Category: European Model

Our short-term weather pattern will be dominated by an upper level low (this morning) and a cold front (tomorrow). High pressure will build into the region over the weekend and help supply gorgeous conditions.

The best opportunity for widespread rain over the next week will take place today as the upper low impacts the region. With a tropical airmass in place, this feature will be able to produce a good soaking for most of central Indiana. Widespread moderate rain this morning will continue for the next few hours before being replaced with more scattered activity during the afternoon/ evening.

The next feature we’ll contend with is the cold front itself and it’s still slated for a Friday passage. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible ahead of the boundary but coverage shouldn’t be nearly as widespread as what we’re seeing this morning. Once the front blows through tomorrow afternoon, much drier and cooler air will arrive and stick around for a few days.

Dry conditions will stick around through the weekend and into early next week to result in perfect weather to get some of those outdoor chores knocked out before the warm, muggy stuff returns.

Speaking of that, as we look ahead, we’ll replace the refreshing air with a return of warmth and humidity during the 2nd half of next week. Note how the European ensemble shows the transition.

The JMA Weeklies (fresh in this morning) also show the warmth that looms through the better part of the 1st half of June.

We’ll have to keep close tabs on exactly where the upper level ridge sets up in the Week 2 time period. This will mean the difference between “splash and dash” storm coverage as the mugginess returns vs. more widespread, organized activity in what would be a northwest flow around the periphery of the ridge. Stay tuned.