Category: Football

Aug 27

Checking In On Those Test Cases…

Updated 08.27.22 @ 7:53a

First and foremost, happy college football season! Sure, this weekend’s games aren’t terribly exciting, but LIVE college football is back and sets the stage for an incredible slate this upcoming weekend! I’m looking forward to being on the Plains of southern Alabama next weekend to celebrate the return of another special Auburn football season!

I will still be posting a Client Video later today, but wanted to dedicate this post to the two test cases in the week ahead:

I. Strength and magnitude of the cooler air to open September

II. Pre Labor Day tropical excitement in the Gulf of Mexico

Let’s start with the cooler potential. The European has trended closer to the GFS solution in recent runs, opening September on a cooler than normal note. The GFS is still more aggressive with the cool down to open up meteorological fall, but the European is trending more and more towards this solution. What’s at stake? A couple of days to open the month with lows into the lower 50s (mid to upper 50s inside the circle, itself) and highs in the upper 70s with that classic autumn sky. Side note: a significantly warmer (hotter) pattern looms thereafter.

Now let’s talk about the tropics. Not much has changed here with the vast differences in handling the lead feature (threat in the Gulf of Mexico as Labor Day weekend nears). This morning, the GFS continues to beat the drum on this potential while the European isn’t excited in the least. We note the European ensemble product isn’t even hinting at the threat of a depression to develop during this period. It’ll be mighty interesting to see how this plays out in the coming days. We should gain more clarity early in the work week. I will say, should something form, it appears to be an eventual southern of western Gulf threat from this distance.

GFS remains bullish on a tropical threat in the Gulf Labor Day weekend.
Meanwhile, the European is having none of it…

Video discussion looking over 12z data and jumping ahead to the next big surge of warmth will be online later today.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/27/checking-in-on-those-test-cases/

Aug 20

Meteorological Fall Set To Kick-Off Cooler Than Normal?

With only (11) days left in meteorological summer, thoughts continue to focus more on the upcoming fall season.

This was a photo I snapped in the Eagle Creek community back in October of 2013!

While fall foliage is still 5-6 weeks away from “prime time,” medium range computer models continue to suggest the new season will kick off on an unseasonably cool note.

Meteorological fall begins Sept. 1st and runs through the end of November. With that said, you don’t need me to tell you that Labor Day can still produce “summer-like” heat around these parts. On average across central Indiana, we’d expect Labor Day weekend to produce highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s.

That might be a different story this year as a negative EPO pattern dominates. The end result will likely feature a rather anomalous trough digging into our portion of the country to open up the new season. This is supported with solid agreement between the GEFS and EPS as shown below:

This will likely result in temperatures around 10 degrees (F) below average and most certainly serve as notice that a new season is upon us.

Now will this be an official end to summer-like warmth? Likely not, as there are reasons to believe unseasonably warm weather will build back into the region behind this cool blast. While we don’t want to use this post as our official fall outlook, despite it likely feeling very much like fall as the 1st full weekend of college football kicks off, we think there’s likely more warmth in the tank before we can signal the “all clear” on Summer ’19…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/20/meteorological-fall-set-to-kick-off-cooler-than-normal/

Aug 26

Extended Summer…

Meteorological fall begins Saturday, but Mother Nature has other plans in store as we move through the next 2-3 weeks.  If you’re a fan of summer, you’ll like what’s in store, as a dominant eastern ridge grabs the headlines.  Sure, the “axis” of the ridge will retrograde Week 2, but the pattern will likely remain significantly warmer than average through the first couple weeks of September, overall.

Both the GEFS (courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com) and EPS (courtesy of weathermodels.com) show the overall warm pattern as we approach mid-September.

Averages begin to fall in more significant fashion as we transition through the month of September. More specifically, average high temperatures of 83° on the 1st fall to 78° on the 15th.  Given the looks of the pattern, highs in the mid to upper 80s (and perhaps a couple of 90° days) will likely be common through the first couple weeks of the new month.  Overnight lows will remain oppressive, as well.

If you’re longing for cooler, more fall-like, air, hang in there. Pattern drivers are likely to become more conducive for increasingly refreshing times around these parts as mid-September approaches.

