Category: First frost

Forecast Period: 09.30.19 through 10.06.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Though significant cooling will take place later this week and weekend, overall, the period will run above average in the temperature department with the near record heat to open the period.

Severe Weather: Organized severe weather isn’t expected during the forecast period.

Frost/ Freeze: In addition to the Rockies, the upper Mid West, northern Great Lakes region, and interior Northeast will likely receive their first frost or freeze of the season Friday and/ or Saturday morning.

Drought Monitor: Widespread dry to droughty conditions exist across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Ohio Valley and lower Michigan. Portions of northern IL into northern IN and lower MI cashed in on excessive rainfall late last week and show greatly improved conditions from a drought perspective with this week’s update. Unfortunately, the cold front that’s set to deliver the much cooler air later this week won’t have much moisture to work with and an overall dry time of things should continue for the better part of the region.

Summary: A strong southwesterly air flow will promote anomalous heat as we traverse the first half of the work week. In some cases, records will fall across the Ohio Valley region. Looking ahead, a stout cold front will sink south in the Wednesday evening-Thursday time frame. A few showers are likely ahead of the front, but significant or widespread rainfall isn’t anticipated. The much bigger deal will be the significantly cooler air that arrives Thursday evening into the weekend. We’ll go from temperatures around 20 degrees above normal to open the work week to temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal by late week.

The next best shot of organized beneficial rainfall will arrive late Sunday into early Monday of next week…

Forecast Period: 09.22.19 through 09.29.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Well above average temperatures are expected through the period.

Severe Weather: Organized severe weather isn’t expected through the forecast period.

Frost/ Freeze: The growing season will come to an end this week across the central Rockies (frost and freeze warnings are up) and eventually across the Bitterroot range as lows fall into the mid and upper 20s by late week.

Drought Monitor: The latest drought monitor shows widespread dryness across the central and southern portions of the Ohio Valley, extending north and northwest into IA and MI. A good chunk of these dry/ droughty areas from MO, IA, and IL will be wiped out by Thursday’s update as beneficial soaking rains fall on this area today from the remnants of Imelda and a passing cold front.

Summary: A cold front and remnant moisture from Imelda will lead to better rain chances across central Indiana this evening into early Monday morning. With that said, the widespread soaking rains our friends just west of our area are receiving this morning will diminish as they move into central Indiana tonight. While there will be a couple of exceptions (with heavier rainfall totals), most central Indiana rain gauges will likely pick up between 0.25″ and 0.50″ tonight. Thereafter, temperatures will trend cooler (more seasonable) for the early and middle part of the work week before an expansive ridge engulfs the eastern portion of the country late week into Week 2. This will promote not only well above average warmth, but in some cases rival records.