Highlights:
- Unsettled times ahead
- Weekend heavy rain
- Much cooler and windy early next week
Enjoy The Dry Time While You Can…While most of Wednesday will remain rain-free, we do note the potential of a diminishing line of thunderstorms that could impact portions of far northwest sections of the state Wednesday morning. As mentioned, these should diminish relatively quickly and give way to a mostly dry day. A cold front will approach the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning and result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms during that time. Briefly drier air will arrive Thursday evening into Friday and we should wrap up the work week mainly dry.
We’ll take whatever dry weather we can get as the weekend still looks wet and stormy. We discussed the weekend setup this morning and thoughts haven’t changed a bit. Today’s model data continues to suggest we’re looking at periods of heavy rainfall with widespread weekend totals of 2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts possible). Of the two days, Saturday appears to offer up the most widespread rains, but we caution that the scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop Sunday will have the potential of depositing hefty totals in relative short order. Due to the projected steering currents, we’re also concerned for the possibility of “training” of heavy rain and that would quickly create a flash flood concern in localized areas. Stay tuned. Another item of interest is the possibility of “bust potential” with regard to the temperature forecast Saturday. Latest modeling wants to keep the warm front just south of the immediate region for most of the day now and, as such, we’ve trended cooler with Saturday’s temperatures before that warm southwesterly air flow wins out Sunday.
The warmth won’t last long as we quickly transition to a cooler west and northwest regime to open the work week. Along with the much cooler air, scattered showers and strong and gusty winds will be with us. We’ll finally begin to calm down with a very pleasant Tuesday expected.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 3.00″ – 4.00″
No doubt about it, today will be very wet across the entire region, including periods of heavy rain- especially across the western half of the state.
Tropical moisture will continue to stream into the state tonight into Tuesday. In fact, most intense rains will likely set up tonight and may feature “banding” signatures that would train over the same areas. Within these intense rain bands, prolific rainfall rates can be expected, enhancing the flash flood risk. Latest short-term model data shows this threat, and would place a premium focus on areas generally west of US-31. We’ll have to keep a close eye on things.
Plenty of “juice” is available to tap into across western sections tonight. Precipitable water values (PWATs) of 2″-2.5″ will be more than enough to fuel torrential rainfall.
Eventually (mid and late week), we’ll dry things out and a significant cool down is still in store developing this weekend into early next week. Lows will fall deep into the 50s with highs only in the 70s. Talk about an early taste of fall…
Unlike the localized banding features of the rain today, the rain shield should be much more widespread Monday into Tuesday. Factor in the hefty rain totals today into Sunday, combined with additional heavy rain Monday and Tuesday, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see a few double digit rainfall reports by the time all is said and done Wednesday night/ Thursday. Widespread 4″+ totals will be common across central IN by the time all is said and done.
Despite lackluster model output from our American suite (latest NAM and SREF data, for instance, paints rainfall totals under 1″ across most central IN neighborhoods), the European remains consistent on the evolution of things from this weekend into the middle of next week. We’ll lean more towards it’s solution at this juncture. Simply put, when you have a stalled frontal boundary entraining tropical moisture, expect problems. Precipitable water values will approach and even exceed 2″ at times this weekend. Dew points will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s along and south of the boundary. Where the boundary stalls will be key in determining the heaviest rain totals and resulting flood problems that will ensue. For now, here’s the best idea we have in regards to local 4″+ totals between this weekend and next Wednesday.
It should also be pointed out that we’re not looking at all day rains Saturday through Wednesday, but instead “waves” of moisture throughout the period. Areas of locally heavy rain will be with us, but we’ll also see dry periods in between. Thankfully, as we move into the latter portions of next week, drier times should return.