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Category: Forecast Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/31/video-unsettled-weather-returns-early-taste-of-autumn-by-friday/
Jul 30
Even Cooler Next Weekend: Early Taste Of Autumn…
The weather this weekend has been simply stunning. We’ve enjoyed unseasonably cool and refreshing air to go along with wall-to-wall sunshine. If you’re a fan of the unseasonably refreshing conditions, you’re in luck, as another blast of September-like air will arrive next weekend.
A cold front will sweep through the state Friday morning. While we’ll handle the specifics from a precipitation perspective in later posts, most widespread showers and thunderstorms appear to arrive Thursday. A deep trough will take up residence across the Mid West and East next weekend and result in temperatures more like late-September that early-August.
Look for fairly steady or slowly falling temperatures Friday afternoon (how often can we say that in early August?!) along with a gusty northwest breeze. That will set the tone for the weekend that will include low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s and highs in the middle 70s. Unlike this weekend, we’ll have a few more clouds and the threat of a passing shower with enough upper level energy around.
Much more later! Enjoy your Sunday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/30/even-cooler-next-weekend-early-taste-of-autumn/
Jul 27
JMA Weeklies: Hottest Of The Summer Is Behind Us…
The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:
- An unseasonably cool close to July
- Worst of the summer heat is behind us
- Warmest anomalies along the East and West Coasts
Week 1:
A trough will sink into the central and eastern portions of the country and result in rather widespread below normal and quite refreshing conditions as we close the month of July. Along with the cool, dry air will come an extended stretch of rain-free conditions through the latter portions of next week.
Week 2:
The JMA suggests the mean trough position will remain across the central portions of the country with signals of ridging developing along the Northwest coast. Cool, wet weather (compared to average) is forecast central as the heat continues across the West. We also note developing warmth across the Northeast region.
Weeks 3-4:
Seasonal temperatures are set to unfold across the central late August with warmest anomalies painting themselves across the Northeast and Northwest portions of the country. The pattern, locally, is set to become more active from a precipitation perspective as wet conditions return.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/27/jma-weeklies-hottest-of-the-summer-is-behind-us/
Jul 26
VIDEO: Locally Heavy Rain Thursday; Unseasonably Cool & Refreshing Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/26/video-locally-heavy-rain-thursday-unseasonably-cool-refreshing-weekend/
Jul 25
VIDEO: Stormy Weather Unfolds Late Wednesday Night; Early Fall-Like Weather This Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/25/video-stormy-weather-unfolds-late-wednesday-night-early-fall-like-weather-this-weekend/
Jul 22
VIDEO: Oppressive Feel Gives Way To Strong Storms…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/22/video-oppressive-feel-gives-way-to-strong-storms/
Jul 20
JMA Weeklies: Seasonal Pattern To Open August
The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:
- Central hot pattern doesn’t last
- Seasonal pattern takes hold
- Heat builds across the Northeast region
Week 1:
Hottest anomalies remain across the central region, but the days are numbered on this pulse of heat and the JMA Weeklies suggest a cooler, more seasonal, pattern looms to close July and open August. We note the wet regime across the Southwest region, where associated cooler anomalies are also located.
Week 2:
It’s a “book end” hot pattern that includes heat along both the Northwest region and a developing hot pattern over the Northeast. The central region, including here on the home front, looks very seasonal. With a subtle northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of storm complexes at times.
Weeks 3-4:
Our attention is drawn to the heat across the Northeast region and the cooler, wetter regime (relative to average) across the Southwest. Locally, there aren’t any strong indications for big time heat or heavy rains.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/20/jma-weeklies-seasonal-pattern-to-open-august/
Jul 17
Monday Morning Rambles…
1.) July, MTD, is running slightly cooler (- 0.1°) and much wetter (+ 2.31″) than average across the region.
2.) While the radar is rain and storm-free this morning, a left over boundary, combined with daytime heating will help spark isolated to widely scattered storm coverage this afternoon.
3.) The big weather story this week will be an increasingly hot and humid feel once to mid and late week, including the weekend. While today will continue the theme of slightly cooler than average from the weekend, we’ll more than make up for the refreshing feel later this week. Highs will push to around 90° Wednesday through Sunday as the ridge expands.
4.) Despite the hot and humid feel that develops this week, it won’t last. Like so many other times this summer that heat tries to build east, the transient weather pattern will continue to prevent it from “hitting and holding.” You guessed it, as we transition from the hot conditions to cooler weather next week, rain and storm chances will be on the increase, including the potential of heavy rain. As of now, best rain and storm chances appear lined up for late week through the weekend and into early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/17/monday-morning-rambles-5/
Jul 10
Active Times This Week…
The overall set-up this week will include a northwest flow aloft with multiple disturbances riding southeast out of the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley. Each disturbance will aid in helping ignite more widespread rain and thunderstorms. The first couple waves of rain and thunderstorms look to impact central Indiana late morning into the early afternoon before the potential of additional thunderstorms late evening into the overnight. Some of the storms may become severe, including damaging winds.
A quick step outside this morning will tell the story on just how different it feels. Gone is the refreshing air mass we enjoyed over the weekend and in return we’ve transitioned to an oppressive, tropical feel. Dew points will remain in the 70s through the majority of the work week and precipitable water values will reach 2″+ at times. With such a moisture laden air mass in place, flash flooding will likely result for some communities as the storms continue to track over the same areas this week.
Additional waves of thunderstorms will impact the region through mid-and-late week before we advect some drier air into the state Friday evening into the weekend. Despite the lower dew points and cooler air, we still can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm this weekend as a secondary front settles south.
When we total things up in the rainfall department through Saturday, widespread 2″-3″ can be expected, however, as mentioned, where storms “train,” much higher totals of 3″-6″+ will be a good bet.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/10/active-times-this-week/
Jul 08
Pleasant Weekend Gives Way To A Stormy Week Ahead…
It was a stormy Friday across central Indiana, including hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding. Thankfully, as we open the weekend, weather conditions are much more pleasant. The surface front that helped trigger the bumpy close to the work week has pushed south and is allowing a much more pleasant (much drier and slightly cooler) air mass to ooze into the region. With the exception of patchy fog across southern Indiana, skies are mostly sunny.
Patchy fog will burn off by 10a across southern Indiana.
A cooler and less humid feel is greeting us out the door this morning.
Pleasant weather will remain through the majority of Sunday, but we’ll begin to notice an uptick in humidity late in the day. This is a harbinger of things to come as a true tropical feel lifts back north. Factor in the increasing moisture levels (it’ll feel oppressive by mid-week) with increasing amounts of energy and instability and big storms will likely result.
A moisture-rich air mass will engulf the region much of the upcoming work week.
The core of the heat will be centered over the western half of the country next week and with a northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to remain on guard for individual disturbances tracking southeast into the Mid West and Ohio Valley. These will help trigger more widespread storm coverage from time-to-time through the week. Similar to the storms yesterday, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding are the biggest concerns with these storm complexes. 7-day rainfall totals through late-week will feature widespread 2″-3″ across central Indiana, including locally heavier amounts of 3″-6″ in spots where storms train. We’ll have to sure-up specific storm timing as we get closer.
As we look ahead, timing, once again, may be our friend, as modeling currently suggests a drier regime returns by next weekend.
Make it a great Saturday, friends! More later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/07/08/pleasant-weekend-gives-way-to-a-stormy-week-ahead/