PS: Can you believe we’re only (5) days away from the return of college football?!  That alone will help us traverse the next couple weeks of warmer times.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/08/26/extended-summer/

Jan 23

Overall Mild Pattern Not Without Challenges…

I. Areas of light snow and freezing drizzle will continue into the overnight hours and on into Wednesday morning. Watch for slick spots overnight-Wednesday morning.

II. Clouds will finally begin to erode Wednesday night and set us up for plentiful sunshine Thursday.  Along with the increasing sunshine, a southwesterly air flow will develop and assist with providing a new “warming” trend as we close the work week.  Mid-40s are ahead Thursday and lower-50s Friday.  A “big hair warning” is officially in effect Friday as winds gust between 30-40 MPH Friday. 🙂

III. Our next storm system arrives on the scene overnight Friday into Saturday with light rain.

IV. We’re also monitoring the possibility of a “sneaky” snow maker Sunday night into Monday in a fast northwest flow.  Light snow will impact portions of the Ohio Valley, but we’ll have to fine tune things over the next few days with respect to specific track and placement of the swath of accumulating snow.  Stay tuned!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/01/23/overall-mild-pattern-not-without-challenges/

Oct 14

Sunday Morning Showers; Crashing Temperatures…

A cold front is on the move this evening. After a summer-like Saturday (that likely featured the last 80° day until next spring), MUCH cooler air will invade Sunday.

This evening, showers and thunderstorms, some of which have been strong-to-severe, are ongoing to our west and northwest. As the cold front draws closer, showers will push into central Indiana Sunday morning (mid-to-late morning). These showers and embedded thunder will be much weaker than what’s currently impacting our western neighbors. Here’s an idea what the radar may look like around 10a.

The bigger story Sunday will be the falling temperatures. Early risers will be greeted by temperatures around 70°, but these mild readings will transition to downright chilly conditions before sunset: 50s by lunch and 40s shortly after dark. Lows Monday and Tuesday mornings will fall into the 30s for outlying communities.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/14/sunday-morning-showers-crashing-temperatures/

Nov 26

Sunshine Returns This Weekend; Heavy Rain Event Looms…

screen-shot-2016-11-26-at-8-16-29-amHighlights:

  • Sunshine finally returns
  • Big time rain maker early next week
  • Trending colder to open December

Sunshine Slowly Returns…We’ve been socked in with clouds, chilly conditions, and overall gloomy weather for the past several days.  Thankfully, sunshine will eventually return this weekend.  Today has started with overcast skies, but slow improvements should provide an increasingly sunny sky as the day wears on.  Seasonable temperatures can be expected today.

The second half of the weekend will feature more in the way of sunshine, but our next storm system will be awaiting on deck by this point.  Southwest winds will turn increasingly breezy by the PM and clouds will quickly increase yet again.  Those clouds will yield rain as early as the wee morning hours Monday (well before sunrise).  Periods of heavy rain can be expected Monday and even a thunderstorm by afternoon/ evening.

Most of the heavy rain will fall Monday, but we’ll maintain mention of showers in our forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. A second wave of low pressure will develop along a pressing front the middle of next week and spread moisture northeast. The “leader” storm system is much easier to forecast than the “follower” in this scenario.  The details are muddy at this point concerning the extent of how far west precipitation can make it.  Know that we’re keeping a close eye on things.  For the sake of this particular forecast, we’ll include mention of rain showers mixing with snow showers as colder air moves in Thursday.  Stay tuned.

The end of the week will feature a colder trend as we usher in December.

One final item on the agenda this morning- with this being Iron Bowl Saturday, we can’t leave you without wishing you an energetic WAR EAGLE!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.25-1.75 (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/26/sunshine-returns-this-weekend-heavy-rain-event-looms/

Oct 06

Thursday Evening Rambles…

1.) Matthew is rumbling towards the east coast of FL this evening and data continues to suggest a landfall near West Palm Beach late tonight or during the predawn hours Friday.  Regardless, an extended period of hurricane conditions, beach erosion, surge, and heavy rain await the FL peninsula.

For the Space Coast region, this very well could be the most significant hurricane the area has seen.  Our thoughts and prayers continue for our family and friends in Matthew’s path.

Radar around 8p Thursday.

Radar around 8p Thursday.

Forecast radar 1a Friday.

