Category: Flooding

Mar 30

Saturday Evening Thoughts On The Pending Heavy Rain/ Severe Event…

Updated 03.30.24 @ 5:07p

There’s not much, if anything, to change regarding the setup and anticipated outcome of the Easter Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. Periods of heavy rain will get going Sunday PM and we’ll also need to watch for the threat of severe storms not only tomorrow afternoon/ evening but again Monday.

Midday models are latching onto a widespread 2”-4”+ event.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has increased the threat area tomorrow afternoon. Large hail is greatest concern but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

All modes of severe are on the table Monday, including tornado potential once again.

If all this wasn’t enough already, a much colder air mass will plunge into the region by midweek allowing rain to mix with and change to wet snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The snow may even be heavy enough for slushy accumulations in spots.

Spring at its finest across the great Hoosier state…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/30/saturday-evening-thoughts-on-the-pending-heavy-rain-severe-event/

Mar 30

Multiple Waves Of Heavy Rain On Deck; Severe Storm Risk As Well…

Updated 03.30.24 @ 7:16a

The combination of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary, increasingly warm and humid air, and multiple waves of low pressure riding along the aforementioned boundary will lead to several rounds of locally heavy rain and also pose a strong to severe storm risk as we go through the early stages of the new week.

Precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 1.5” to 2” at times early week (a tough feat to come by this time of year). This only raises confidence in the opportunity for this setup to generate periods of heavy, and eventually excessive, rainfall.

Widespread 3”+ totals can be expected by the time all is said and done, with locally heavier amounts.

If the heavy rain event wasn’t enough, we also need to be on guard for the threat of severe storms Sunday and Monday.

In particular, it’s Monday’s risk of severe that has us most concerned, including all modes (hail, wind, and a TOR threat). We recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and make sure to have a way to receive any warnings that may be issued.

The heavy rain event will come to an end by Tuesday evening, but if we didn’t have enough to track already, we’ll add in the potential of rain to mix with wet snow Wednesday. Regardless, expect a much colder and blustery time of things as this bigger storm departs by midweek.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/30/multiple-waves-of-heavy-rain-on-deck-severe-storm-risk-as-well/

Aug 09

Severe Weather And Localized Flooding Threat: Another One Of Those Days To Remain Weather-Aware…

Updated 08.09.23 @ 12:30a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/09/severe-weather-and-localized-flooding-threat-another-one-of-those-days-to-remain-weather-aware/

Mar 25

VIDEO: Winds Increase This Afternoon And Tracking Sunday Evening Storms; Strong Storm Potential Late Next Week? Longer Range Outlook Into Mid-April…

Updated 03.25.23 @ 8:08a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/25/video-winds-increase-this-afternoon-and-tracking-sunday-evening-storms-strong-storm-potential-late-next-week-longer-range-outlook-into-mid-april/

Mar 24

Fresh Batch Of HVY Rain Before Weekend Improvements…

Updated 03.24.23 @ 6:55a

Moderate to heavy rain has been falling through the night across the southern half of Indiana.

While rain will continue through the daytime downstate, it’s tonight that we’re most concerned around a renewed push of heavy rain that will likely push many creeks and streams into flood stage. This is all associated with a surface low that will lift northeast across the state and into the Great Lakes region. After southern Indiana takes the stage for heaviest rain through the daytime today, all of the region can expect to get in on the heavy rain act tonight. We bracket 11p to 3a for heaviest rain to fall through central Indiana.

A look at additional rain to come by noon Saturday:

The good news is that after tonight’s heavy rain, weather conditions will improve through the weekend. Our next storm system (much weaker) will arrive Monday but should be fairly moisture starved- certainly compared to our current storm. More on this and a long range look ahead Saturday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/24/fresh-batch-of-hvy-rain-before-weekend-improvements/

Mar 23

VIDEO: Rough 36-48 Hours Ahead Before A Calmer Weekend…

Updated 03.23.23 @ 7:58a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/23/video-rough-36-48-hours-ahead-before-a-calmer-weekend/

Mar 22

VIDEO: Focusing In On The Flood Threat To Close The Week…

Updated 03.22.23 @ 7:46a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/22/video-focusing-in-on-the-flood-threat-to-close-the-week/

Mar 21

VIDEO: Flood Event Looms For The Southern Ohio Valley Friday Into Saturday…

Updated 03.21.23 @ 6:55a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/21/video-flood-event-looms-for-the-southern-ohio-valley-friday-into-saturday/

Mar 20

VIDEO: Still Targeting A Heavy Late Week Rain Event; New European Weeklies Are In…

Updated 03.20.23 @ 5:34p

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/20/video-still-targeting-a-heavy-late-week-rain-event-new-european-weeklies-are-in/

Mar 19

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

Updated 03.19.23 @ 12:40p

I. By late-March standards, we’re looking at another downright frigid day (yes, even with that increasingly high sun angle these days). Overnight lows bottomed out deep into the 10s this morning. We’ll, thankfully, begin to moderate this afternoon and that same trend will carry us into the 60s by Thursday. Hang in there.

II. Unfortunately, that moderating trend will also come with renewed unsettled weather. While the work week will get off to a nice start, rain returns Tuesday night as an increasingly moist southwesterly air flow takes hold.

III. It still doesn’t appear as if the lead wave of moisture Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be a big deal but it will set the tone for what lies ahead to close the work week. We continue to circle Friday as the day that will bring heaviest rain and an associated flood threat. Widespread 3”+ rain amounts remain on the table and we’ll be able to hone in on more specific placement and amounts as we get through the next 24-48 hours.

IV. If that’s not enough, guidance brings another organized system through the region late next weekend, as well. Needless to say, well above normal precipitation is expected over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days and flood risks will have to be monitored closely as this pattern evolves.

V. A reinforcing chilly airmass will likely follow next Sunday’s system.

Side note: Monday’s normally scheduled client video discussion will be posted Monday evening due to travel. I apologize for any inconvenience and look forward to reviewing fresh 12z guidance concerning the items above (and more) tmrw evening.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/03/19/sunday-afternoon-rambles-6/

IndyWx.com