Category: First frost

Another Problem Brought On By Dry Ground…

The upcoming (10) days will offer little, if any, relief from the recent dry stretch. Note the expanding (albeit still localized in the grand scheme of things) area of dry over the past (30) days:

Some areas from south-central IL into central IN have only seen 0.10” to 0.50” over the past month.

While a cold front will slip through the state Thursday, only isolated, weak showers are expected. Most will avoid any rain (best chance of seeing a passing shower will be across northern IN but even these won’t amount to much).

Of more interest will be the true jab of fall air behind the boundary. The dry ground will aid in allowing temperatures to fall to lower levels than if we had recently been dealing with wet conditions. In fact, outlying areas across central and northern parts of the state can expect the first frost of the season (2-3 weeks earlier than average) this weekend into early next week with overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 30s.

Quick follow up: Many have asked, and we are safe along the beaches of Walton Co. here in the Florida panhandle. Sally (now a category 2, 100 MPH hurricane) is making landfall near Gulf Shores, AL- 150 mi. to our west. We’ve accumulated over 15” of rain since 12a Tuesday and torrential downpours continue. Early this morning winds have gusted over 60 MPH and water spouts have been observed just off the coast of where we’re staying. As long as we maintain power, we’ll have a fresh video post later today.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/09/16/another-problem-brought-on-by-dry-ground/

VIDEO: Rain Develops By Evening; Potential Of Pre-Halloween Snow?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/15/video-rain-develops-by-evening-potential-of-pre-halloween-snow/

VIDEO: Frosty Midweek; Colder And Active Stretch Of Weather For Late October?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/14/video-frosty-midweek-colder-and-active-stretch-of-weather-for-late-october/

Harvest ’19: Tis The Season For Changeable Weather Patterns…

*Starting November 1st, our weekly agriculture and harvest updates will transition to weekly winter storm outlooks. We’ll maintain a lot of the feedback y’all have provided with the new weekly winter products. Come next growing season, the weekly agriculture and severe weather updates will return.

Forecast Period: 10.13.19 through 10.20.19

7-Day Precipitation: Below average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Below average temperatures are expected overall throughout the period.

Severe Weather: Severe weather isn’t anticipated through the period.

Frost/ Freeze: Many across the central and northern Ohio Valley have now recorded their first frost or freeze of the season. Additional frosty mornings are ahead during the upcoming forecast period with Thursday morning looking like the coldest as of now. The first frost and/ or freeze of the season will continue to advance southeast with the southern Appalachians likely putting an end to their growing season by Thursday morning.

Drought Monitor: The southern and eastern portion of the Ohio Valley remains in either a drought or abnormally dry state. Unfortunately, heaviest rains with Friday’s cold front targeted areas west or north of these areas. While the upcoming week won’t provide significant relief, the drivers behind the pattern ahead promise to deliver more frequent and beneficial precipitation events in the next 2-3 weeks.

Summary: The upcoming 7-day period will feature a quiet and pleasant open to the week before a fast moving system passes Tuesday evening with a round of showers followed by a windy mid-week period. Strong and gusty northwest winds will drive another unseasonably chilly air mass into central Indiana Tuesday night through Thursday before our air flow backs around to the south into next weekend. This will provide for modifying temperatures Friday into Saturday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/13/harvest-19-tis-the-season-for-changeable-weather-patterns/

VIDEO: Timing Out Storm Systems In The Upcoming Week; Colder Late Month Trends…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/12/video-timing-out-storm-systems-in-the-upcoming-week-colder-late-month-trends/

VIDEO: Classic Early-Oct Weather Now; Strong Cold Front Hits Friday Evening…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/08/video-classic-early-oct-weather-now-strong-cold-front-hits-friday-evening/

VIDEO: Frosty Weekend? Talking WPAC Typhoon Impacts Downstream…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/07/video-frosty-weekend-talking-wpac-typhoon-impacts-downstream/

Harvest ’19: Weekly AG And Severe Weather Update…

Forecast Period: 10.06.19 through 10.13.19

7-Day Precipitation: Average precipitation is expected through the period.

7-Day Temperatures: Between some wide swings in the temperature department over the upcoming week, things should “balance out” right around seasonal norms when all is said and done.

Severe Weather: We’ll continue to monitor the possibility of a few strong storms Thursday evening into Friday as a potent cold front pushes across the region. A strong southerly flow will help to briefly pull a warmer and moist air mass north across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes and could be sufficient enough to promote strong-severe storms directly ahead of the boundary. We’ll have to fine tune timing in the days ahead, but target the period between late Thursday and Friday afternoon for now.

Frost/ Freeze: A killing freeze will put an end to the growing season across the Plains by late week and the season’s first frost will likely occur for many across the central and northern Ohio Valley next weekend.

Drought Monitor: Abnormally dry areas are still present across portions of east-central IN into Ohio with more widespread droughty areas across KY. Today’s weather system into early Monday will help our friends across southern IN and KY pick up beneficial rainfall.

Summary: A cold front will move through the area today into Monday morning with needed moisture, especially across southern areas of the viewing area. Cooler, drier air will settle into the state as we move through the early portion of the work week before things turn potentially stormy late week ahead of the next strong cold front. The coolest air so far this autumn season will arrive next weekend, including the potential of the first frost for some…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/06/harvest-19-weekly-ag-and-severe-weather-update/

Saturday Morning Rambles…

I. Our Saturday will get off to a stunning start. Despite some patchy fog here and there, look for plentiful sunshine and chilly temperatures in the low-mid 40s rising into the low-mid 70s for afternoon highs with increasing clouds.

II. Those increasing clouds will deliver showers by tonight across central Indiana and then more concentrated heavier rain downstate Sunday evening into the predawn Monday. Southern Indiana is needing a good soaking in a bad way and this system will at least help things slowly begin to improve…

Forecast radar 11p Saturday.
Forecast radar 9a Sunday.

Rainfall totals with this system across central Indiana should accumulate to the tune of 0.20 to 0.40 for most with heavier amounts approaching 1” across the IN-KY border.

Note this is where things are driest across the state per Thursday’s drought update.

III. Our next storm system will swing through here late in the work week. We’re timing Thursday PM into early Friday for a round of showers and potentially gusty thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through.

Behind this boundary, the coldest air of the fall so far will blow into town. We’re continuing to think many of the area can expect the first frost of the season next weekend.

IV. As we look ahead, it’s time to start putting more stock into other tools in the box. Case in point, the MJO is showing signs of less amplitude over the upcoming couple weeks followed by a strongly positive PNA. This supports colder signals in the period. We’ll dig in further in the days ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/05/saturday-morning-rambles-10/

VIDEO: Welcoming An Autumn Like Feel; Fairly Active Pattern In The Week Ahead…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/04/video-welcoming-an-autumn-like-feel-fairly-active-pattern-in-the-week-ahead/

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