Category: Forecast Discussion

Apr 17

Rounds Of Storms To Close The Work Week; Chilly, But Dry Weekend…

Updated 04.17.24 @ 5:17a

While we’re still tracking storm potential today, there are a lot of questions around where these will initialize. Thinking here is right around the city, itself, and then points northeast (better chance of stronger storms for places like Fort Wayne and Muncie than Indianapolis-proper).


Storms should develop around or just after lunchtime (around 1p, or so) across central Indiana and then race off to the east. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of around 40 MPH can also be expected today.

Instability levels are marginal at best today which, thankfully, should prevent widespread severe weather, locally.

A more stable airmass will quickly arrive tonight and remain in place through the daytime Thursday.

Our next round of storms, some of which will likely be gusty, will blow into town overnight into the predawn hours Friday.

High pressure is still slated to build in to allow for a much calmer (and cooler) weekend. Keep an eye on the potential for frost both Sunday and Monday mornings.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/17/rounds-of-storms-to-close-the-work-week-chilly-but-dry-weekend/

Apr 16

VIDEO: Couple Rounds Of Storms To Get Through Before A Fabulous Weekend…

Updated 04.16.24 @ 5:43a

It doesn’t get any better around these parts this time of year than what we experienced Monday. Unfortunately, today marks the return of unsettled weather that will continue through midweek. The reward after going through a few days of rain/ storms? An incredible weekend, complete with a return of sunshine!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/16/video-couple-rounds-of-storms-to-get-through-before-a-fabulous-weekend/

Apr 15

VIDEO: Gorgeous Monday Transitions To Unsettled Times; Cooling This Weekend Gives Way To Renewed Warming In The 10-15 Day…

Updated 04.15.24 @ 7:45a

We couldn’t ask for better weather to kick off the new work week. Plentiful sunshine, temperatures heading for the 80s, and a generally light, variable wind will make it tough to work indoors today. Rain and storm coverage will grow in the coming days…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/15/video-gorgeous-monday-transitions-to-unsettled-times-cooling-this-weekend-gives-way-to-renewed-warming-in-the-10-15-day/

Apr 14

VIDEO: Keeping An Eye On Evening Storms East; Busy Week Ahead Of A Drier, Cool Stretch…

Updated 04.14.24 @ 8:18a

This morning we’re unveiling a new “hand-crafted” 10-day forecast that will be below the Client video discussion and/ or posts each morning. Enjoy!

Today opens bright and quiet and most of our Masters Sunday will feature calm conditions, locally. The only fly in the ointment will come from a cluster of storms that will erupt across Ohio and make an attempt to back build into at least eastern portions of the state this evening. We’ll keep close eyes on trends. Otherwise, Monday will get back to a return to quiet conditions before an active stretch develops. Eventually, we’ll turn much calmer (and cooler) next weekend into early stages of the following week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/14/video-keeping-an-eye-on-evening-storms-east-busy-week-ahead-of-a-drier-cool-stretch/

Apr 13

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 04.13.24 @ 12p

While unseasonably warm air will build in here early next week, don’t put away the cold weather gear just yet. We’re likely even looking at additional frost threats as we get towards late next weekend and/ or early Week 2. More details below in this week’s #AGwx and #Severe Weather Outlook.

“Transitional” is the word to describe the upcoming couple weeks worth of weather around these parts. The warmth to open the period will cool significantly next weekend and early Week 2, only to give way to renewed warming late April.

Note the roller coaster in the temperature anomalies over the next couple of weeks.

The active pattern in the week ahead will dry significantly late in the forecast period as the cooler airmass takes hold.

In the more immediate term, we’re tracking 2 storm systems in the week ahead: Tuesday – Wednesday and again Thursday night into Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center includes western Indiana in a risk of severe weather Tuesday. We’ll monitor for the potential of a further east extension of this risk area.

We think (2) rounds of storms are on deck Tuesday. The first round likely is associated with a warm front lifting north through the state Tuesday morning (hail threat) followed by a second round of activity Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (main concern being damaging straight line winds with this round). As of now, storm total rainfall amounts of 0.50″ to 1″ seem likely during this timeframe.

