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Category: Forecast Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/07/video-coldest-air-of-the-season-arrives-to-close-the-work-week/
Nov 05
VIDEO: Severe Weather Sunday; Wintry Push In The Week Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/05/video-severe-weather-sunday-wintry-push-in-the-week-ahead/
Nov 03
Growing Severe Threat Sunday…
We have growing concerns of a severe weather event Sunday afternoon and evening across the state. This morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included most of Indiana in an “Enhanced” risk of severe weather. From this distance, all modes of severe weather seem possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado or two.
A trough and associated cold front will slice into an unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air mass Sunday. Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures should climb into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon (average high is in the upper 50s) and dew points will reach the lower to middle 60s. While the developing surface low isn’t expected to be terribly strong, as this feature moves northeast, it’ll help drag a cold front into this warm and increasingly unstable air mass late Sunday. From this distance, conditions seem favorable for a couple of super cells to develop Sunday afternoon and evening. We’ll have to keep a close eye on the northward extent of the warm front as this would be the areas of greatest concern for potential tornadic activity Sunday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are also included in Sunday’s severe threat. We’re in the second severe weather season, after all, and this kind of event isn’t unusual. Late November 2013 comes to mind.
It’ll be important to remain weather-aware Sunday and stay tuned all weekend for future updates. We’ll transition to a much cooler regime (back to below average) next week.
A cold front will slice into unseasonably warm and moist air Sunday afternoon and evening. A severe weather episode is a growing concern. Remain weather-aware.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/03/growing-severe-threat-sunday/
Oct 31
VIDEO: Wet Snow For Some Early Wednesday…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/31/video-wet-snow-for-some-early-wednesday/
Oct 30
Cold Turn After A Warm Month; Unsettled Week Ahead…
The past (7) days has featured a cold turn through the central in the face of a warm October up to this point.
The upcoming few days will feature additional unseasonably chilly conditions before moderating through the second half of the week.
This will feature a hard freeze for central Indiana tonight. We dipped to the first 32° temperature of the season here at IndyWx.com HQ this morning and will likely beat that Halloween morning. Widespread upper 20s to around 30° can be expected.
This cold air is thanks to a cold front and reinforcing chill that will feature a band of showers that scoots through the state late morning into the early afternoon.
Rainfall amounts won’t be significant and feature totals between 0.10″ to 0.20″ through most of central Indiana.
Unsettled weather will return late week and through the upcoming weekend, but temperatures will moderate and return to levels that are above average. There are indications cold will push again in the 8-10 day period, but a warmer pattern will engulf our region during the medium range period and feature temperatures that will reach the 60s by Thursday and Friday.
The warmer conditions will also come with rain. A “wavy” cold front will approach late week with showers before returning north as a warm front late in the weekend. Finally, this frontal boundary will push southeast early next week with cold air returning. With the movement and stubborn nature of the front, expect a prolonged duration of unsettled conditions. It won’t rain the entire time, but we’ll keep showers in our forecast beginning Wednesday into the weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/30/cold-turn-after-a-warm-month-unsettled-week-ahead/
Oct 28
VIDEO: Feeling Like Winter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/28/video-feeling-like-winter/
Oct 26
VIDEO: Looking At The Medium-Longer Term…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/26/video-looking-at-the-medium-longer-term/
Oct 26
Analyzing The New JMA Weeklies…
The NEW JMA Weeklies are in and they center the coolest anomalies for November across the central, including our region. Overall, they’re pretty chilly relative to normal, and also wetter than average. Perhaps we get into some November frozen precipitation?
Week 1:
Week 2:
Weeks 3-4:
28 Day Mean:
After the cold start to the month, the JMA Weeklies suggest ridges will “bookend” the country as November evolves, especially the Northeast region. This fits our research, as well, and fits the pattern, overall. If you haven’t had an opportunity to read our Winter Outlook, we discussed the potential of early cold centering itself into the “belly” of the country and the Weeklies appear to be seeing this, as well.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/26/analyzing-the-new-jma-weeklies/
Oct 25
Wednesday Evening Weather Notebook; Frost On The Pumpkin Tonight…
I.) Frost On The Pumpkin: Skies will clear tonight and winds will go calm. Chilly high pressure will briefly build over the eastern Ohio Valley and lead to a calmer period of weather overnight into early Thursday morning. The end result will be the first widespread frost of the season across central Indiana, including many dipping into the lower-to-middle 30s.
II. Gusty Thursday: After a cold, calm start to our Thursday, southerly winds will become gusty late in the afternoon. This is a result of an approaching cold front that will impact the region Friday.
III. Unseasonably Cold Weekend: A cold front will pass Friday afternoon and a band of showers will accompany the frontal passage. Winds will shift to the northwest late in the day and drive in a sharply colder close to the work week. Air will grow cold enough to potentially support snow to mix in with the rain as precipitation comes to an end. Additionally, upper level energy and the colder air mass this weekend (the air will have a bite to it) could support mixed rain and snow showers Sunday. – Novelty stuff only, but those first flakes are always special to see. Nonetheless, temperatures will run well below normal. In fact, highs will be closer to our average low temperature this weekend.
IV: Reinforcing Halloween Chill: We still stand firm on the idea of warm costumes being required this Halloween as chilly reinforcements blow into town Monday night. This will result in Halloween featuring a high in the mid to upper 40s with lows Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning dipping to around freezing (upper 20s in outlying areas away from the metro). Most of Trick-or-treat hours should feature temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/25/wednesday-evening-weather-notebook-frost-on-the-pumpkin-tonight/
Oct 24
VIDEO: A MUCH Colder Pattern Is Here; Scattered Snow Showers Sunday…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/24/video-a-much-colder-pattern-is-here-scattered-snow-showers-sunday/