Updated 02.17.22 @ 7:35a
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Category: Flooding
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-spring-fling-early-next-week-but-a-lot-of-winter-is-left-in-the-tank/
Feb 16
Client Brief: Significant And Multifaceted Storm Impacts Region Thursday…
Updated 02.16.22 @ 8p
Type: Impactful Wintry Weather, Flooding, and Severe Storms
What: Impactful wintry weather; Localized flood threat; Severe storm potential downstate
When: Thursday
Temperatures: Lower 50s midnight Thursday crashing into the lower 20s by midnight Friday morning.
Wind: Variable 15-30 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal (due to heavy, wet nature of the snow) across northern Indiana; non-existent elsewhere
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required
Summary: A strengthening area of low pressure will move across the state Thursday afternoon, dragging a cold front southeast. Heavy rain will be widespread across the state Thursday morning. As cold air presses southeast, the 1st round of precipitation will transition to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain across far northern Indiana (along and north of a line from Rensselaer up to South Bend) mid to late morning. A secondary area of precipitation will then be blossoming off to our southwest and push northeast into the state through the afternoon. Central Indiana and points south will continue to deal with rain, along with falling temperatures, while downstate (Bloomington over to Greensburg and points south) gears up for the potential of severe t-storms in the 3p to 6p window. Any severe storms that do develop will be capable of producing damaging straight line winds.
Meanwhile, cold air will continue to settle southeast and lead to a transition from heavy rain to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain for northern Indy ‘burbs towards 3 or 4p, eventually making it into the city, itself, in time for the evening rush.
Before the transition to a wintry mix, widespread 1”-2” of rain with locally heavier amounts can be expected across central Indiana, including Indianapolis. Further north, heavy snow can be expected, including widespread 4”-8” amounts with locally heavier totals. I think the latest high resolution NAM is handling snowfall numbers quite well this evening and don’t see any reason to disagree with these numbers.
A dusting to coating of snow (less than half an inch) is possible into the city as the sleet and freezing rain mixture transitions to the white stuff prior to precipitation exiting the region Thursday night. As temperatures crash, a “flash freeze” is possible even into southern Indiana by Friday morning.
Confidence: High
Next Update: 7:30a Thursday
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-significant-and-multifaceted-storm-impacts-region-thursday/
Feb 16
VIDEO: Significant Storm Delivers A Wide Range Of Impacts; MJO Influence On The Longer Range…
Updated 02.16.22 @ 7:21a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-significant-storm-delivers-a-wide-range-of-impacts-mjo-influence-on-the-longer-range/
Jul 11
Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…
Updated 07.11.21 @ 8:18a
Forecast Period: 07.11.21 through 07.18.21
A persistent and rather stagnant upper pattern will remain in place through the upcoming 7-day forecast period. A cut off upper low that will be responsible for our unsettled conditions to open the work week will lose it’s influence on our weather as it gets absorbed in the westerlies by midweek. This will result in coverage of showers/ storms going from “numerous” (now through Tuesday) to “isolated” Wednesday and Thursday. Don’t get used to the drier trend though as a new trough will settle into the Plains during the 2nd half of the week, increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms yet again Friday through next weekend. With such a rich, tropical airmass in place, the threat of localized flash flooding will remain high.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-38/
Jul 09
Timing Out Weekend Rain And Looking Ahead At The Pattern For The Remainder Of July…
Updated 07.09.21 @ 8:13a
Drier and cooler air will be with us to close out the work week, but changes are on the horizon just in time for the weekend.
It still appears as if we will deal with a couple rounds of more widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday. The first complex will likely impact central and southern Indiana Saturday morning (bracketing the hours of 8a to noon west to east for round 1).
High resolution guidance then delivers a 2nd round of showers and thunderstorms into the state during the late afternoon and evening hours.
A moist southerly flow will continue to impact the region into early next week, keeping periods of scattered showers and embedded thunder in our forecast Sunday through Tuesday (most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours).
While we can’t completely rule out rain Wednesday, coverage should be less compared to what we’ll see in the short-term period. Rain and storm coverage will then ramp back up the 2nd half of the week into next weekend. All in all, it’s a very active pattern that will undoubtedly produce localized flash flooding across portions of the region.
Looking ahead, all indications continue to point towards above normal rainfall as we progress through the latter part of July. As has also been the case, we don’t see any sort of sustained heat on the horizon through the end of the month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/timing-out-weekend-rain-and-looking-ahead-at-the-pattern-for-the-remainder-of-july/