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Category: First frost
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/03/video-this-is-more-like-it-talking-frost-potential-next-week-along-with-lake-effect/
Sep 30
Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…
Forecast Period: 09.30.19 through 10.06.19
7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.
7-Day Temperatures: Though significant cooling will take place later this week and weekend, overall, the period will run above average in the temperature department with the near record heat to open the period.
Severe Weather: Organized severe weather isn’t expected during the forecast period.
Frost/ Freeze: In addition to the Rockies, the upper Mid West, northern Great Lakes region, and interior Northeast will likely receive their first frost or freeze of the season Friday and/ or Saturday morning.
Drought Monitor: Widespread dry to droughty conditions exist across the lower Ohio Valley into the central Ohio Valley and lower Michigan. Portions of northern IL into northern IN and lower MI cashed in on excessive rainfall late last week and show greatly improved conditions from a drought perspective with this week’s update. Unfortunately, the cold front that’s set to deliver the much cooler air later this week won’t have much moisture to work with and an overall dry time of things should continue for the better part of the region.
Summary: A strong southwesterly air flow will promote anomalous heat as we traverse the first half of the work week. In some cases, records will fall across the Ohio Valley region. Looking ahead, a stout cold front will sink south in the Wednesday evening-Thursday time frame. A few showers are likely ahead of the front, but significant or widespread rainfall isn’t anticipated. The much bigger deal will be the significantly cooler air that arrives Thursday evening into the weekend. We’ll go from temperatures around 20 degrees above normal to open the work week to temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal by late week.
The next best shot of organized beneficial rainfall will arrive late Sunday into early Monday of next week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/30/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update-8/
Sep 27
VIDEO: From Record Heat To A Predominantly Cooler Pattern Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/27/video-from-record-heat-to-a-predominantly-cooler-pattern-ahead/
Sep 22
Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…
Forecast Period: 09.22.19 through 09.29.19
7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.
7-Day Temperatures: Well above average temperatures are expected through the period.
Severe Weather: Organized severe weather isn’t expected through the forecast period.
Frost/ Freeze: The growing season will come to an end this week across the central Rockies (frost and freeze warnings are up) and eventually across the Bitterroot range as lows fall into the mid and upper 20s by late week.
Drought Monitor: The latest drought monitor shows widespread dryness across the central and southern portions of the Ohio Valley, extending north and northwest into IA and MI. A good chunk of these dry/ droughty areas from MO, IA, and IL will be wiped out by Thursday’s update as beneficial soaking rains fall on this area today from the remnants of Imelda and a passing cold front.
Summary: A cold front and remnant moisture from Imelda will lead to better rain chances across central Indiana this evening into early Monday morning. With that said, the widespread soaking rains our friends just west of our area are receiving this morning will diminish as they move into central Indiana tonight. While there will be a couple of exceptions (with heavier rainfall totals), most central Indiana rain gauges will likely pick up between 0.25″ and 0.50″ tonight. Thereafter, temperatures will trend cooler (more seasonable) for the early and middle part of the work week before an expansive ridge engulfs the eastern portion of the country late week into Week 2. This will promote not only well above average warmth, but in some cases rival records.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/22/weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update-7/
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/12/flipping-the-script-from-the-warm-open-to-fall/
Oct 10
First Frost Of The Season Comes Right On Schedule…
The average date for the first frost and freeze in Indianapolis takes place on October 11th and 14th, respectively. Right on cue, the first frost of the season will take place for most central Indiana neighborhoods over the weekend. If you happen to miss out on the frosty conditions this week, reinforcing chilly air will descend on the region early next week.
We forecast (3) of the upcoming (7) nights to fall into the 30s. This is, obviously, a significant change from the extended summer like conditions we’ve been dealing with as of late. One primary driver behind the significantly cooler pattern has to do with the change in the PNA. The shift towards a positive PNA will result in the cooler air remaining in place with more staying power than the fleeting cool shots of a few weeks ago.
A series of cold fronts will sweep through the Ohio Valley over the upcoming couple of weeks and each will likely feature progressively cooler conditions.
With the positive PNA in place, it’s no surprise to see the mean trough setting up shop over the eastern portion of the country.
At the surface, we see the cool pattern taking hold into not only the short-term, but the 10-15 day range, as well.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/10/first-frost-of-the-season-comes-right-on-schedule/
Oct 09
Fall Arrives In Earnest Here…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/09/fall-arrives-in-earnest-here/
Oct 08
One More Summer-Like Day Before A Big Change…
High pressure and warm southwesterly winds will lead to one more summer-like day before significant changes take place. Plentiful sunshine can be expected Tuesday with temperatures closer to a record high (88° set in 1939) than the average of 68°.
A cold front will sweep through the region Wednesday evening and will lead to a better chance of more concentrated showers and thunderstorms for our hump day. Precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 2″ Wednesday afternoon which is almost unheard of by October standards. As a result, a couple of the storms may be accompanied by locally heavy rainfall.
Winds of change will be blowing in earnest Wednesday night and Thursday morning and a legit fall feel will greet us out the door! Most of central Indiana can expect temperatures to be falling into the 40s Thursday morning along with a nice northwest breeze.
Longer term, a new storm system (including remnant moisture from Sergio) is expected to impact our weekend weather. We’ll trend our forecast wetter with reviewing some of the latest data. Sunday appears to be the wettest day.
An even more impressive push of fall air will follow on the heels of Sergio’s remnants early next week, including the potential of frost for more of the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/08/one-more-summer-like-day-before-a-big-change/
Oct 08
Watching Michael; November-Like Pattern Looms…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/08/watching-michael-november-like-pattern-looms/
Oct 07
Looking At The Week Ahead: Significant Changes To A MUCH Cooler Pattern Loom…
We’re opening the new week with the same old unseasonably warm and muggy weather pattern that was with us the majority of last week, but significant changes loom during the week ahead. Ultimately, summer will be laid to rest (finally) and a legitimate, “stick and hold” fall pattern will take hold. The transition will feature a “game changer” of a midweek cold front that will take us from an August to a November feel in as little as 24 hours. Here are some highlights between now and then:
I. A strong ridge will continue to promote an unseasonably warm and muggy feel by early-October standards. Scattered “splash and dash” storms are possible through the early portion of the week, but organized significant rain isn’t anticipated.
II. TD 14 will strengthen into Tropical Storm Michael later today and eventually a hurricane before making landfall along the Florida panhandle during the middle of the week. The remnant moisture of Michael will then race northeast and impact the flood-ravaged Carolinas during the latter stages of the work week.
III. As Michael’s remnant moisture tracks northeast into the Carolinas, a strong cold front will sweep through the Mid West and Ohio Valley. Better chances of organized showers and thunderstorms will arrive ahead of the front Wednesday. Once the front passes, a dramatic wind shift to the northwest will push a MUCH cooler and drier air mass into the region.
IV. We note the PNA (Pacific North America pattern) is flipping to a positive state and that will drive a more sustained period of colder air during the medium and longer range period- or mid and late October.
The air will grow cold enough to support the potential of frost during the 5-10 day period on at least a couple of nights. Additionally, reinforcing chilly air may ignite the lake effect to our north and northeast during Week 2… “Times, they are a changing!”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/10/07/looking-at-the-week-ahead-significant-changes-to-a-much-cooler-pattern-loom/