Before we talk about the warmth, we have some showers and embedded thunder to deal with across parts of the region today. Best rain chances today will be along and north of I-70, but a few showers could scoot south later this afternoon. We note most concentrated rain should fall through the early afternoon hours before moving out to allow for a dry evening.
Forecast radar 12p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
We get back to a dry pattern Monday and Tuesday. Along with the dry conditions, unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected. Along with the summer-like feel, very strong southwest winds will be noted (gusts to 30-40 MPH).
A strong SW flow will promote 30-40 MPH gusts early week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
The warmest temperature anomalies will be located over the Ohio Valley this week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Highs Monday and Tuesday will top out in the lower to middle 80s and rival records across central IN. While that’s impressive enough, overnight lows of 65-70 are almost unheard of.
Overnight lows Tuesday morning will be close to 70 degrees. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Cooler air will begin to move in by late week as a trough replaces the warm ridge. While we’re very confident on the much cooler feel, details in regards to the specifics around rain timing and amounts remain “muddy” at best. We’ll forecast best rain chances to arrive Thursday, but caution this may have to be fine tuned as we move forward. Highs that were in the 80s for early week will crash late week (upper 50s to lower 60s).
European ensemble shows the cool and unsettled late week pattern. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com
As of now, next weekend looks dry and cool, but it was only yesterday that rain chances looked like they may continue into the early portions of the weekend. Stay tuned. As previously mentioned, temperatures will be much cooler (upper 30s to lower 40s for lows and lower to middle 60s for highs).
Complete 7-day will be posted later!
Tuesday will remain rain-free across the region, along with pleasant temperatures and humidity levels (mid 70s after a low in the lower 50s).
Rainfall amounts don’t look particularly impressive; generally 0.10″-0.25″ during the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time frame.
The cool air flowing in behind the front is impressive though. In fact, highs both Thursday and Friday will likely only reach the lower 60s (if that).
Despite the chilly air that will be with us to wrap up the work week, ensemble data is in excellent agreement on a significant warmer than average regime developing under a big eastern ridge in the 6-10 day. This will likely promote highs into the lower 80s next week for a few days. Impressive, no doubt, considering we’ll be rumbling through the second half of October by that point.
2.) A cold front will pass through our neck of the woods as we put a wrap on the work week. While moisture is limited with the front, a much cooler air mass will greet us out the door Saturday morning. A light shower is possible Friday afternoon or evening, but this won’t be a big deal and most high school football games will remain dry. Temperatures Saturday morning will be in the 40s with lingering low clouds and areas of fog possible. We should shake the morning low cloudiness and allow for sunshine most of the day. Temperatures will remain crisp; generally in the lower to middle 60s for highs.
In addition to the central PAC anomalies, we also are keying in on some other items of interest in the overall SST configuration:
The SST CA model is quickly becoming one of our more trusted seasonal forecast models. We note how it becomes increasingly bullish on a central and eastern trough as winter wears on (by the way, this is likely to go deep into spring this year, too).
Cold overwhelms the pattern and when you combine it with the active storm track (noted by the green hues, suggesting above normal precipitation through our neck of the woods), confidence is continuing to grow for an above normal snow season.
The SST configuration on the JAMSTEC would suggest a cold, stormy set-up, locally. That said, while it sees the above average precipitation, it’s awfully warm at the surface.
The NMME (to no surprise…) would suggest a very warm, wet winter.
As a reminder, our complete and final annual winter outlook will be posted here during the second half of October. That will include additional model data, along with several other points behind our reasoning for our winter forecast. As we always do, we’ll put “pen to paper” when it comes to our winter forecast, including our expected temperature and snowfall anomalies. Given the data above, including the warm JAMSTEC and NMME, it’s going to be very, very hard to see a warm winter here. In fact, our idea is for the exact opposite, given the SST configuration, and lines up more closely with the SST CA idea at this point. We’re also in the camp of a very, very active storm track through the Ohio Valley. “Big-hitter” potential is present from a winter storm perspective, especially given that we are likely to see resistance from the SE ridge.
