Right out of the gate, our expectation is that the period Feb. 1st through March 6th will provide a memorable period of winter weather across central Indiana. Included in our thinking is that between 15″-20″ of snow falls at IND during the period and at least (1) night features lows between 10° and 15° below zero.
Before we get into a new period of wintry conditions, the region will enjoy an unseasonably pleasant stretch of weather, overall, over the upcoming week. Temperatures will run much milder than average most days and precipitation events will remain relatively light and insignificant until we get to late next week.
While we’ll deal with light rain Saturday morning, light snow Monday with upper energy and a transient shot of cold air, the primary message through next Wednesday is that our weather pattern will be rather benign considering we’re in the “heart” of winter. In fact, our current 7-day reflects (3) days of highs of 50°, or greater. That’s impressive for late January, and you have our full permission to enjoy every minute of it! 🙂
As we transition into February, the ball begins rolling towards a new period of significant winter weather. Initially, this will likely come in a “step down” fashion. We forecast the initial jab of cold to arrive late next week and this will likely be accompanied by a period of rain switching over to a period of snow Thursday (accumulating snow is on the table with this event). We note the GEFS sees the transition to cold as we enter the second month of the year.
A combination of ingredients will come together to initially lead to a very active/ stormy period for the first half of February. Within this initial couple weeks of the month, we expect an expanding snowpack to encompass the Mid West and Ohio Valley region. While we can’t get specific on any one particular storm more than two weeks out, confidence is higher than normal on the pattern putting down greater than average amounts of the white stuff. Snow enthusiasts, locally, have to be “salivating” over the resistance put up from the eastern ridge and the resurgent cold pressing into the Plains and Midwest. A busy interior storm track seems like a good bet.
It’s as we get into mid-February where we think significant, bitter cold will take the headline. It’s a “feedback” of sorts between getting the snowpack laid down first and then having the MJO swing through the phases that favor late-winter arctic intrusions into the eastern portion of the country. Unlike the past couple of winters, plenty of cold is building- and waiting at the gate to be unleashed southeast over the next several weeks.
Finally, we also note the new European Weeklies remain bullish on a prolonged colder than average stretch of weather, accompanied by above normal precipitation, February into mid-March. This is significant as run-to-run consistency has been noted and is backed up by long-term pattern techniques.
We’ll revisit our call of 15″-20″ Feb. 1 through March 6th, including at least one night of lows between 10°-15° below, on March 7th… In the meantime, we’ll be here with blog updates and videos through the active upcoming several weeks ahead.
Temperatures are in the upper 20s for most central Indiana communities this morning and it’s not until we get into the early to mid afternoon hours when we anticipate temperatures to climb to around freezing. As a result, slick conditions (especially side streets and back roads) can be expected into the afternoon and evening hours.
Overnight lows tonight will fall into the lower to middle 20s so re-freezing and slick spots on area roadways can be expected into Thursday morning.
Thankfully, a southwesterly air flow and new warming trend will develop through the day Thursday, along with a return of sunshine!
Much more later today on the developing new cold pattern…
I. Another round of showers will pivot through central Indiana later this evening ahead of a cold front. Once the cold front sweeps through the state, temperatures will fall during the overnight and grow cold enough to allow precipitation to transition to wet snow showers Tuesday as upper level energy rotates through the Ohio Valley.
II. High pressure will settle overhead through midweek and while we’ll “chill” to near seasonal levels Wednesday, the rebound will begin Thursday and we’ll climb into the 50s for highs Friday, complete with an increasingly gusty southwest breeze.
III. Our next storm system will approach late Friday night into Saturday with rain and gusty winds. Models differ on rainfall amounts and we’ll split the difference for now (in general we forecast between 0.25″ to 0.50″, but we’ll keep a close eye on data over the next few days).
IV. We’ll turn cooler for the second half of the weekend, but the overall pattern is a transient one into next week and overall milder than average. That said, things will begin to change in big time fashion as we rumble into February. Winter is a long ways from being over…
Areas of fog and drizzle will continue this evening before a stronger southwesterly air flow pushes the low clouds and fog north during the overnight. As a cold front draws closer, steadier rains and perhaps even a clap of thunder (especially down state) will arrive Monday morning. Temperatures will remain nearly steady or even rise overnight into the lower 50s.
The frontal passage, itself, will take place Monday evening and may feature a couple of gusty showers, especially across western and central portions of the state.
Temperatures will grow colder Monday night into Tuesday morning and precipitation will end as snow showers Tuesday.
High pressure will build in through midweek and provide dry conditions with increasing sunshine. The midweek stretch will begin seasonable before warming ahead of our next storm system.
That next storm system will deliver rain as early as Friday evening into Saturday. We’ll note an increasingly gusty southwesterly breeze as we wrap up the work week, along with increasing cloudiness.