ahead
- Spring-like now turns much colder
- Storms in between
- Snowy February ahead?
Taste Of Spring Today, But Winter Roars Back…A quick scan over the 7-day above shows the busy times that lie ahead. Our suggestion to you? Enjoy today’s sunshine and early taste of spring! Let us worry about what lies ahead. You’re welcome! 😉
We’ll add some mid and high level cloudiness into the picture later today and those clouds will lower and thicken tonight. Tomorrow, though still warm, won’t be as nice. Look for cloudy skies, scattered showers, and breezy SW winds.
We’ll be in between systems Monday with a generally dry day and a bit cooler, though still above average for this time of year.
A strong area of low pressure will quickly move from the central Plains Monday night into the Great Lakes Tuesday night. We’ll be on the warm side of this storm’s track and will note a dramatic shift in our wind to the SW early Tuesday that will help temperatures zoom into the lower 60s Tuesday. The downside? We’ll have to monitor things closely for strong to severe thunderstorm potential.
The area of low pressure will swing a cold front through here late Tuesday night and send temperatures into a free-fall for mid week. We’ll have to watch things closely as we’ll be in an active NW flow heading into next weekend. You know the drill by now- models struggle picking up pieces of energy plenty capable of producing accumulating snow from this distance with that potentially active NW flow.
Longer term, winter fans should really like what we’re seeing. We’ll have a more extensive post on this later in the weekend, but the pattern shaping up is one that’ll feature the more sustained cold pattern (relative to normal) in the middle of the country through most of February, including the Ohio Valley. A busy interior storm track is also noted in the coming weeks. Far too early for specifics, but it’s a pattern plenty capable of leading to above normal monthly snowfall in our neck of the woods. Again, more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/30/taste-of-spring-today-but-winter-roars-back/
Jan 28
Morning Ensemble Disco.
*Part of what we send our clients is a daily (two times/ day during active periods) ensemble discussion. Here’s an excerpt of this morning’s discussion that went out earlier. By the way, if you’re interested in joining our weather consulting services, please e-mail bill@indywx.com for more details.
…We note some significant differences in our morning ensemble data that’s creating some doubt in terms of the longevity of the coming cold. We still feel the heart of the cold is in the Mid West and Ohio Valley with this early February surge. The EC is likely a battle zone, at least initially.
The European is much more progressive in breaking down the cold across the central and east, while the GFS ensembles look much more realistic to us. Why? The GoA trough placement. The EPS is likely “dragging its heels” across the southwest with the southern energy and in return deepens the trough too much across the four corners region.
We see the GEFS going to a significant cold period in the 10-14 day period, centered over the mid section into the Ohio Valley. This is also during the time frame we think the first of two winter events impacts the Ohio Valley.
We’ll issue an afternoon ensemble discussion after having an opportunity to digest 12z data. Look for it in your inbox by 6p.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/28/morning-ensemble-disco/
Jan 27
Quick Wednesday Evening Video Update…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/27/quick-wednesday-evening-video-update-3/
Jan 27
Wednesday Morning Rambles…
January, to date, has been cold and dry, locally. Officially, Indianapolis is running 1° below normal and nearly 1″ below normal. After several relatively “boring” days, much more…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/27/wednesday-morning-rambles-6/
Jan 23
Blizzard of 2016…
**A fresh 7-day will be posted here later this morning. The past few days we’ve been busy updating our friends across the beautiful east TN mountains on the Blizzard of…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/23/blizzard-of-2016/
Jan 22
Major Winter Storm Southeast to the Mid Atlantic…
A severe winter storm will track from the southeast today to the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday. Crippling snow will fall from the southern Appalachians northeast (the final product will be…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/22/major-winter-storm-southeast-to-the-mid-atlantic/
Jan 19
Lots To Look At…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/19/lots-to-look-at/