Forecast radar 1a Friday.

Most model data likes the “loop de loop” idea and potentially brings Matthew back in for a second FL landfall early next week (in a much weaker state, thankfully, due to upwelling and shear).

al14_current2.) A cold front will pass through our neck of the woods as we put a wrap on the work week.  While moisture is limited with the front, a much cooler air mass will greet us out the door Saturday morning.  A light shower is possible Friday afternoon or evening, but this won’t be a big deal and most high school football games will remain dry.  Temperatures Saturday morning will be in the 40s with lingering low clouds and areas of fog possible.  We should shake the morning low cloudiness and allow for sunshine most of the day.  Temperatures will remain crisp; generally in the lower to middle 60s for highs.

A chilly start is anticipated Saturday morning.

A chilly start is anticipated Saturday morning.

The weekend into early next week will remain pleasant, with chilly, clear nights and lots of sunshine during the day, along with cool afternoon highs.

3.)  The longer term pattern through at least the middle of October is one that features anomalous warmth and dry conditions.  In fact, it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility for afternoon highs to reach close to 80 once again towards Day 10…. We shall see.

We warm back up above average in the 6-10 Day period

We warm back up above average in the 6-10 Day period

A mainly dry pattern continues

A mainly dry pattern continues

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/06/thursday-evening-rambles-3/

Sep 16

Turning Unsettled This Afternoon…

The initial push of moisture will ride into central IN this afternoon (likely between 2p-3p time frame).  Embedded thunder will be a good bet, but the storms pushing in should be in a weakened state compared to what our neighbors to our west will experience a few hours earlier.

1Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday.  The good news?  After the initial round of showers this afternoon, most high school football games could very well be dry tonight.

2

3It won’t rain the entire time Saturday, but scattered storms are a good bet through the day.  Some locally heavy rainfall is likely, but rain amounts won’t be uniform.  On average 0.75″-1″ is a good bet.

5

kind_2016091521_tqpfSunday will be the pick of the weekend as high pressure builds in and supplies a drier air mass.  Flipping the page to next week, the big story will be a late season push of summer heat followed by a significant cold front next weekend.  Behind this front, a true push of bonafide autumn air will push in.  Sweaters and jackets will likely be needed as we put a wrap on September…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/16/turning-unsettled-this-afternoon/

Aug 14

Heavy Rain Continues; Early Fall Preview Late Next Weekend…

Screen Shot 2016-08-14 at 9.57.05 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of heavy rain
  • Drying out come mid week
  • Cold front arrives next weekend

Flooding Concerns…Renewed heavy rain is pushing through central IN as we write up the morning forecast package.  This conveyor belt of moisture will continue to lift northeast and eventually break up and diminish during the late morning and early afternoon.  Despite scattered showers this afternoon, drier times will ensue, overall.  Unfortunately, this drier period won’t last long as another slug of moisture lifts north late tonight and continues Monday.   Additional heavy rainfall can be expected, including the potential of rainfall rates approaching 2″+/ hour.  Given the water-logged soils across the region, concerns of flash flooding are very high Monday.

Eventually, we’ll dry things out come mid week and introduce more sunshine back into the forecast.  Our next item on the agenda will be a cold front that will sweep through the state Saturday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the boundary as it moves through the region before much drier and cooler air blows in for the second half of the weekend.  In fact, a welcomed early fall preview awaits come Sunday.  Thoughts of football, pumpkin “everything,” bonfires, and apple cider will be prevalent this time next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2″-4″ (locally heavier totals)

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/08/14/heavy-rain-continues-early-fall-preview-late-next-weekend/

Sep 13

Cool, Crisp Start; Dry Weather Continues…

Screen Shot 2015-09-13 at 8.34.01 AMHighlights:

  • Chilly start
  • Sunshine galore
  • Moderating temperatures

October-like weather will remain in place today, complete with wall-to-wall sunshine.  We suggest finding a way to get outside to watch the Colts kick off the season!  Dry conditions will remain with us for the balance of the work week before we introduce shower and thunderstorm chances into the forecast heading into next weekend.  Timing differences are there in regards to the arrival of our next cold front, but for now we’ll mention scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/09/13/cool-crisp-start-dry-weather-continues/

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