Another round of showers and embedded thunder will precede a blast of chilly air next weekend. We bracket Thursday night into Friday morning for this particular round of rain. An additional half inch, or so, of rain seems reasonable from this distance.

By the time we get to next weekend and early Week 2, drier and much cooler, more stable air should take up residence.

We note the warm open, chilly finish in the 10-day meteogram. Also note the frost threat at the end of this period.

Upcoming *10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1″ to 1.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/13/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-51/

Apr 12

VIDEO: Mother Nature Is Making Us Earn It Saturday; Long Range Pattern Remains Active/ Stormy…

Updated 04.12.24 @ 7:48a Today will certainly be another less than ideal weather day across central Indiana, but the trade off for what awaits Saturday will be worth it. You’ve…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/12/video-mother-nature-is-making-us-earn-it-saturday-long-range-pattern-remains-active-stormy/

Apr 11

VIDEO: Hang In There- Brighter Open To The Weekend Coming; Long Range Thoughts Into Late Month…

Updated 04.11.24 @ 7:39a Masters Thursday will be a wash-out up this way. Thankfully, down at Augusta, GA we’re talking about better weather- at least relatively speaking. 🙂 Additional showers…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/11/video-hang-in-there-brighter-open-to-the-weekend-coming-long-range-thoughts-into-late-month/

Apr 10

VIDEO: Heavy Rain Develops Later Today Into Thursday; Keeping An Eye On The Potential Of Strong Storms Early Next Week…

Updated 04.10.24 @ 7:40a We’re only dealing with a few light showers out the door this morning, but a heavier and more widespread area of rain will develop through the…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/10/video-heavy-rain-develops-later-today-into-thursday-keeping-an-eye-on-the-potential-of-strong-storms-early-next-week/

Apr 09

Dreary Stretch Before A Pleasant Start To The Weekend…

Updated 04.09.24 @ 7:20a

We’ll have a lot of clouds around today but the lions share of our Tuesday will be dry. That changes this evening as we target better chances of showers and storms to develop across southern and southeastern Indiana- primarily south and east of the city, itself.

This is the beginning of another unsettled and dreary stretch as a surface low lifts north and tracks through the Ohio Valley midweek.

Periods of heavy rain can be expected Wednesday evening into Thursday and we continue to monitor the potential of strong to severe storms in the “warm sector” across Ohio Thursday.

In general, most central IN rain gauges should accumulate 1.5” to 2.5” of rain but there will be locally heavier amounts.

Upper level energy will whip in behind the departing low keeping showers in play as we wrap the work week up on Friday.

The weekend still looks like it’ll open on a great note with increasingly sunny and mild conditions Saturday before another opportunity for scattered showers and embedded thunder Sunday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/09/dreary-stretch-before-a-pleasant-start-to-the-weekend/

Apr 08

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 04.08.24 @ 6:30p

We’re running a little more than 3° below normal to open the month, but changes are in the offing. The majority of the upcoming 7-day period should feature seasonal to above normal temperatures and that will likely only strengthen into the Week 2 timeframe.

Unfortunately, we have a big rain event set to unfold as we roll through the middle of the week. Rain (more “showery” in nature) will continue as we close out the work week before a gorgeous Saturday.

The recent chilly open to April will begin to transition to a warmer look over the upcoming week.
Slightly cooler air Friday will give way to a significant warm-up through the weekend and into Week 2.

Our expected active spring will remain intact over the next couple weeks, including an overall above average look in the rainfall department.

In the short-term period, this is highlighted between what falls Wednesday-Friday.

Though severe weather won’t be a concern, heavy rain will during the aforementioned timeframe. We still think widespread 1.5”+ amounts are likely for many area rain gauges. As of now, severe weather isn’t expected, locally, based on the SLP track. Further east into Ohio, a few severe storms will be on the table. We’ll monitor for any last minute west adjustments leading into the system.

Widespread, soaking rains will turn more “showery” in nature Friday before dry air takes firm control and provides a pleasant Saturday.

Don’t get used to the dry weather. Despite the warmer trend, another round of rain and storms can be expected the 2nd half of the weekend into early next week.

Upcoming *10-Day Rainfall Projection: 1.5” to 2.5”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/08/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-50/

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