Category Archives: Flooding

Only Going To Get Worse Before It Gets Better…

The pattern into the medium range period continues to look like a broken record: excessively wet. Unfortunately, flood and flash flood warnings will continue to likely be issued over the next 7-10 days on an almost daily basis for at least portions of the immediate viewing area.

Current Flash Flood Guidance can be found below:

In most cases across central and southern Indiana, we’re only talking about rainfall of 1″ to 1.5″ in an hour’s timeframe that will cause flash flooding. 3 hour guidance is in the 1.5″ to 2″ range.

Tuesday will feature less overall aerial coverage of showers and thunderstorms (widely scattered) as compared to the past few days. However, we’re tracking (2) surface waves that will result in more widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday and again over the weekend into early next week with a moisture-rich, tropical southwesterly air flow in place.

After less rainfall coverage Tuesday, heavy rain and storms will return Wednesday PM into Thursday.
A wave of low pressure and vigorous upper level energy will lead to a threat of severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening.

As mentioned above, severe weather is possible Wednesday afternoon and evening as vigorous upper level energy accompanies the surface wave scooting across the lower OHV. This will warrant our attention over the upcoming 48 hours and will likely lead to the Storm Prediction Center expanding the current Slight Risk further northwest with future updates.

Fingers are still crossed for briefly drier conditions Friday before we reload the moisture with a persistent southwesterly air flow this weekend. This will promote additional concerns for heavy rainfall over the weekend.

At times, this moist southwest flow will help precipitable water values exceed 2″. Needless to say, concern will remain very high for additional flooding problems over the weekend into early next week.

Widespread additional rainfall of 2.5″ to 3.5″ is a good bet with locally heavier amounts over the upcoming week.

More on the long range pattern into the Weeks 3/4 period tomorrow!

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Localized Bands Of Flooding Rain Possible This Afternoon-Evening…

An upper level low will have control of our weather today. We’re seeing widespread mostly light rain this morning and that will begin to diminish as we move into the late morning and early afternoon.

We’ll then likely see a few breaks in the cloud cover and that will serve to provide just enough energy to help showers and thunderstorms redevelop by mid to late afternoon. With a juicy air mass in place (precipitable water values will exceed 2″ in spots), locally heavy rain is likely.

With weak steering flows in place this afternoon and evening, the concern we have is that localized bands of this heavy rain/ embedded thunder will “train” over the same areas, potentially leading to flash flooding in localized spots across central Indiana.

We expect these south-to-north moving bands of rain to begin to organize towards the 4p to 6p time frame, continuing into the evening and nighttime hours. Where the heavier rain bands organize, a quick 2″ to 3″ of rain is likely this evening.

More around the #AGwx report for the upcoming week will be posted later this morning!

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Watching From Afar: Summer-Like Warmth, But Heaviest Rain/ Severe Threat Remains NW Of Immediate Region…

An expanding upper level ridge will drive the warmest air so far this season into the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana, as we get set to close the work week and head into next week.

This will not only deliver mid to upper 80s, but the first truly “oppressive” feel of the season as moist Gulf of Mexico air flows northward into the Ohio Valley. At times, dew points will approach the 70 degree mark.

Though the pattern will turn warm and humid, the worst of the heavy rain events are expected to remain to our west-northwest. (Unfortunately, this pattern is one that will lead to a multi-day severe weather and eventual flood threat for the Plains into the upper Midwest).

That isn’t to say we won’t see rain and storms at times (most numerous Thursday night across northern and east-central Indiana, Sunday afternoon across all of the state, and again Tuesday), but instead the most concentrated heavy rain and severe potential will be focused from OK, MO, IA, and into MN and WI over the upcoming 7-day period. Instead of us looking at widespread 2″ to 4″ totals, we’re instead looking at 7-day rainfall amounts around an inch, with locally heavier amounts.

From a severe perspective, similar to the heavy rain events, this, too, is expected to remain to our west for the better part of the upcoming 7-day period. While storm chasers coverage on the Plains this weekend into next week, we’ll, thankfully, be watching the bulk of the action from afar for the better part of the period.

Days 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook, courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), can be found below:

Friday’s Severe Weather Outlook
Saturday’s Severe Weather Outlook
Sunday’s Severe Weather Outlook
Monday’s Severe Weather Outlook
Next Tuesday’s Severe Weather Outlook
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