Mar 04
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/03/04/client-video-discussion-on-the-heavy-rain-situation/
Dec 26
Saturday will dawn dry across the region, but that will quickly begin to change as morning progresses into afternoon. Moisture is streaming north and a “wavy” frontal system will remain…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/26/periods-of-heavy-rain/
Dec 25
Highlights:
Very Wet Period Before We Turn Colder…We hope you had a blessed Christmas full of joy, peace, and laughter!
It was a beautiful Christmas across the region, complete with temperatures reaching the 50 degree mark for the first time since 1987! Many would prefer cold and snow (yours truly included), but we couldn’t ask for better weather to get out and enjoy those new gifts from Santa! The countdown to Christmas 2016 begins now. 🙂
The weather will once again turn quite active around these parts as we head into the extended Christmas weekend. Waves of heavy rain will push north Saturday and grow heavy Saturday evening. Periodically heavy rain will continue Sunday. Flooding concerns are present as event rain totals of 3″-5″ should be widespread, with locally heavier amounts.
The other big weather item to note will be the tight temperature gradient from north to south Saturday evening. Note the modeled temperature forecast Saturday night, including temperatures ranging from the lower 40s north to the upper 60s south. Heads up for central IN communities, the cold air will win out Sunday as temperatures fall through the day after an early morning high.
Another push of heavy rain will surge into IN Monday as low pressure tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of low pressure will form along the Mid Atlantic coast Monday and provide interior portions of the NE an icy/ snowy combo to open the new work week.
Things will (FINALLY) begin to dry out and chill down as we rumble closer to closing 2015 and welcoming 2016. Though forecast models aren’t seeing much in the way of precipitation with the surge of cold air, don’t be surprised if we deal with scattered snow showers during the Thursday-Friday period as upper energy teams up with the arctic surge.
All-in-all, it’s a step in the right direction for establishing the winter pattern that we think lies ahead, but we caution with a positive AO, things are likely to still be transient over the first 7-10 days of January. Once to mid month, we still believe a sustained shift to colder, more wintry times loom.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/25/flooding-concerns/
Dec 24
First and foremost, Merry Christmas Eve to all! 🎅🏻 1.) After a busy Wednesday with severe weather and heavy rain across the region, high pressure will build in and provide…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/24/weather-highlights-as-we-go-into-christmas/
Dec 22
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/22/tuesday-evening-video-brief-severe-weather-possible-tomorrow/
Oct 05
There’s a whole slew of new products we’re going to start rolling out over the next several weeks, including more videos, as well. One of the new features is a nationwide weekly highlight map, helping showcase the big-ticket weather items that have our attention over the upcoming week. While we could side with going with fancy graphics, we chose to go the route of a hand drawn map for old time sakes. 🙂 This will be posted on Sunday or Monday of each week.
1.) The upper low associated with the catastrophic flooding in SC will continue to slowly pull away from the area as we progress into Tuesday. Our thoughts and prayers remain with the fine folks of South Carolina as recovery and clean up begins. Hard to believe areas of SC were in a significant drought as soon as last week. Those exact same areas have received as much as 25″-30″ of rain over the past 72 hours. Simply amazing stuff.
2.) A series of storm systems will clip the Pacific Northwest with heavy rain and wind as the week progresses- particularly mid week into the weekend.
3.) A storm system and significant moisture will move through the Four Corners region and into western Texas Wednesday into the weekend. Heavy rain and localized flooding will result.
4.) A cold front will move through the Mid West later this week with showers and embedded thunder, along with cooler air for the weekend.
As always, you can follow us on Twitter (@indywx) or e-mail us at bill@indywx.com for more on the variety of weather consulting we provide. Have a great day and God Bless!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/05/5408/
Aug 04
Mid and high level cloudiness continue to drift into the state this evening and we note some rain and storms downstate. Across central Indiana, all-in-all it’s a very pleasant evening, including very comfy temperatures and humidity levels for early August.
Model consensus today has been to shift the axis of heavy rain across southern Indiana Wednesday night and Thursday, including some locally heavy totals with flooding possible.
We show the GFS above and we note the European, NAM, and Canadian all agree with the overall idea of heaviest rain across southern Indiana and points south.
Just as we were beginning to get all modeling onboard with the southern shift, the latest high-resolution NAM has shifted back north rather considerably. Note the difference in rainfall totals expected from the high resolution NAM just from the 12z run to the latest 18z run.
No doubt the high resolution NAM is an anomaly, but we also can’t totally discard this solution just yet either based off the longer term projections and relative consistency just a couple days ago. The higher resolution models can handle these type systems better at times so we’ll keep a close eye on things.
Confidence should increase rather dramatically with tonight’s model runs and we’ll be up to watch those trickle in.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/04/model-consensus-is-south-with-thursday-rain-except-the-high-resolution-nam/
Aug 04
The morning is off to a beautiful start as drier air oozed into central IN overnight. Many reporting sites are returning numbers in the middle 50s this morning! Anyone else craving fall?
While a beautiful day is in store locally, we note clouds associated with a storm complex off to our northwest this morning. Some of these clouds could blow into central IN at some point this afternoon or evening.
As we fast forward to mid week the cold front that’s currently to our south will lift back north as a warm front. This will be in response to surface low pressure tracking in west to east fashion through the central Plains and into the Ohio Valley. That said, there’s precise details still not etched in stone that can, and will, have a large impact on our weather (locally) Wednesday night though Thursday. Note some of the differences with just a few of our forecast models in regards to heavy rainfall placement:
High-resolution NAM
GFS (interestingly the 6z GFS shunted the rain farther south):
Canadian:
* The European most closely resembles the 0z GFS run.
We still have time to sort through the details in regards to the precise placement of heaviest rain, but for now we’re keeping widespread rain and embedded thunder in the forecast Wednesday night through Thursday.
Note precipitable water values exceeding 2″ in spots Thursday. This will certainly support locally heavy rain and a flash flood threat for portions of the state during the aforementioned time period. Much more later this evening!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/04/still-some-question-on-northward-extent-of-heavy-rain/
Jul 26
Rain and storms now are resulting in flooding for some portions of the region. We look ahead to hot times this week and perhaps an early fall feel for early…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/26/sunday-evening-video-update/
Jul 19
A cold front will limp into the region to open the new week. A wave of low pressure will press east along the boundary Monday before the front pushes far…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/19/oppressive-feel-periods-of-storms/