Category: Forecast Discussion
It’s a much cooler and overcast start to the work week. A quick snap shot of the morning satellite shows a stubborn low cloud deck that will slowly erode as we progress into the back half of the day from west to east.
Chilly high pressure will settle over the region through the early week and provide drier conditions. Temperatures will fall to frosty levels tonight (30-32 degrees for most).
Our air flow will back around to the SW Wednesday into Thursday and this will transport warmer, more moist air northward. As such, rain chances will begin to go up late Wednesday into Thursday.
Rainfall amounts don’t look particularly impressive from this distance (0.50″-0.75″), but we’ll continue to keep an eye on things.
A secondary cold front will move through the region to close the work week and send much cooler air south. The good news? While still colder than normal, model trends haven’t been as cold in recent runs. We still think multiple nights of sub-freezing temperatures are ahead, but the “absurd cold” looks to remain to our north/ northeast as of now.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/28/clouds-slowly-diminish-today-rain-returns-mid-week/
We open the forecast period dry and pleasant, but we turn stormy late Easter Sunday and MUCH colder air still looks to arrive as we welcome April. Details can be…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/26/saturday-morning-video-update-4/
We’ve been outlining the first (10) days of April for the potential of significant “out of season” cold for some time and confidence continues to build. We note all three…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/25/period-of-significant-late-season-cold-ahead/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, PSD, Rain, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles
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March 20, 2016
1.) Indianapolis is running much warmer (+9.1°) and slightly drier than normal (-0.15″) month-to-date. 2.) Snow is flying to our southwest, and accumulating for some in and around St.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/20/sunday-weather-rambles/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/18/friday-morning-video-brief/
The SPC has shifted the slight risk area NW with their latest outlook. Before we talk storms, today is actually the pick of the week as we’re dry during…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/15/storms-late-tonight/
We have scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to deal with today and Monday (along with plenty of dry time, too), but our attention is beginning to shift to the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday- particularly Tuesday night.
The SPC has outlined most of the state for a *Slight Risk* of severe thunderstorms Tuesday.
We note surface dew points surge into the upper 50s and lower 60s Tuesday.
This should be sufficient enough to help fuel a developing thunderstorm cluster in IL Tuesday afternoon/ evening that will likely race eastward with time Tuesday night. We note a strong area of low pressure over the upper Mid West that will “bull-whip” a cold front through the region Tuesday night. This will tap into the available moisture and relative warmth (lower to middle 70s a good bet for highs Tuesday) to continue the storm threat through IN and into western OH during the late evening/ overnight.
All modes of severe weather appear to be in play right now, but we’re particularly concerned about the potential of damaging straight line winds within any thunderstorm complex that develops Tuesday afternoon/ evening. We’ll also have to monitor the potential of discrete cells that develop away from the primary storm complex.
We turn cooler and windy Wednesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/13/monitoring-severe-potential-tuesday-night/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/12/saturday-evening-indywx-com-video-update/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/11/quick-friday-morning-video-brief/
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/10/long-range-client-discussion-winter-isnt-finished/
Our air flow will back around to the SW Wednesday into Thursday and this will transport warmer, more moist air northward. As such, rain chances will begin to go up late Wednesday into Thursday.
Rainfall amounts don’t look particularly impressive from this distance (0.50″-0.75″), but we’ll continue to keep an eye on things.