January is running more than 11.5° below average and more than 50% of the country is currently covered in snow.
However, big changes begin to take place this weekend and will remain intact for the majority of the next couple weeks. The mean trough position will back into the west while ridging takes hold across the east. This will feature temperatures that will push to above average values and lead to an active and moist southwesterly flow.
Over the upcoming (10) days, temperatures may reach 50°, or greater, on 3 to 4 of those days. Compared to how frigid we’ve been (already had 7 mornings this month with sub-zero lows), this will feel like a heat wave.
We’ll leave you with a heads up to enjoy the January thaw (yes, even if you’re one of those winter lovers out there) as the pattern sure looks like it’ll deliver a return to bitterly cold, wintry times as we head into February… In fact, analogs would suggest once winter returns, it’s likely to remain in place deep into spring this year.
Eight mornings so far this winter have plunged below zero. We’ll see if we can add another to that list this morning (IND is officially at 0° as we write this).
If you’re sick and tired of the cold, wintry conditions relief is on the way. We’ll turn “less cold” through late-week and above normal over the weekend (around 40° Saturday and into the upper 40s Sunday).
A storm system will cut into the ridge Sunday with showers (image 1) followed by “backlash” snow showers and gusty winds Monday (image 2).
Thereafter, models see another storm that will approach the region late next week. Since cold air won’t be readily available, it’ll take the perfect track to get impactful wintry conditions from this next event. We’ll monitor things closely next week. With this near Day 10, models will continue to struggle with timing, track, and intensity over the next few days.
As a whole, the second half of January should run milder than average. However, as we all know, that doesn’t mean we won’t have wintry challenges to deal with. The upcoming (10) days illustrates that nicely. Looking ahead, we note the MJO is forecast to rumble through the warmer phases (especially if you’re reading this from the eastern regions of the country- where we expect warmth to be most anomalous into early February).
Other teleconnections also support a relaxation of the cold, and warmer times, overall, with the exception of the Arctic Oscillation which remains negative through the period.
It should be noted that the longer range data and overall trends, supported by our analogs, suggest winter roars back with authority as we get into February. In fact, winter might not be so quick to leave this year either. Data paints a cold, wintry open to meteorological spring this year, but we’re getting way ahead of ourselves. It is only mid-January, after all. 🙂
Arctic high pressure will settle over a growing snowpack to help setup a frigid stretch through early and mid week. Multiple nights with below zero readings are expected beginning Tuesday morning where most will wake up to readings of 3° to 8° below zero (not counting the wind chill).
