Feb 20
To date, February is running slightly cooler and drier than average, locally. Expect a beautiful Saturday and we officially have issued a white leg warning. 🙂 With highs…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/20/saturday-morning-spring-today-but-winter-returns/
Feb 18
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/18/march-outlook/
Feb 18
1.) 10-day Client discussions (Pro and Premium) and our March Outlook (Premium) has been sent to your inbox. 2.) A windy warm-up is still on track as we wrap up…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/18/thursday-evening-rambles/
Feb 15
1.) Tuesday’s upper air disturbance looks to track further and further SW with each and every passing model run. While we’ll keep an eye on things, it’s apparent that best snow chances will be across far SW counties, and even that may be generous (this thing is tracking much further west than what appeared a couple days ago), courtesy of NCEP.
2.) A significant warm-up is still on schedule for late week, centered on Friday, where temperatures will likely push to, or exceed, 60 degrees as ridging builds in. Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com.
3.) The warmth will be brief, however, as a colder pattern returns (thank you positive PNA), including an interesting look for winter storm potential across the east days 8-10. (No need to get fancy with specifics at this juncture).
4.) The significant cold over the past 7 days has really eaten away at the warm start to the month, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
5.) Nearly 44% of the Lower 48 is snow covered at present. That compares to 25.6% of the Nation covered in snow for the same time last year.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/15/monday-evening-rambles-2/
Feb 13
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/13/snowy-valentines-day-on-the-way/
Feb 09
5-10 day temperature anomalies. SOURCE: Tropicaltidbits.com Week 2 Accumulated Precipitation Anomalies. SOURCE: Tropicaltidbits.com Interested in our personalized consulting services? Email bill@indywx.com for more details. We’re just beginning a very wintry…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/09/tuesday-morning-rambles-2/
Feb 07
10 Day AG-Weather Outlook
Issued: 02.07.16
Forecast period: 02.07.16 – 02.17.16
Focal Items:
Summary: Changes are underway at the beginning of the period with a positive PNA pattern in place. This will support a drier and warmer than normal time of things across the west with a shift towards much colder than normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country. Early in the period, we’re tracking a coastal storm that will deliver blizzard conditions to the Cape Monday and a big upper low over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will provide a prolonged snow shower event across the areas mentioned above. Toward the end of the period, we’ll have to remain focused over the southern/ central Plains for the potential of a developing winter storm that would then advance into the Ohio Valley and eventually Mid Atlantic.
Sensible Impacts: Strong ridging across the West will keep things drier and warmer than normal, with the action across the eastern half of the nation.
In addition to snow, wind, and near blizzard conditions that will impact the Cape to open the work week, blizzard conditions will also impact the northern Plains as an upper trough drops south. The same trough and associated upper level energy will deliver snow showers and embedded blinding snow squalls south into the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians through mid week, as well.
A very active northwest flow will send light to moderate snow makers southeast out of the N. Plains into the Ohio Valley through the upcoming work week. Overall, most snowfall accumulations will remain light, with the exception of Snow Belt areas.
A significant winter storm appears to be brewing next weekend and could impact a large portion of the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic towards the end of the period.
Temperature Anomalies: A very cold time of things is ahead for the forecast region through the period. In some cases, temperatures will fall to levels some 15-20 degrees below normal.
Temperature anomalies Tuesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
Temperature anomalies Wednesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
Temperature anomalies next weekend. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
Precipitation: Snowfall will generally be light through the forecast region this week. Despite the light snowfall, very strong winds will likely lead to blizzard conditions in the open country, particularly across IA and MN early in the period. Heavier snow will be possible as the potential winter storm develops next weekend across the central Plains.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/07/10-day-ag-weather-outlook-2/
Feb 06
The relatively quiet and mild time of things this weekend will quickly give way to the promised return of winter next week. An arctic cold front will sweep through the state late Sunday and set things in motion that will keep the weather feeling, and looking, very wintry around these parts over the upcoming week.
As we’ve discussed, models will struggle with handling the local impacts of multiple upper air disturbances that will race southeast in the fast northwest flow aloft. We think Monday-Tuesday offer up the best chances of accumulating snow in the near term. The upper energy will be able to maximize snow production around these parts and this looks like a 1″-3″ type event, with local amounts to 4″. Winds will be quite gusty and blowing and drifting will be an issue, particularly in the open country.
Monday evening
Tuesday evening
Another vigorous disturbance will race southeast Thursday afternoon. While the Canadian shows the bulk of the energy to our north, it would be close enough to ignite snow showers around here, as well. Expect small changes with timing and track as we get closer.
Thursday evening
Longer term, we also keep close eyes on next weekend. The pattern is one that should promote a significant widespread winter storm. The devil is in the details and we still have a ways to go, but the pattern set-up is one that screams an Ohio Valley winter storm threat from this distance.
Giddy up! 🙂
European Ensemble Valentine’s Day. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
European Ensemble Monday, Feb. 15th. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/06/series-of-upper-disturbances-bring-snow/
Feb 05
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/05/friday-evening-video-update-4/
Feb 03
A very busy, and WINTRY, pattern awaits next week. There are more questions than answers right now concerning the all-important specifics, but modeling is leaning more towards the northern stream dominating the pattern. While this takes the chances of one big, phased storm out of the equation, challenges abound, and ultimately the sensible weather may be very similar once everything is said and done, locally.
The upcoming weekend will be tranquil and mild. Continue Super Bowl prep and enjoy it.
Heading into Monday, an arctic cold front will move through the Ohio Valley and may be accompanied by a band of precipitation- likely rain to snow.
As we move into Monday night and Tuesday, forecast models are liking the idea of low pressure developing over the Great Lakes region and suggest this low slowly moves south into the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the same time, individual “spokes” of energy, or upper air disturbances, will move through the area in the fast, cold northwest flow.
500mb pattern Monday night. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
GFS ensembles. Source: Weatherbell.com
From a temperature perspective, what at one time (now) was a warm pattern, suddenly turns much colder than normal (early next week).
Stay tuned as we move forward and continue to fine tune the details. As of now, we’re confident on an accumulating snow event early-mid next week, but have a long way to go concerning details on timing, duration, etc.
Video update later this evening. Make it a great Wednesday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/03/northern-branch-to-be-dealt-with-complicated-wintry-pattern-next-week/